Lecce 1-2 Bologna: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 11, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Lecce 1-2 Bologna.

90+6'

O. Gandelman

Attempt missed. O. Gandelman (Lecce), header from a set piece. xG 0.03.

90+4'

O. Gandelman

Attempt saved. O. Gandelman (Lecce), header from a set piece. xG 0.01.

90+4'

O. El Azzouzi

Yellow card for O. El Azzouzi (Bologna) for foul.

90+2'

J. Siebert

Attempt blocked. J. Siebert (Lecce), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

90+2'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

90+1'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

90+1'

T. Gabriel

Attempt missed. T. Gabriel (Lecce), header. xG 0.03.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

90'

Bologna

Offside, Bologna.

88'

Lecce

Offside, Lecce.

87'

W. Geubbels

Attempt missed. W. Geubbels (Lecce), header from a throw-in. xG 0.53.

86'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

86'

L. Coulibaly

Attempt saved. L. Coulibaly (Lecce), header. xG 0.04.

85'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

83'

Bologna

Offside, Bologna.

83'

R. Orsolini

Substitution, Bologna: ? comes on for R. Orsolini.

82'

W. Geubbels

Attempt missed. W. Geubbels (Lecce), header. xG 0.06.

82'

Bologna

Offside, Bologna.

81'

N. Cambiaghi

Substitution, Bologna: F. Bernardeschi comes on for N. Cambiaghi.

81'

J. Miranda

Substitution, Bologna: A. R. Alhassane comes on for J. Miranda.

80'

K. N’Dri

Attempt blocked. K. N’Dri (Lecce), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.

80'

J. Monteiro

Attempt saved. J. Monteiro (Lecce), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.08.

79'

A. Fatah

Substitution, Lecce: J. Monteiro comes on for A. Fatah.

79'

Y. Maleh

Substitution, Lecce: O. Gandelman comes on for Y. Maleh.

78'

O. El Azzouzi

Attempt saved. O. El Azzouzi (Bologna), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.

77'

K. N’Dri

Attempt blocked. K. N’Dri (Lecce), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

77'

K. N’Dri

Attempt blocked. K. N’Dri (Lecce), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

75'

J. Enem

Goal! Lecce 1-2 Bologna. J. Enem (Bologna) scores, assisted by N. Cambiaghi.

75'

O. Ngom

Attempt missed. O. Ngom (Lecce), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.06.

74'

W. Geubbels

Attempt blocked. W. Geubbels (Lecce), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.

70'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

70'

J. Miranda

Attempt missed. J. Miranda (Bologna), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

68'

O. Ngom

Attempt saved. O. Ngom (Lecce), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

68'

L. Coulibaly

Attempt missed. L. Coulibaly (Lecce), header from a corner. xG 0.06.

68'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

64'

A. Fatah

Goal! Lecce 1-1 Bologna. A. Fatah (Lecce) scores, assisted by D. Veiga.

63'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

62'

M. Darmian

Attempt missed. M. Darmian (Bologna), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

62'

T. Pobega

Attempt missed. T. Pobega (Bologna), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.67.

62'

P. Esteban

Substitution, Lecce: W. Geubbels comes on for P. Esteban.

62'

R. Piccoli

Substitution, Bologna: J. Enem comes on for R. Piccoli.

62'

S. Pierotti

Substitution, Lecce: K. N’Dri comes on for S. Pierotti.

62'

T. Pobega

Substitution, Bologna: O. El Azzouzi comes on for T. Pobega.

61'

Bologna

Corner, Bologna.

61'

Bologna

Corner, Bologna.

60'

N. Zortea

Attempt blocked. N. Zortea (Bologna), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

56'

P. Esteban

Attempt missed. P. Esteban (Lecce), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

55'

T. Heggem

Substitution, Bologna: E. Helland comes on for T. Heggem.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Lecce 0-1 Bologna.

45+2'

Y. Maleh

Yellow card for Y. Maleh (Lecce) for foul.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

44'

T. Heggem

Yellow card for T. Heggem (Bologna) for foul.

43'

L. Coulibaly

Attempt blocked. L. Coulibaly (Lecce), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

43'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

39'

Bologna

Corner, Bologna.

39'

J. Miranda

Attempt saved. J. Miranda (Bologna), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

36'

I. Ilić

Substitution, Lecce: O. Ngom comes on for I. Ilić.

35'

Bologna

Offside, Bologna.

