Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 10, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina.

90+6'

M. Pellegrino

Attempt missed. M. Pellegrino (Fiorentina), header. xG 0.03.

90+5'

S. Sabelli

Yellow card for S. Sabelli (Genoa) for foul.

90+3'

Genoa

Offside, Genoa.

90+1'

Vitinha

Yellow card for Vitinha (Genoa) for foul.

90+1'

P. Gonçalves

Attempt blocked. P. Gonçalves (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

89'

Genoa

Corner, Genoa.

85'

S. Wiafe

Yellow card for S. Wiafe (Genoa) for time wasting.

84'

C. Ndour

Off the woodwork! C. Ndour (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

84'

J. Vásquez

Yellow card for J. Vásquez (Genoa) for argument.

82'

M. Ellertsson

Substitution, Genoa: S. Sabelli comes on for M. Ellertsson.

82'

Fiorentina

Offside, Fiorentina.

81'

W. Gnonto

Substitution, Fiorentina: P. Gonçalves comes on for W. Gnonto.

81'

K. Ehizibue

Substitution, Genoa: D. Puczka comes on for K. Ehizibue.

80'

A. Jiménez

Substitution, Fiorentina: Dodô comes on for A. Jiménez.

79'

A. Njie

Attempt saved. A. Njie (Fiorentina), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

78'

A. Marcandalli

Attempt missed. A. Marcandalli (Genoa), header from a corner. xG 0.02.

78'

Genoa

Corner, Genoa.

77'

C. Ndour

Attempt missed. C. Ndour (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

74'

H. J. Traorè

Yellow card for H. J. Traorè (Genoa) for argument.

73'

J. Vásquez

Goal! Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina. Own goal by J. Vásquez.

66'

S. Otoa

Substitution, Genoa: A. Marcandalli comes on for S. Otoa.

65'

Beto

Substitution, Fiorentina: M. Pellegrino comes on for Beto.

64'

Beto

Attempt missed. Beto (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.15.

60'

Viery

Yellow card for Viery (Fiorentina) for foul.

57'

J. Messias

Substitution, Genoa: Vitinha comes on for J. Messias.

57'

S. El Shaarawy

Substitution, Genoa: S. Wiafe comes on for S. El Shaarawy.

52'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

52'

N. Fagioli

Attempt blocked. N. Fagioli (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

50'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

46'

C. Oulaï

Substitution, Fiorentina: A. Njie comes on for C. Oulaï.

46'

L. Ranieri

Substitution, Fiorentina: Viery comes on for L. Ranieri.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Genoa 2-0 Fiorentina.

45+1'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

45'

1 minute of added time.

45'

F. Mastantuono

Attempt saved. F. Mastantuono (Fiorentina), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.

44'

L. Ranieri

Attempt missed. L. Ranieri (Fiorentina), header from a corner. xG 0.08.

43'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

41'

C. Oulaï

Attempt missed. C. Oulaï (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

34'

Genoa

Corner, Genoa.

32'

F. Mastantuono

Attempt blocked. F. Mastantuono (Fiorentina), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

32'

M. Osmajić

Attempt missed. M. Osmajić (Genoa), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

27'

K. Ehizibue

Attempt blocked. K. Ehizibue (Genoa), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

27'

S. El Shaarawy

Attempt missed. S. El Shaarawy (Genoa), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

23'

H. J. Traorè

Attempt missed. H. J. Traorè (Genoa), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

22'

S. El Shaarawy

Attempt saved. S. El Shaarawy (Genoa), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.06.

21'

C. Oulaï

Yellow card for C. Oulaï (Fiorentina) for foul.

20'

Fiorentina

Offside, Fiorentina.

19'

F. Mastantuono

Attempt blocked. F. Mastantuono (Fiorentina), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

15'

J. Messias

Goal! Genoa 2-0 Fiorentina. J. Messias (Genoa) scores, assisted by M. Osmajić.

15'

L. Ranieri

Yellow card for L. Ranieri (Fiorentina) for foul.

