Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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Massimiliano Allegri
SSC Napoli
Bologna**Napoli's title credentials face a dodgy Bologna side limping in with just one draw in five.** 🔵 Home advantage and recent H2H dominance should tell here, but Napoli's own wobble — losing to Como and Inter back-to-back — means nothing's a gimme.
Napoli have the pedigree and the firepower on paper; Bologna are genuinely struggling and missing key attacking options. The hosts' injury list is uglier (five absences including goalkeeper Meret), but **De Bruyne** and **Lobotka** in midfield still feels like overkill against this opponent.
Key storylines:
- **Napoli's midfield dominance** via De Bruyne and Lobotka should suffocate Bologna's attempts to build play
- **Politano and Højlund** need to convert the space they'll get; Napoli can't afford another home stumble
- **Bologna's attacking drought** — Orsolini, Cambiaghi, and Piccolini are all threading the needle without their main threats fit
Expected lineups:
- **SSC Napoli**: Milinković-Savić, Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Marín, Olivera, De Bruyne, Lobotka, Gilmour, Politano, Højlund, Lang
- **Bologna**: Skorupski, Holm, Helland, Heggem, Miranda, Amondarain, Ferguson, Pobega, Bernardeschi, Piccoli, Cambiaghi
Prediction:
**Napoli 2–0 Bologna.** Napoli's slight favorite at home against an out-of-form side. 🎯
SSC Napoli
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Bologna
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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