Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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**Bologna are hurting but still favor themselves at home** — they've got the head-to-head edge, though form is rough across both camps right now. 🔴
Bologna are winless in their last five (1W, 4L) but play the Dall'Ara fortress. Sassuolo just beat Torino 2-1 and drew Frosinone, so they've got momentum on their side despite a mountain of injuries.
Key storylines:
- **Bologna's depth crisis**: missing Casale, El Azzouzi, and Orsolini leaves the lineup thin, but **Bernardeschi** and **Piccoli** still carry real creative punch up front
- **Sassuolo's attack under siege**: with Pinamonti out and Koné sidelined, they're leaning hard on **Laurienté** and youngster **Volpato** to generate chances
- **Home fortunes**: Bologna have dominated the head-to-head (9-6-7), and the Dall'Ara should matter here
Expected lineups:
- **Bologna**: Skorupski, Miranda, Helland, Heggem, Zortea, Amondarain, Ferguson, Pobega, Cambiaghi, Piccoli, Bernardeschi
- **Sassuolo**: Murić, Doig, Odenthal, Macchioni, Cinquegrano, Ghion, Bakola, Adžić, Laurienté, Bowie, Volpato
Prediction:
**Bologna 2–1 Sassuolo**. Home side edges it on pedigree and the pitch advantage, despite injuries. Sassuolo's too thin up top to punish Bologna's sloppiness. ⚽
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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