10'

C. Ndour

Attempt saved. C. Ndour (Fiorentina), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

7'

M. Osmajić

Goal! Genoa 1-0 Fiorentina. M. Osmajić (Genoa) scores, assisted by M. Ellertsson.

7'

S. El Shaarawy

Attempt saved. S. El Shaarawy (Genoa), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

7'

M. Ellertsson

Attempt missed. M. Ellertsson (Genoa), left-footed shot. xG 0.29.

5'

Genoa

Offside, Genoa.

1'

Kick-off: Genoa vs Fiorentina.

Where the money is

977782 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 6 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 464831 EUR · live

Home 1.02 · implied 98.0%

74.2%

-23.9 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

13.6%

+13.5 vs price

Draw 23.0 · implied 4.3%

12.4%

+8.0 vs price

Half time 6565 EUR · live

Home 1.04 · implied 96.2%

65.5%

-30.7 vs price

Draw 4.1 · implied 24.4%

27.1%

+2.7 vs price

Away 160.0 · implied 0.6%

7.5%

+6.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 96764 EUR · live

Under 2.32 · implied 43.1%

50.0%

+6.9 vs price

Over 1.77 · implied 56.5%

50.0%

-6.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 9886 EUR · live

Over 2.14 · implied 46.7%

51.6%

+4.8 vs price

Under 1.88 · implied 53.2%

48.4%

-4.8 vs price

16 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

7' ⚽ M. Osmajić · assist M. Ellertsson1–0

15' ⚽ J. Messias · assist M. Osmajić2–0

15' L. Ranieri · Foul

21' C. Oulaï · Foul

Half-time · 2–0

46' 🔁 Viery ◂ L. Ranieri

46' 🔁 A. Njie ◂ C. Oulaï

57' 🔁 S. Wiafe ◂ S. El Shaarawy

57' 🔁 Vitinha ◂ J. Messias

60' Viery · Foul

65' 🔁 M. Pellegrino ◂ Beto

66' 🔁 A. Marcandalli ◂ S. Otoa

73' ⚽ J. Vásquez2–1

74' H. J. Traorè · Argument

80' 🔁 Dodô ◂ A. Jiménez

81' 🔁 D. Puczka ◂ K. Ehizibue

81' 🔁 P. Gonçalves ◂ W. Gnonto

82' 🔁 S. Sabelli ◂ M. Ellertsson

84' J. Vásquez · Argument

85' S. Wiafe · Time wasting

Full-time · 2–1

90'⁺¹ Vitinha · Foul

90'⁺⁵ S. Sabelli · Foul

Coaches

Daniele De Rossi

Paolo Vanoli

Recent form

Genoa

LAFC Rapid București0-2

LAParma1-2

WHSüdtirol1-0

DHFrosinone1-1

LHComo1-4

Fiorentina

DHSSC Napoli1-1

WHPisa3-0

WAVenezia4-2

LHTorino1-2

LHFrosinone0-3

About this match

**Genoa's backline is creaking, and Fiorentina smells blood.** The Rossoblu are limping into this one with ankle issues piling up, while la Viola are rolling off a ruthless 3-0 demolition of Pisa. 🔥

Genoa's form is rough — just one win in five and two straight defeats before beating Südtirol. Fiorentina, meanwhile, have found their groove with back-to-back wins and a dominant home performance. This feels like a mismatch on paper.

