Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United.

90+4'

M. Cunha

Attempt blocked. M. Cunha (Manchester United), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

90+2'

A. Santos

Yellow card for A. Santos (Manchester United) for argument.

90+2'

E. Ampadu

Yellow card for E. Ampadu (Leeds United) for foul.

90+1'

L. Nmecha

Attempt blocked. L. Nmecha (Leeds United), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.21.

90+1'

A. Stach

Cleared off the line! A. Stach (Leeds United), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.26.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

89'

Manchester United

Offside, Manchester United.

88'

B. Fernandes

Attempt blocked. B. Fernandes (Manchester United), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

88'

A. Diallo

Attempt missed. A. Diallo (Manchester United), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

88'

Manchester United

Corner, Manchester United.

86'

Manchester United

Offside, Manchester United.

85'

Manchester United

Offside, Manchester United.

84'

Y. Tielemans

Substitution, Manchester United: M. Cunha comes on for Y. Tielemans.

81'

A. Tanaka

Substitution, Leeds United: S. Longstaff comes on for A. Tanaka.

76'

A. Diallo

Attempt blocked. A. Diallo (Manchester United), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.

76'

M. Mount

Attempt missed. M. Mount (Manchester United), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.07.

76'

Manchester United

Corner, Manchester United.

74'

N. Okafor

Substitution, Leeds United: L. Nmecha comes on for N. Okafor.

74'

C. Baleba

Substitution, Manchester United: M. Mount comes on for C. Baleba.

72'

A. Stach

Attempt missed. A. Stach (Leeds United), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

71'

Y. Tielemans

Attempt blocked. Y. Tielemans (Manchester United), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

71'

B. Fernandes

Attempt saved. B. Fernandes (Manchester United), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

65'

B. Fernandes

Attempt missed. B. Fernandes (Manchester United), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

63'

N. Okafor

Attempt missed. N. Okafor (Leeds United), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

63'

Leeds United

Corner, Leeds United.

59'

C. Baleba

Attempt missed. C. Baleba (Manchester United), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

56'

A. Tanaka

Attempt missed. A. Tanaka (Leeds United), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

51'

D. Calvert-Lewin

Goal! Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United. D. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds United) scores, assisted by T. Muharemović.

51'

T. Muharemović

Attempt missed. T. Muharemović (Leeds United), header from a corner. xG 0.06.

51'

Leeds United

Corner, Leeds United.

50'

D. Calvert-Lewin

Attempt missed. D. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds United), shot. xG 0.02.

46'

L. Martínez

Substitution, Manchester United: N. Mazraoui comes on for L. Martínez.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Leeds United 0-1 Manchester United.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

42'

J. Bogle

Attempt saved. J. Bogle (Leeds United), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

39'

D. Calvert-Lewin

Attempt missed. D. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds United), header. xG 0.06.

37'

A. Tanaka

Attempt saved. A. Tanaka (Leeds United), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

35'

B. Mbeumo

Goal! Leeds United 0-1 Manchester United. B. Mbeumo (Manchester United) scores, assisted by Y. Tielemans.

35'

Leeds United

Offside, Leeds United.

33'

B. Mbeumo

Attempt saved. B. Mbeumo (Manchester United), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

28'

Manchester United

Corner, Manchester United.

27'

B. Mbeumo

Attempt missed. B. Mbeumo (Manchester United), header. xG 0.20.

26'

N. Elvedi

Attempt saved. N. Elvedi (Leeds United), header from a set piece. xG 0.12.

19'

G. Gudmundsson

Yellow card for G. Gudmundsson (Leeds United) for foul.

17'

B. Fernandes

Yellow card for B. Fernandes (Manchester United) for foul.

13'

Leeds United

Offside, Leeds United.

12'

L. Martínez

Attempt blocked. L. Martínez (Manchester United), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.

1'

Kick-off: Leeds United vs Manchester United.

Where the money is

3759286 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks, 6 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 2289060 EUR · live

Draw 1.07 · implied 93.5%

34.9%

-58.5 vs price

Away 42.0 · implied 2.4%

34.0%

+31.6 vs price

Home 29.0 · implied 3.4%

31.1%

+27.6 vs price

Half time 4964 EUR · live

Draw 1.68 · implied 59.5%

59.7%

+0.2 vs price

Away 4.8 · implied 20.8%

28.5%

+7.7 vs price

Home 4.7 · implied 21.3%

11.8%

-9.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 752809 EUR · live

Under 1.06 · implied 94.3%

66.8%

-27.6 vs price

Over 17.5 · implied 5.7%

33.2%

+27.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 11555 EUR · live

Under 1.02 · implied 98.0%

90.9%

-7.1 vs price

Over 48.0 · implied 2.1%

9.1%

+7.0 vs price

20 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

17' B. Fernandes · Foul

19' G. Gudmundsson · Foul

35' ⚽ B. Mbeumo · assist Y. Tielemans0–1

Half-time · 0–1

46' 🔁 N. Mazraoui ◂ L. Martínez

51' ⚽ D. Calvert-Lewin · assist T. Muharemović1–1

74' 🔁 M. Mount ◂ C. Baleba

74' 🔁 L. Nmecha ◂ N. Okafor

81' 🔁 S. Longstaff ◂ A. Tanaka

84' 🔁 M. Cunha ◂ Y. Tielemans

Full-time · 1–1

90'⁺² A. Santos · Argument

90'⁺² E. Ampadu · Foul

Coaches

Daniel Farke

Michael Carrick

Recent form

Leeds United

LAArsenal1-2

DHCrystal Palace0-0

WHNewcastle United4-1

LAChelsea3-6

DABrighton & Hove Albion1-1

Manchester United

LAAtlético Madrid0-2

DHTottenham Hotspur1-1

DAFulham1-1

LHBrighton & Hove Albion2-3

LHManchester City0-1

About this match

**Leeds are riding a hot streak at home, and United's form is wobbling badly.** A win for the Whites would pile serious pressure on Ten Hag's side. 🔴

Leeds grabbed a clutch 4-1 demolition of Newcastle last time out and look dangerous on their turf. Manchester United, meanwhile, are winless in five—the Atlético thrashing and back-to-back draws against Spurs and Fulham have left them scrambling for rhythm. United's injury list is a nightmare too.

