Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest** — Villa looking to bounce back at home, but they're absolutely battered by injury right now. 🏥 Forest won't be an easy task despite their own wobbles.
Villa's been a mess lately: 1W in their last 5, and they're missing key players across defense and midfield. Forest aren't exactly flying either (1W, 2D), but they've showed grit with draws against Spurs and Liverpool. This one has "scrappy, low-scoring affair" written all over it.
Key storylines:
- **Aston Villa's injury crisis** — Onana (ACL), Madjo, Gomes (suspended), and others out; they're thin at the back and could really struggle
- **Forest's resilience** — Draws vs two title contenders suggest they're tougher than their record, and **Chris Wood** leads a compact shape
- **Villa's home record** — They *should* lean on Villa Park advantage, but form doesn't back it up; **Tammy Abraham** needs to deliver
Expected lineups:
- **Aston Villa**: Suzuki, Lindelöf, Maatsen, Torres, Cash, Kamara, Buendía, Jackson, Abraham
- **Nottingham Forest**: Sels, Williams, Milenković, Jair, Aina, McAtee, Schlager, Ndoye, Jesus, Wood
Prediction:
**1-1 draw** — Both teams too battered and cautious to push for a win. Villa edge the possession but Forest's shape holds firm. ⚽
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
Report a data issue
Spotted something wrong on this match? Tell us what and we'll fix it.