Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Both teams are limping into this one at 2-3-0 over their last five** — neither has found their rhythm yet, and Florence's fortress is waiting to pounce. 🔴
Napoli's injury crisis is **real**, missing McTominay, Santos, Badiashile, Giovane, and Marianucci all at once. That's a lot of bodies on the sideline. Fiorentina's meanwhile been streaky but dangerous at home, and they'll fancy their chances against a depleted squad.
Key storylines:
- **Meret** has to be sharp; Fiorentina's attack can hurt teams on the break, and De Bruyne pulling strings in midfield for Napoli means tempo will be chaotic.
- **Di Lorenzo** returns for the visitors and that's a plus, but the backline looks thin with so many absences eating into depth.
- **Fagioli** running the show for Viola — if he controls the pace, this becomes a Fiorentina game to lose.
Expected lineups:
- **Fiorentina**: De Gea, Drăguşin, Ranieri, Valdepeñas, Viery, Ndour, Fagioli, Mastantuono, Pellegrino, Njie
- **SSC Napoli**: Meret, Olivera, Rrahmani, Marín, Di Lorenzo, De Bruyne, Lobotka, Gilmour, Lang, Højlund, Politano
Prediction:
**Fiorentina 2-1 Napoli** — home edge tips it, especially with Napoli's roster stretched thin. Expect an open game. ⚽
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
Report a data issue
Spotted something wrong on this match? Tell us what and we'll fix it.