Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Atalanta's a mess defensively, and Venezia's in freefall — but one of these teams is *way* more equipped to punish it.** 🔴
Atalanta have leaked three defeats in their last four, with injuries decimating the back line. Venezia are somehow worse: **1 win in 5** and shipped 6 goals in their last two games. This looks like a wounded animal facing a dying one, except one animal has **Scamacca** and **Samardžić**.
Key storylines:
- **Atalanta's defensive crisis** (Hien, Kossounou, Raspadori all out) forced them to rotate against better sides — now they face a toothless Venezia
- **Venezia's attacking famine** comes into sharp focus: **Adams** and **Yeboah** haven't found the net enough times to matter in this league
- **Bellanova and Rowe** on the flanks should exploit **Haps** and **Pérez**, who are carrying heavy minutes on tired legs
Expected lineups:
- **Atalanta**: Carnesecchi, Kolašinac, Scalvini, Kristensen, Bellanova, Gaetano, Éderson, Pašalić, Rowe, Scamacca, Samardžić
- **Venezia**: Stanković, Bella-Kotchap, Halhal, Moreno, Haps, Hainaut, Bašić, Pérez, Sohm, Adams, Yeboah
Prediction:
**Atalanta 2-0 Venezia.** Even wounded, they're the overwhelming favorite. Venezia's defensive discipline will slow them slightly, but **Scamacca** bags one before half.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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