Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa: Stats & xG – Oct 17, 2026

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Premier League ·Sat 17 Oct

Newcastle United

0–1

HT 0–1

Full time

Aston Villa

St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne · Ref: Jarred Gillett

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa.

90+5'

N. González

Attempt blocked. N. González (Newcastle United), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

90+5'

Newcastle United

Offside, Newcastle United.

90+4'

N. Jackson

Attempt blocked. N. Jackson (Aston Villa), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.08.

90+1'

N. González

Attempt blocked. N. González (Newcastle United), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

90'

6 minutes of added time.

90'

I. Mbaye

Attempt missed. I. Mbaye (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.15.

90'

Joelinton

Substitution, Newcastle United: D. Burn comes on for Joelinton.

88'

Newcastle United

Offside, Newcastle United.

86'

M. Thiaw

Yellow card for M. Thiaw (Newcastle United) for foul.

85'

I. Mbaye

Attempt blocked. I. Mbaye (Aston Villa), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.

85'

Y. Wissa

Attempt missed. Y. Wissa (Newcastle United), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.16.

84'

H. Barnes

Attempt blocked. H. Barnes (Newcastle United), left-footed shot. xG 0.16.

83'

I. Mbaye

Attempt missed. I. Mbaye (Aston Villa), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

80'

Y. Wissa

Attempt missed. Y. Wissa (Newcastle United), right-footed shot. xG 0.14.

78'

W. Osula

Yellow card for W. Osula (Newcastle United) for foul.

78'

L. Goretzka

Attempt blocked. L. Goretzka (Aston Villa), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.07.

77'

A. Wan-Bissaka

Substitution, Aston Villa: P. Torres comes on for A. Wan-Bissaka.

74'

R. Barkley

Attempt saved. R. Barkley (Aston Villa), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.08.

74'

Aston Villa

Corner, Aston Villa.

73'

N. Jackson

Attempt blocked. N. Jackson (Aston Villa), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.

72'

E. Buendía

Substitution, Aston Villa: L. Goretzka comes on for E. Buendía.

72'

J. Gomes

Substitution, Aston Villa: R. Barkley comes on for J. Gomes.

72'

J. Manzambi

Substitution, Aston Villa: I. Mbaye comes on for J. Manzambi.

69'

H. Barnes

Attempt blocked. H. Barnes (Newcastle United), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

69'

Y. Wissa

Attempt blocked. Y. Wissa (Newcastle United), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

68'

M. Cash

Attempt missed. M. Cash (Aston Villa), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

68'

Aston Villa

Corner, Aston Villa.

66'

W. Osula

Attempt missed. W. Osula (Newcastle United), header. xG 0.06.

65'

Y. Wissa

Attempt missed. Y. Wissa (Newcastle United), header. xG 0.04.

59'

Newcastle United

Offside, Newcastle United.

56'

M. Fernández-Pardo

Substitution, Newcastle United: B. Touré comes on for M. Fernández-Pardo.

56'

J. Willock

Substitution, Newcastle United: W. Osula comes on for J. Willock.

55'

Y. Wissa

Yellow card for Y. Wissa (Newcastle United) for foul.

54'

J. Manzambi

Attempt blocked. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

53'

N. González

Yellow card for N. González (Newcastle United) for foul.

52'

Newcastle United

Corner, Newcastle United.

49'

Newcastle United

Corner, Newcastle United.

49'

S. Botman

Attempt saved. S. Botman (Newcastle United), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.08.

46'

Alysson

Substitution, Aston Villa: J. McGinn comes on for Alysson.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

42'

Aston Villa

Corner, Aston Villa.

38'

E. Buendía

Attempt blocked. E. Buendía (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.19.

36'

J. Manzambi

Goal! Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa) scores, assisted by J. Gomes.

35'

Newcastle United

Offside, Newcastle United.

33'

S. Botman

Attempt blocked. S. Botman (Newcastle United), header from a set piece. xG 0.03.

33'

Y. Wissa

Attempt missed. Y. Wissa (Newcastle United), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.06.

29'

Aston Villa

Corner, Aston Villa.

29'

N. Jackson

Attempt blocked. N. Jackson (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

28'

Alysson

Yellow card for Alysson (Aston Villa) for simulation.

26'

Y. Wissa

Attempt blocked. Y. Wissa (Newcastle United), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

25'

J. Gomes

Yellow card for J. Gomes (Aston Villa) for foul.

23'

Y. Wissa

Attempt blocked. Y. Wissa (Newcastle United), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

22'

Newcastle United

Corner, Newcastle United.

18'

Joelinton

Yellow card for Joelinton (Newcastle United) for foul.

18'

S. Botman

Yellow card for S. Botman (Newcastle United) for foul.

17'

Newcastle United

Offside, Newcastle United.

16'

J. Manzambi

Attempt blocked. J. Manzambi (Aston Villa), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

16'

M. Cash

Attempt missed. M. Cash (Aston Villa), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

15'

J. Willock

Attempt missed. J. Willock (Newcastle United), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

N. Jackson

Attempt saved. N. Jackson (Aston Villa), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.14.

Newcastle United

Corner, Newcastle United.

H. Barnes

Attempt blocked. H. Barnes (Newcastle United), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

Kick-off: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa.