31'

P. Esteban

Yellow card for P. Esteban (Lecce) for argument.

28'

Y. Maleh

Attempt missed. Y. Maleh (Lecce), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

27'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

26'

N. Zortea

Attempt saved. N. Zortea (Bologna), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

25'

Lecce

Corner, Lecce.

17'

R. Orsolini

Goal! Lecce 0-1 Bologna. R. Orsolini (Bologna) scores, assisted by N. Cambiaghi.

10'

I. Ilić

Yellow card for I. Ilić (Lecce) for foul.

1'

N. Cambiaghi

Attempt missed. N. Cambiaghi (Bologna), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

1'

Kick-off: Lecce vs Bologna.

Where the money is

655702 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 441136 EUR · live

Away 1.07 · implied 93.5%

72.1%

-21.4 vs price

Draw 12.5 · implied 8.0%

15.6%

+7.6 vs price

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

12.4%

+12.3 vs price

Half time 2782 EUR · live

Draw 6.2 · implied 16.1%

66.1%

+49.9 vs price

Home 50.0 · implied 2.0%

30.7%

+28.7 vs price

Away 1.25 · implied 80.0%

3.2%

-76.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 49882 EUR · live

Under 1.81 · implied 55.2%

52.2%

-3.0 vs price

Over 2.24 · implied 44.6%

47.8%

+3.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 938 EUR · live

Under 1.17 · implied 85.5%

86.3%

+0.8 vs price

Over 8.0 · implied 12.5%

13.7%

+1.2 vs price

16 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

10' I. Ilić · Foul

17' ⚽ R. Orsolini · assist N. Cambiaghi0–1

31' P. Esteban · Argument

36' 🔁 O. Ngom ◂ I. Ilić

44' T. Heggem · Foul

Half-time · 0–1

45'⁺² Y. Maleh · Foul

55' 🔁 E. Helland ◂ T. Heggem

62' 🔁 O. El Azzouzi ◂ T. Pobega

62' 🔁 K. N’Dri ◂ S. Pierotti

62' 🔁 J. Enem ◂ R. Piccoli

62' 🔁 W. Geubbels ◂ P. Esteban

64' ⚽ A. Fatah · assist D. Veiga1–1

75' ⚽ J. Enem · assist N. Cambiaghi1–2

79' 🔁 O. Gandelman ◂ Y. Maleh

79' 🔁 J. Monteiro ◂ A. Fatah

81' 🔁 A. R. Alhassane ◂ J. Miranda

81' 🔁 F. Bernardeschi ◂ N. Cambiaghi

83' 🔁 ◂ R. Orsolini

Full-time · 1–2

90'⁺⁴ O. El Azzouzi · Foul

Coaches

Eusebio Di Francesco

Raffaele Palladino

Recent form

Lecce

LAAC Milan0-3

WHMonza3-2

LACagliari0-1

LHAS Roma0-4

WAVenezia2-0

Bologna

DHTorino1-1

LASSC Napoli0-1

DHSassuolo2-2

LAAtalanta0-1

LHLazio0-1

About this match

**Lecce's hunting for back-to-back wins, but Bologna are wounded and winless — this could get spicy.** 🔥 The hosts smell blood after dumping Monza 3-2 at home, while the Rossoblu are limping through Serie A without a win in five games.

Lecce have that home advantage working big-time, and **Bologna are missing key players** — E. Holm and J. Odgaard both sidelined. Still, H2H tells the story: Bologna have dominated this fixture historically, winning 17 of the last 34 meetings. But form? Form says Lecce all day.

Key storylines:

- **Lecce's frontline** (N. Štulić, O. Ngom, S. Pierotti) looking to exploit a **Bologna defence without Holm and Odgaard**
- **Bologna's winless run** continues on the road, where they've conceded and drawn their last two
- **Via del Mare pressure**: Lecce thrive at home; Bologna are 0W in their last three away

Expected lineups:

- **Lecce**: W. Falcone, A. Gallo, K. Gaspar, J. Siebert, D. Veiga, L. Coulibaly, I. Ilić, A. Fatah, O. Ngom, S. Pierotti, N. Štulić
- **Bologna**: Ł. Skorupski, J. Miranda, T. Heggem, A. Theate, N. Zortea, M. Amondarain, L. Ferguson, T. Pobega, N. Cambiashi, R. Piccoli, F. Bernardeschi

Prediction:

