Leeds United vs Newcastle United — live & stats

Where the money is

3674522 EUR matched · captured 1 week, 1 day ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 2071046 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

75.0%

-24.0 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

13.6%

+13.5 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

11.5%

+11.4 vs price

Half time 8852 EUR · live

Draw 1.72 · implied 58.1%

51.2%

-6.9 vs price

Home 3.85 · implied 26.0%

39.7%

+13.7 vs price

Away 6.0 · implied 16.7%

9.1%

-7.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 343422 EUR · live

Under 5.9 · implied 16.9%

51.4%

+34.5 vs price

Over 1.2 · implied 83.3%

48.6%

-34.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 34591 EUR · live

Under 1.02 · implied 98.0%

92.3%

-5.8 vs price

Over 36.0 · implied 2.8%

7.7%

+4.9 vs price

20 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

19' 🔁 S. Steur ◂ N. González

32' ⚽ L. Miley1–0

34' ⚽ J. Bogle · assist D. Calvert-Lewin2–0

44' D. Calvert-Lewin · Foul

Half-time · 3–0

45'⁺¹ ⚽ D. Calvert-Lewin · assist T. Muharemović3–0

54' J. Murphy · Foul

57' 🔁 J. Willock ◂ M. Fernández-Pardo

57' 🔁 B. Touré ◂ J. Murphy

58' 🔁 T. Livramento ◂ A. Dedić

59' ⚽ N. Okafor4–0

72' 🔁 M. Bard ◂ G. Gudmundsson

72' 🔁 B. Aaronson ◂ A. Tanaka

72' 🔁 H. Wilson ◂ N. Okafor

78' 🔁 L. Nmecha ◂ D. Calvert-Lewin

80' 🔁 A. Bamba ◂ L. Miley

83' 🔁 D. James ◂ J. Bogle

88' 🔁 S. Longstaff ◂ A. Stach

Full-time · 4–1

90' ⚽ B. Touré · assist T. Livramento4–1

90'⁺¹ T. Livramento · Foul

Coaches

Daniel Farke

Matthias Jaissle

Recent form

Leeds United

LAChelsea3-6

DABrighton & Hove Albion1-1

DHBrentford1-1

WANottingham Forest2-0

WANottingham Forest1-0

Newcastle United

WAMillwall1-0

DHBournemouth2-2

WATottenham Hotspur2-0

WHWest Bromwich Albion3-2

DHLiverpool FC2-2

About this match

**Leeds hosting Newcastle in a Monday night shootout — both teams wound tight after mixed starts, and Elland Road's always a cauldron.** 🔥

Leeds are streaky (two wins sandwiched around draws), but that 6-3 hammering at Chelsea shows they can leak goals when it matters. Newcastle, meanwhile, haven't lost yet and picked apart Spurs just last time out — they're the league's momentum play right now.

Key storylines:

- **Newcastle's defensive grit vs Leeds' attacking chaos** — Botman and Thiaw have held firm; Calvert-Lewin and Wilson need service or this gets messy.
- **Midfield battle between Ampadu/Tanaka and Willock/Ramsey** — whoever controls tempo controls the tone on a tight pitch.
- **Missing bodies bite both ways** — Leeds without Gruev and Rodon, Newcastle without Burn and Joelinton. Depth gets tested here.

Expected lineups:

- **Leeds United**: Trafford, Gudmundsson, Muharemović, Bijol, Justin, Tanaka, Ampadu, Stach, Okafor, Calvert-Lewin, Wilson
- **Newcastle United**: Horníček, Hall, Botman, Thiaw, Dedić, Willock, Ramsey, Barnes, Murphy, Elanga, Wissa

Prediction:

**1-1 draw.** Both sides have enough craft to nick one but not quite the ruthlessness to close it out — classic Monday stalemate energy. ⚽

Where to watch

beIN SPORTS 2

Match facts

Stadium

Elland Road

City

Leeds

Referee

Michael Salisbury

4.00 yellows/match · 24 matches

Kickoff

14 Sep, 19:00 UTC

Competition

Premier League

Highlights & clips

Leeds United 3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1 Newcastle United