Key storylines:

- **H. Wilson and D. Calvert-Lewin** spearheading an attacking Leeds unit that's clicking at Elland Road
- **M. Rashford and B. Mbeumo** tasked with breaking down a stubborn White defence despite United's ongoing casualty ward
- **B. Fernandes** needing to stamp authority in midfield to steady the ship for the visitors

Expected lineups:

- **Leeds United**: J. Trafford, G. Gudmundsson, N. Elvedi, T. Muharemović, J. Justin, A. Tanaka, E. Ampadu, A. Stach, N. Okafor, D. Calvert-Lewin, H. Wilson
- **Manchester United**: S. Lammens, L. Martínez, H. Maguire, K. Mainoo, N. Mazraoui, B. Fernandes, Y. Tielemans, B. Mbeumo, A. Santos, M. Cunha, M. Rashford

Prediction:

**Leeds 2–1 Manchester United** — the Whites have the momentum and home advantage; United's fragility is on full display. 🟡

Where to watch

TODbeIN 4KbeIN SPORTS 1

Match facts

Stadium

Elland Road

City

Leeds

Referee

Darren England

3.94 yellows/match · 54 matches

Kickoff

18 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Competition

Premier League

Highlights & clips

Leeds United 3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1 Manchester United

1 J. Trafford 6.5 24 J. Justin 6.9 30 N. Elvedi 7.3 5 T. Muharemović 7.2 2 J. Bogle 7.0 4 E. Ampadu 6.9 8 S. Longstaff 6.6 ↑ 81' 3 G. Gudmundsson 6.2 18 A. Stach 6.3 14 L. Nmecha 6.8 ↑ 74' 9 D. Calvert-Lewin 7.2 1 S. Lammens 6.9 15 L. Yoro 6.6 5 H. Maguire 7.5 3 N. Mazraoui 7.5 ↑ 46' 2 D. Dalot 7.3 17 A. Santos 6.5 7 M. Mount 7.0 ↑ 74' 16 A. Diallo 7.1 10 M. Cunha 6.5 ↑ 84' 8 B. Fernandes 6.0 19 B. Mbeumo 6.6

Substitutes

16GM. Zetterer 26DM. Bard 15DJ. Bijol 22MA. Tanaka↓ 81'6.6 44MI. Gruev 10MH. Wilson 19FN. Okafor↓ 74'6.5 11FB. Aaronson 23FJ. Bahoya

Coach: Daniel Farke

Substitutes

12GK. Darlow 6DL. Martínez↓ 46'6.6 4DM. de Ligt 18MY. Tielemans↓ 84'7.5 20MC. Baleba↓ 74'6.6 41MH. Amass 31MS. Lacey 9FM. Rashford 11FJ. Zirkzee

Coach: Michael Carrick

Top stats

61%Possession39%

1.44Expected goals (xG)0.91

12Total shots13

5Shots on target3

2Big chances2

2Corners3

Shots

6Shots off target4

1Blocked shots6

10Shots inside box6

2Shots outside box7

1Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed1

-0.05Goals prevented-0.05

Attack

21Touches in box13

73Final third entries59

2Offsides3

5Free kicks16

1Fouled in final third1

Passing

530Passes345

443Accurate passes256

30/64 (47%)Long balls22/63 (35%)

4/29 (14%)Crosses2/10 (20%)

21Throw-ins14

Duels

47Duels53

22/59 (37%)Ground duels37/59 (63%)

25/42 (60%)Aerial duels17/42 (40%)

6/17 (35%)Dribbles3/8 (38%)

9Dispossessed6

Defending

11Tackles20

64Tackles won50

2Interceptions14

19Clearances33

50Recoveries45

Discipline

16Fouls5

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0Big saves1

7Goal kicks10

0Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Leeds 40%

27%

Man Utd 33%

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 57% · 3.80 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 57% · 2.75 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.88 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 59% · 1.36 @ betfair

Who winsLeeds to win (DNB) 61% · 1.75 @ 888Sport

1X2Man Utd to win 33% · 3.05 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 27% · 2.68 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 64% · 1.72 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53% · 2.20 @ betfair

1X2Leeds to win 40% · 2.62 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 64% · 1.50 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.35

Leeds United

3.55

Draw

2.88

Manchester United

Double Chanceconsensus

1.41

Leeds United or Draw

1.29

Leeds United or Manchester United

1.54

Draw or Manchester United

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.65

Yes

2.12

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

4.60

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

5.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

13.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.19

Over 1.50

4.50

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.66

Over 2.50

2.21

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.62

Over 3.50

1.48

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.75

Over 4.50

1.15

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.72

Leeds United

2.01

Manchester United

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.17

Over 7.50

4.03

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.35

Over 8.50

2.80

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.61

Over 9.50

2.14

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.10

Over 10.50

1.70

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.62

Over 11.50

1.40

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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