Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford.

90+6'

I. Mbaye

Attempt saved. I. Mbaye (Aston Villa), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

90+6'

Aston Villa

Corner, Aston Villa.

90+5'

E. H. M. Diouf

Attempt blocked. E. H. M. Diouf (Brentford), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

90+5'

C. Wilson

Yellow card for C. Wilson (Brentford) for argument.

90'

6 minutes of added time.

90'

K. Andrews

Yellow card for K. Andrews (Brentford) for argument.

87'

B. Kamara

Attempt missed. B. Kamara (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

86'

D. Ouattara

Attempt missed. D. Ouattara (Brentford), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.

86'

J. Gomes

Substitution, Aston Villa: R. Barkley comes on for J. Gomes.

86'

J. Manzambi

Substitution, Aston Villa: Alysson comes on for J. Manzambi.

85'

J. Anthony

Substitution, Brentford: C. Wilson comes on for J. Anthony.

84'

K. Ajer

Yellow card for K. Ajer (Brentford) for argument.

84'

J. McGinn

Attempt saved. J. McGinn (Aston Villa), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

83'

J. Manzambi

Attempt blocked. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

82'

M. Kayode

Yellow card for M. Kayode (Brentford) for foul.

79'

K. Ajer

Goal! Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford. K. Ajer (Brentford) scores, assisted by J. Anthony.

79'

K. Ajer

Attempt blocked. K. Ajer (Brentford), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.07.

77'

J. McGinn

Goal! Aston Villa 2-1 Brentford. J. McGinn (Aston Villa) scores, assisted by J. Manzambi.

75'

V. Janelt

Yellow card for V. Janelt (Brentford) for foul.

73'

J. Anthony

Attempt missed. J. Anthony (Brentford), header. xG 0.16.

72'

M. Cash

Yellow card for M. Cash (Aston Villa) for foul.

70'

J. Manzambi

Attempt blocked. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.

67'

K. Lewis-Potter

Substitution, Brentford: D. Ouattara comes on for K. Lewis-Potter.

67'

Y. Yarmoliuk

Substitution, Brentford: M. Jensen comes on for Y. Yarmoliuk.

64'

E. Buendía

Substitution, Aston Villa: I. Mbaye comes on for E. Buendía.

63'

Brentford

Corner, Brentford.

62'

E. Buendía

Attempt blocked. E. Buendía (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

62'

Aston Villa

Corner, Aston Villa.

60'

J. Manzambi

Attempt blocked. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

60'

J. Manzambi

Attempt missed. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

58'

E. Buendía

Attempt missed. E. Buendía (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

57'

E. H. M. Diouf

Attempt missed. E. H. M. Diouf (Brentford), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.

54'

I. Thiago

Attempt missed. I. Thiago (Brentford), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

52'

K. Schade

Substitution, Brentford: M. Sangare comes on for K. Schade.

50'

K. Lewis-Potter

Attempt blocked. K. Lewis-Potter (Brentford), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

49'

K. Schade

Attempt saved. K. Schade (Brentford), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.10.

46'

M. Ruggeri

Substitution, Aston Villa: A. Wan-Bissaka comes on for M. Ruggeri.

46'

J. Schuster

Substitution, Brentford: A. Hickey comes on for J. Schuster.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford.

45+5'

N. Jackson

Attempt saved. N. Jackson (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

45+5'

J. McGinn

Attempt saved. J. McGinn (Aston Villa), left-footed shot. xG 0.57.

45+3'

E. Buendía

Yellow card for E. Buendía (Aston Villa) for foul.

45+2'

N. Jackson

Attempt missed. N. Jackson (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

45+2'

K. Schade

Attempt missed. K. Schade (Brentford), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

45'

5 minutes of added time.

35'

I. Thiago

Yellow card for I. Thiago (Brentford) for foul.

32'

J. Anthony

Attempt saved. J. Anthony (Brentford), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

31'

J. Manzambi

Attempt blocked. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

31'

J. Manzambi

Attempt saved. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

31'

E. Buendía

Attempt missed. E. Buendía (Aston Villa), left-footed shot. xG 0.14.

29'

Brentford

Offside, Brentford.

23'

Aston Villa

Offside, Aston Villa.

22'

Brentford

Corner, Brentford.