Where the money is

4123011 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 2782516 EUR · live

Away 1.04 · implied 96.2%

63.9%

-32.3 vs price

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

27.9%

+27.8 vs price

Draw 26.0 · implied 3.8%

8.2%

+4.4 vs price

Half time 2763 EUR

Home 2.88 · implied 34.7%

43.1%

+8.3 vs price

Draw 2.7 · implied 37.0%

36.7%

-0.3 vs price

Away 3.75 · implied 26.7%

20.2%

-6.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 355172 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

52.1%

-46.9 vs price

Over 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

47.9%

+47.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 1882 EUR

Under 1.23 · implied 81.3%

65.1%

-16.3 vs price

Over 5.4 · implied 18.5%

34.9%

+16.4 vs price

20 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

18' S. Botman · Foul

18' Joelinton · Foul

25' J. Gomes · Foul

28' Alysson · Simulation

36' ⚽ J. Manzambi · assist J. Gomes0–1

Half-time · 0–1

46' 🔁 J. McGinn ◂ Alysson

53' N. González · Foul

55' Y. Wissa · Foul

56' 🔁 W. Osula ◂ J. Willock

56' 🔁 B. Touré ◂ M. Fernández-Pardo

72' 🔁 I. Mbaye ◂ J. Manzambi

72' 🔁 R. Barkley ◂ J. Gomes

72' 🔁 L. Goretzka ◂ E. Buendía

77' 🔁 P. Torres ◂ A. Wan-Bissaka

78' W. Osula · Foul

86' M. Thiaw · Foul

Full-time · 0–1

90' 🔁 D. Burn ◂ Joelinton

Coaches

Matthias Jaissle

Unai Emery

Recent form

Newcastle United

LACoventry City1-4

WHHull City2-1

LALeeds United1-4

WAMillwall1-0

DHBournemouth2-2

Aston Villa

WHFenerbahçe6-0

DHBrentford2-2

WASevilla3-1

WATottenham Hotspur3-2

WACoventry City3-1

About this match

**Newcastle hosting Villa in what could be a tale of two very different momentum curves** — Toon's stuttering at home while Aston Villa are absolutely rolling. 🔥

Newcastle have wobbled hard lately (two heavy away losses), but St James' Park is usually a fortress. Villa, though? They're on a tear: four wins in five including a 6-0 demolition of Fenerbahçe. This is peak confidence vs desperate need for a spark at home.

Key storylines:

- **Aston Villa's attacking form** has been genuinely scary good — they're scoring for fun and will punish Newcastle's patchy defense
- **Newcastle's home record matters** — historically they own this fixture (29 wins vs Villa's 14), so pride and crowd energy could flip the script
- **Injury pile-up on both sides** — Newcastle especially thin with Elanga, Livramento, and others out; Villa missing Onana is huge but they're still clicking

Expected lineups:

- **Newcastle United**: Horníček, Hall, Botman, Thiaw, Dedić, Willock, Miley, Barnes, Murphy, Wissa, Fernández-Pardo
- **Aston Villa**: Suzuki, Bogarde, Lindelöf, Mings, Wan-Bissaka, Kamara, Barkley, Buendía, Gomes, McGinn, Jackson

Prediction:

**Newcastle 1–2 Aston Villa** — Villa's form is too hot right now, and Newcastle's injuries and recent defensive fragility make them vulnerable. Slight edge to the visitors. ⚫️

Where to watch

TODbeIN 4KbeIN SPORTS 3beIN SPORTS ENGLISH 1

Match facts

Stadium

St James' Park

City

Newcastle upon Tyne

Referee

Jarred Gillett

4.08 yellows/match · 49 matches

Kickoff

17 Oct, 16:30 UTC

Competition

Premier League

Top stats

50%Possession50%

0.99Expected goals (xG)1.57

16Total shots15

1Shots on target3

0Big chances3

4Corners5

Shots

6Shots off target4

9Blocked shots8

11Shots inside box11

5Shots outside box4

0Hit woodwork1

0Big chances scored1

0Big chances missed2

0.05Goals prevented0.25

Attack

37Touches in box26

62Final third entries48

5Offsides0

11Free kicks14

5Fouled in final third2

Passing

407Passes431

337Accurate passes347

18/37 (49%)Long balls18/54 (33%)

5/29 (17%)Crosses2/10 (20%)

21Throw-ins10

Duels

50Duels50

31/80 (39%)Ground duels49/80 (61%)

26/33 (79%)Aerial duels7/33 (21%)

8/21 (38%)Dribbles11/19 (58%)

11Dispossessed5

Defending

13Tackles24

69Tackles won58

12Interceptions11

16Clearances37

48Recoveries51

Discipline

14Fouls11

6Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

1Big saves1

7Goal kicks11

0Punches2

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Newcastle 42%

26%

Aston Villa 32%

BTTSBoth teams to score 63% · 2.62 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 59% · 3.40 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 81% · 1.80 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 9.5 corners 50% · 1.75 @ betfair

CornersOver 8.5 corners 62% · 1.44 @ betfair

1X2Draw 26% · 2.76 @ 1xBet

1X2Aston Villa to win 32% · 3.10 @ William Hill

1X2Newcastle to win 42% · 2.51 @ 1xBet

Who winsNewcastle to win (DNB) 55% · 1.73 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 61% · 1.70 @ Pinnacle

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 63% · 1.62 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.30

Newcastle United

3.70

Draw

2.80

Aston Villa

Double Chanceconsensus

1.36

Newcastle United or Draw

1.27

Newcastle United or Aston Villa

1.64

Draw or Aston Villa

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.45

Yes

2.62

Home Win to Nilconsensus

4.80

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

6.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.03

Over 0.50

15.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.15

Over 1.50

5.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.57

Over 2.50

2.37

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.38

Over 3.50

1.54

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.42

Over 4.50

1.19

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.70

Newcastle United

2.05

Aston Villa

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.19

Over 7.50

3.66

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.40

Over 8.50

2.65

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.74

Over 9.50

2.10

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.17

Over 10.50

1.69

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.75

Over 11.50

1.37

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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