Key storylines:

- **Genoa's injury crisis at the back** with Havel and Colombo both sidelined puts serious strain on a thin defensive spine
- **Fiorentina's attacking efficiency** has clicked; they've torn apart everyone at home and should fancy their chances against a weakened outfit
- **J. Messias** will need to carry the creative load for Genoa, but Fiorentina's midfield press could stifle the Rossoblu's build-up play

Expected lineups:

- **Genoa**: J. Bijlow, D. Puczka, A. Marcandalli, L. Østigård, C. Drameh, M. Ellertsson, M. Frendrup, Amorim, T. Baldanzi, Vitinha, J. Messias
- **Fiorentina**: D. De Gea, V. Valdepeñas, R. Drăguşin, L. Ranieri, A. Jiménez, M. Brescianini, C. Ndour, A. Atta, A. Njie, M. Pellegrino, W. Gnonto

Prediction:

**Fiorentina 2-0 Genoa.** Viola edge this one comfortably; Genoa's setup is too fragile right now.

Where to watch

Disney+ Premium Argentina

Match facts

Stadium

Luigi Ferraris

City

Genoa

Referee

Fabio Maresca

3.33 yellows/match · 27 matches

Kickoff

10 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Competition

Serie A

Highlights & clips

Genoa 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Fiorentina

1 J. Bijlow 7.8 31 D. Puczka 6.6 ↑ 81' 27 A. Marcandalli 6.7 ↑ 66' 5 L. Østigård 7.0 22 J. Vásquez 5.9 25 H. J. Traorè 7.0 32 M. Frendrup 7.4 20 S. Sabelli 6.6 ↑ 82' 71 S. Wiafe 6.2 ↑ 57' 9 Vitinha 6.5 ↑ 57' 18 M. Osmajić 7.7 43 D. De Gea 7.3 2 Dodô 6.9 ↑ 80' 3 R. Drăguşin 6.3 33 Viery 6.8 ↑ 46' 21 V. Valdepeñas 6.3 27 C. Ndour 7.2 44 N. Fagioli 6.9 30 F. Mastantuono 7.6 25 A. Njie 6.9 ↑ 46' 28 P. Gonçalves 6.6 ↑ 81' 32 M. Pellegrino 6.9 ↑ 65'

Top stats

37%Possession63%

1.46Expected goals (xG)0.82

10Total shots13

4Shots on target3

3Big chances0

3Corners4

Shots

5Shots off target6

1Blocked shots4

7Shots inside box10

3Shots outside box3

0Hit woodwork1

2Big chances scored0

1Big chances missed0

-0.38Goals prevented-0.09

Attack

21Touches in box44

45Final third entries53

2Offsides2

10Free kicks11

2Fouled in final third3

Passing

276Passes473

209Accurate passes405

21/55 (38%)Long balls17/33 (52%)

3/10 (30%)Crosses4/20 (20%)

15Throw-ins25

Duels

47Duels53

35/74 (47%)Ground duels39/74 (53%)

11/23 (48%)Aerial duels12/23 (52%)

5/10 (50%)Dribbles10/19 (53%)

14Dispossessed13

Defending

22Tackles19

36Tackles won63

8Interceptions3

33Clearances21

44Recoveries39

Discipline

11Fouls10

5Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

0Big saves1

13Goal kicks7

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Genoa 30%

29%

Fiorentina 41%

Who winsFiorentina to win (DNB) 57% · 1.61 @ 888Sport

1X2Fiorentina to win 41% · 2.62 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 53% · 1.15 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 29% · 2.44 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 74% · 1.31 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 68% · 1.35 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.65 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBoth teams to score 53% · 3.40 @ Bet365

CornersOver 8.5 corners 56% · 1.81 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 2.20 @ William Hill

1X2Genoa to win 30% · 3.38 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

3.15

Genoa

3.30

Draw

2.30

Fiorentina

Double Chanceconsensus

1.60

Genoa or Draw

1.31

Genoa or Fiorentina

1.34

Draw or Fiorentina

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.79

Yes

1.95

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

5.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

3.80

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.05

Over 0.50

9.65

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.33

Over 1.50

3.32

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.04

Over 2.50

1.79

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.50

Over 3.50

1.29

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

7.50

Over 4.50

1.06

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.20

Genoa

1.60

Fiorentina

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.41

Over 7.50

2.61

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.75

Over 8.50

2.01

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.25

Over 9.50

1.61

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

3.01

Over 10.50

1.32

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

4.12

Over 11.50

1.16

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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