17'

K. Schade

Attempt missed. K. Schade (Brentford), header from a throw-in. xG 0.08.

12'

E. Buendía

Attempt blocked. E. Buendía (Aston Villa), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

12'

N. Jackson

Goal! Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford. N. Jackson (Aston Villa) scores.

10'

Y. Yarmoliuk

Goal! Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford. Y. Yarmoliuk (Brentford) scores.

9'

N. Jackson

Attempt blocked. N. Jackson (Aston Villa), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

9'

J. Manzambi

Attempt missed. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

4'

K. Schade

Attempt missed. K. Schade (Brentford), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.18.

1'

Kick-off: Aston Villa vs Brentford.

Where the money is

1076593 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 6 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 724734 EUR · live

Away 100.0 · implied 1.0%

35.8%

+34.8 vs price

Home 95.0 · implied 1.1%

35.4%

+34.3 vs price

Draw 1.02 · implied 98.0%

28.8%

-69.2 vs price

Half time 2956 EUR · live

Draw 1.79 · implied 55.9%

55.5%

-0.3 vs price

Away 4.2 · implied 23.8%

29.2%

+5.4 vs price

Home 4.6 · implied 21.7%

15.2%

-6.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 87838 EUR · live

Over 1.98 · implied 50.5%

73.9%

+23.4 vs price

Under 2.0 · implied 50.0%

26.1%

-23.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 10049 EUR · live

Over 2.2 · implied 45.5%

63.3%

+17.9 vs price

Under 1.8 · implied 55.6%

36.7%

-18.9 vs price

16 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

10' ⚽ Y. Yarmoliuk0–1

12' ⚽ N. Jackson1–1

35' I. Thiago · Foul

Half-time · 1–1

45'⁺³ E. Buendía · Foul

46' 🔁 A. Hickey ◂ J. Schuster

46' 🔁 A. Wan-Bissaka ◂ M. Ruggeri

52' 🔁 M. Sangare ◂ K. Schade

64' 🔁 I. Mbaye ◂ E. Buendía

67' 🔁 M. Jensen ◂ Y. Yarmoliuk

67' 🔁 D. Ouattara ◂ K. Lewis-Potter

72' M. Cash · Foul

75' V. Janelt · Foul

77' ⚽ J. McGinn · assist J. Manzambi2–1

79' ⚽ K. Ajer · assist J. Anthony2–2

82' M. Kayode · Foul

84' K. Ajer · Argument

85' 🔁 C. Wilson ◂ J. Anthony

86' 🔁 Alysson ◂ J. Manzambi

86' 🔁 R. Barkley ◂ J. Gomes

Full-time · 2–2

90' K. Andrews · Argument

90'⁺⁵ C. Wilson · Argument

Coaches

Unai Emery

Keith Andrews

Recent form

Aston Villa

WASevilla3-1

WATottenham Hotspur3-2

WACoventry City3-1

LHNottingham Forest1-2

WAClub Brugge KV3-2

Brentford

WHChelsea3-0

WAReading2-1

DABournemouth2-2

DHSunderland1-1

DALeeds United1-1

About this match

**Aston Villa welcome Brentford in a clash between red-hot attackers and a team treading water.** Villa are rolling with four wins in five, while Brentford sit in neutral territory—two wins, three draws. 🔥

Villa's form is genuinely spicy right now, stringing together victories with attacking flair. Brentford, meanwhile, look flat—creative enough to nick a draw against Bournemouth but lacking the killer instinct. Both squads are pretty banged up on the injury front, though.

Key storylines:

- **Aston Villa's attacking momentum** has them looking lethal on the road; Brentford's back line (missing key defenders) could struggle to contain the pace
- **Set-piece vulnerabilities** loom large—both sides have rotation issues in defense that leave them exposed
- **Midfield battle between Kamara and Janelt** will shape possession; Villa's energy advantage could dominate

Expected lineups:

- **Aston Villa**: Bizot, Wan-Bissaka, Lindelöf, Mings, Buendía, Kamara, Hemmings, Barkley, Jackson
- **Brentford**: Balcombe, Lewis-Potter, Ajer, Schuster, Kayode, Janelt, Yarmoliuk, Damsgaard, Ouattara

Prediction:

**Aston Villa 2–1 Brentford**

Villa's form and Brentford's sluggish draw-heavy run give the home side a slight edge here. 🎯

Where to watch

TODbeIN SPORTS 2

Match facts

Stadium

Villa Park

City

Birmingham

Referee

Craig Pawson

3.46 yellows/match · 39 matches

Kickoff

10 Oct, 14:00 UTC

Competition

Premier League

Highlights & clips

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Brentford

1 Z. Suzuki 5.8 2 M. Cash 6.6 3 V. Lindelöf 6.9 5 T. Mings 6.0 29 A. Wan-Bissaka 6.6 ↑ 46' 8 B. Kamara 7.3 6 R. Barkley 6.7 ↑ 86' 7 J. McGinn 8.2 19 I. Mbaye 6.9 ↑ 64' 47 Alysson 6.4 ↑ 86' 11 N. Jackson 8.2 1 C. Kelleher 7.4 33 M. Kayode 6.7 2 A. Hickey 6.5 ↑ 46' 20 K. Ajer 7.9 25 E. H. M. Diouf 5.9 8 M. Jensen 6.8 ↑ 67' 27 V. Janelt 7.0 13 C. Wilson 6.4 ↑ 85' 11 D. Ouattara 6.8 ↑ 67' 18 M. Sangare 6.8 ↑ 52' 9 I. Thiago 6.8

Substitutes

40GM. Bizot 13DM. Ruggeri↓ 46'6.4 14DP. Torres 44MJ. Manzambi↓ 86'7.1 35MJ. Gomes↓ 86'7.0 10ME. Buendía↓ 64'6.3 26ML. Bogarde 17FA. Garnacho 18FT. Abraham

Coach: Unai Emery

Substitutes

12GH. R. Valdimarsson 23DK. Lewis-Potter↓ 67'6.6 44DJ. Schuster↓ 46'6.4 4DS. van den Berg 48DB. Fredrick 6MY. Yarmoliuk↓ 67'7.5 19MJ. Anthony↓ 85'6.6 7MK. Schade↓ 52'6.5 14FF. Carvalho

Coach: Keith Andrews

Top stats

52%Possession48%

2.28Expected goals (xG)1.06

20Total shots14

7Shots on target4

3Big chances3

2Corners2

Shots

6Shots off target7

7Blocked shots3

15Shots inside box12

5Shots outside box2

1Big chances scored1

2Big chances missed2

-1.41Goals prevented0.47

Attack

37Touches in box32

57Final third entries57

1Offsides1

24Free kicks7

2Fouled in final third1

Passing

402Passes361

321Accurate passes286

24/60 (40%)Long balls18/44 (41%)

1/8 (13%)Crosses5/21 (24%)

14Throw-ins22

Duels

54Duels46

42/76 (55%)Ground duels34/76 (45%)

18/35 (51%)Aerial duels17/35 (49%)

4/11 (36%)Dribbles6/16 (38%)

14Dispossessed6

Defending

16Tackles21

38Tackles won48

4Interceptions8

42Clearances28

42Recoveries59

Discipline

7Fouls24

2Yellow cards5

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

1Big saves1

12Goal kicks7

1Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Aston Villa 36%

27%

Brentford 37%

BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.90 @ William Hill

1X2Brentford to win 37% · 2.75 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 3.80 @ William Hill

CornersOver 8.5 corners 61% · 1.44 @ betfair

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.91 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 27% · 2.64 @ 1xBet

Who winsAston Villa to win (DNB) 56% · 2.05 @ Betsson

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.65 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51% · 2.04 @ Pinnacle

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 66% · 1.50 @ Bet365

1X2Aston Villa to win 36% · 2.93 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.70

Aston Villa

3.50

Draw

2.52

Brentford

Double Chanceconsensus

1.50

Aston Villa or Draw

1.27

Aston Villa or Brentford

1.44

Draw or Brentford

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.53

Yes

2.37

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

5.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.80

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

13.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.35

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.71

Over 2.50

2.18

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.62

Over 3.50

1.44

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.05

Over 4.50

1.13

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.94

Aston Villa

1.78

Brentford

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.21

Over 7.50

3.58

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.41

Over 8.50

2.59

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.75

Over 9.50

2.02

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.22

Over 10.50

1.63

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.81

Over 11.50

1.35

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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