**Lecce 2–1 Bologna.** Lecce's form and home fortress give them the edge here, even though Bologna have the historical leg up. 🎯

Where to watch

Disney+ Premium Argentina

Match facts

Stadium

Via del Mare

City

Lecce

Referee

Luca Pairetto

3.21 yellows/match · 33 matches

Kickoff

11 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Competition

Serie A

Highlights & clips

Lecce 4-3-3 · 3-4-2-1 Bologna

30 W. Falcone 6.7 17 D. Veiga 7.1 5 J. Siebert 6.3 44 T. Gabriel 6.8 25 A. Gallo 7.4 29 L. Coulibaly 6.5 79 O. Ngom 7.0 ↑ 36' 99 J. Monteiro 6.6 ↑ 79' 11 K. N’Dri 6.9 ↑ 62' 69 W. Geubbels 6.8 ↑ 62' 16 O. Gandelman 6.7 ↑ 79' 25 M. Pessina 6.4 36 M. Darmian 6.7 16 N. Casale 7.0 5 E. Helland 7.3 ↑ 55' 20 N. Zortea 7.1 19 L. Ferguson 6.7 17 O. El Azzouzi 6.8 ↑ 62' 23 A. R. Alhassane 6.9 ↑ 81' 7 R. Orsolini 8.1 10 F. Bernardeschi 6.6 ↑ 81' 22 J. Enem 7.1 ↑ 62'

Substitutes

1GM. Bleve 32GA. Borbei 3DC. Ndaba 2DA. Dembélé 18DG. Jean 4DK. Gaspar 50MS. Pierotti↓ 62'6.4 20MI. Ilić↓ 36'6.1 14MY. Maleh↓ 79'5.8 28MO. Gorter 8MS. Fofana 77MM. Kaba 7FA. Fatah↓ 79'8.6 22FP. Esteban↓ 62'5.8

Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco

Substitutes

1GŁ. Skorupski 72GU. Happonen 33DJ. Miranda↓ 81'7.5 14DT. Heggem↓ 55'6.9 41DM. Vitík 29DL. De Silvestri 4MT. Pobega↓ 62'6.7 6MN. Moro 8MM. Amondarain 18MM. Libra 28FN. Cambiaghi↓ 81'8.8 91FR. Piccoli↓ 62'6.8 9FA. Dovbyk

Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Top stats

57%Possession43%

1.49Expected goals (xG)2.0

19Total shots10

5Shots on target5

2Big chances3

10Corners3

Shots

8Shots off target4

6Blocked shots1

14Shots inside box8

5Shots outside box2

1Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed2

-0.36Goals prevented0.45

Attack

42Touches in box24

59Final third entries39

1Offsides4

8Free kicks17

3Fouled in final third2

Passing

409Passes314

342Accurate passes251

21/45 (47%)Long balls29/58 (50%)

14/31 (45%)Crosses10/16 (63%)

18Throw-ins27

Duels

46Duels54

29/73 (40%)Ground duels44/73 (60%)

23/40 (57%)Aerial duels17/40 (43%)

9/19 (47%)Dribbles5/12 (42%)

12Dispossessed5

Defending

11Tackles22

64Tackles won36

11Interceptions12

16Clearances43

61Recoveries46

Discipline

17Fouls8

3Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

2Big saves1

4Goal kicks12

0Punches3

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Lecce 22%

29%

Bologna 49%

Who winsBologna to win (DNB) 71% · 1.44 @ 888Sport

1X2Bologna to win 49% · 2.30 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 55% · 1.15 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 76% · 1.31 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 29% · 2.44 @ 1xBet

BTTSBTTS: No 50% · 1.27 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 59% · 1.85 @ betfair

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 65% · 1.35 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53% · 1.62 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 70% · 2.25 @ 1xBet

1X2Lecce to win 22% · 4.33 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

4.20

Lecce

3.30

Draw

1.94

Bologna

Double Chanceconsensus

1.91

Lecce or Draw

1.30

Lecce or Bologna

1.21

Draw or Bologna

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.87

Yes

1.85

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

7.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

3.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

9.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.33

Over 1.50

3.25

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.13

Over 2.50

1.73

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.56

Over 3.50

1.25

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

7.25

Over 4.50

1.06

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.69

Lecce

1.42

Bologna

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.41

Over 7.50

2.58

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.81

Over 8.50

1.93

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.27

Over 9.50

1.61

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

3.01

Over 10.50

1.32

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

4.12

Over 11.50

1.16

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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