1 J. Trafford 7.0 24 J. Justin 7.3 30 N. Elvedi 6.4 5 T. Muharemović 7.1 7 D. James 6.9 ↑ 83' 8 S. Longstaff ↑ 88' 4 E. Ampadu 7.1 26 M. Bard 6.3 ↑ 72' 10 H. Wilson 6.8 ↑ 72' 14 L. Nmecha 6.6 ↑ 78' 11 B. Aaronson 6.5 ↑ 72' 21 L. Horníček 6.6 2 T. Livramento 6.6 ↑ 58' 12 M. Thiaw 5.9 4 S. Botman 6.0 3 L. Hall 6.4 8 A. Bamba 6.5 ↑ 80' 14 S. Steur 6.5 ↑ 19' 17 B. Touré 7.7 ↑ 57' 28 J. Willock 6.7 ↑ 57' 11 H. Barnes 6.9 9 Y. Wissa 5.9

Substitutes

16GM. Zetterer 3DG. Gudmundsson↓ 72'7.2 15DJ. Bijol 22MA. Tanaka↓ 72'7.2 2MJ. Bogle↓ 83'7.0 18MA. Stach↓ 88'6.8 9FD. Calvert-Lewin↓ 78'8.3 19FN. Okafor↓ 72'7.9 23FJ. Bahoya

Coach: Daniel Farke

Substitutes

1GN. Pope 37DA. Dedić↓ 58'5.6 5DF. Schär 6MN. González↓ 19'6.5 67ML. Miley↓ 80'5.8 41MJ. Ramsey 76MM. Miley 20FM. Fernández-Pardo↓ 57'6.5 23FJ. Murphy↓ 57'6.2

Coach: Matthias Jaissle

Top stats

51%Possession49%

1.91Expected goals (xG)0.85

15Total shots7

6Shots on target5

3Big chances1

5Corners5

Shots

4Shots off target2

5Blocked shots0

10Shots inside box4

5Shots outside box3

0Hit woodwork1

1Big chances scored0

2Big chances missed1

0.12Goals prevented-1.32

Attack

30Touches in box18

48Final third entries49

2Offsides3

13Free kicks8

2Fouled in final third1

Passing

429Passes418

356Accurate passes343

19/45 (42%)Long balls16/50 (32%)

6/16 (38%)Crosses1/18 (6%)

21Throw-ins21

Duels

52Duels48

38/72 (53%)Ground duels34/72 (47%)

16/32 (50%)Aerial duels16/32 (50%)

7/21 (33%)Dribbles7/15 (47%)

5Dispossessed10

Defending

18Tackles19

61Tackles won74

9Interceptions5

28Clearances36

49Recoveries44

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow cards2

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

1Big saves0

3Goal kicks8

2Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Leeds 41%

27%

Newcastle 32%

CornersOver 9.5 corners 53% · 1.62 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 64% · 1.37 @ Unibet

BTTSBoth teams to score 58% · 2.88 @ William Hill

Who winsLeeds to win (DNB) 63% · 1.73 @ Betsson

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 53% · 4.20 @ 888Sport

1X2Draw 27% · 2.62 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 76% · 2.00 @ 888Sport

1X2Newcastle to win 32% · 3.10 @ 888Sport

1X2Leeds to win 41% · 2.70 @ 10bet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 66% · 1.47 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 59% · 1.84 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.36

Leeds United

3.50

Draw

3.00

Newcastle United

Double Chanceconsensus

1.38

Leeds United or Draw

1.30

Leeds United or Newcastle United

1.57

Draw or Newcastle United

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.57

Yes

2.30

No

Home Clean Sheetconsensus

3.50

YES

1.25

NO

Away Clean Sheetconsensus

3.75

YES

1.22

NO

Home Win to Nilconsensus

4.35

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

5.53

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

12.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.24

Over 1.50

4.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.76

Over 2.50

2.08

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.81

Over 3.50

1.43

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.50

Over 4.50

1.14

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.69

Leeds United

2.10

Newcastle United

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.17

Over 7.50

3.85

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.33

Over 8.50

2.80

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.61

Over 9.50

2.20

Under 9.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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