Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 11, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan.

90+4'

K. Thorstvedt

Attempt saved. K. Thorstvedt (Sassuolo), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.09.

90+4'

K. Thorstvedt

Yellow card for K. Thorstvedt (Sassuolo) for foul.

90+2'

A. Laurienté

Attempt missed. A. Laurienté (Sassuolo), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

90+1'

S. Pavlović

Yellow card for S. Pavlović (AC Milan) for foul.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

87'

G. Ramos

Yellow card for G. Ramos (AC Milan) for time wasting.

85'

S. Chukwueze

Substitution, AC Milan: O. Hutchinson comes on for S. Chukwueze.

82'

AC Milan

Corner, AC Milan.

79'

I. Van der Brempt

Substitution, Sassuolo: S. Cinquegrano comes on for I. Van der Brempt.

79'

N. Matić

Substitution, Sassuolo: L. Lipani comes on for N. Matić.

78'

Y. Musah

Substitution, AC Milan: A. Jashari comes on for Y. Musah.

78'

C. Pulišić

Substitution, AC Milan: A. Cissè comes on for C. Pulišić.

71'

S. Chukwueze

Attempt saved. S. Chukwueze (AC Milan), left-footed shot. xG 0.17.

68'

C. Odenthal

Goal! Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan. C. Odenthal (Sassuolo) scores.

67'

Sassuolo

Corner, Sassuolo.

67'

K. Bowie

Attempt blocked. K. Bowie (Sassuolo), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

66'

K. Bowie

Attempt saved. K. Bowie (Sassuolo), left-footed shot. xG 0.18.

66'

K. Thorstvedt

Attempt saved. K. Thorstvedt (Sassuolo), left-footed shot. xG 0.55.

63'

A. Rabiot

Goal! Sassuolo 0-1 AC Milan. A. Rabiot (AC Milan) scores, assisted by L. Modrić.

61'

J. Doig

Attempt missed. J. Doig (Sassuolo), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

60'

S. Esposito

Substitution, Sassuolo: K. Bowie comes on for S. Esposito.

60'

V. Adžić

Substitution, Sassuolo: K. Thorstvedt comes on for V. Adžić.

59'

G. Ramos

Attempt missed. G. Ramos (AC Milan), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

49'

AC Milan

Corner, AC Milan.

48'

AC Milan

Corner, AC Milan.

46'

P. Estupiñán

Substitution, AC Milan: L. Modrić comes on for P. Estupiñán.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Sassuolo 0-0 AC Milan.

45+7'

C. Pulišić

Attempt blocked. C. Pulišić (AC Milan), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

45+6'

S. Pavlović

Attempt saved. S. Pavlović (AC Milan), header. xG 0.07.

45+6'

AC Milan

Corner, AC Milan.

45+4'

D. Moreira

Attempt saved. D. Moreira (AC Milan), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

45+3'

K. De Winter

Yellow card for K. De Winter (AC Milan) for foul.

45'

7 minutes of added time.

43'

AC Milan

Corner, AC Milan.

43'

G. Ramos

Attempt saved. G. Ramos (AC Milan), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

43'

G. Ramos

Attempt saved. G. Ramos (AC Milan), header from a throw-in. xG 0.38.

41'

P. Estupiñán

Yellow card for P. Estupiñán (AC Milan) for foul.

38'

Sassuolo

Offside, Sassuolo.

32'

A. Rabiot

Attempt missed. A. Rabiot (AC Milan), header from a set piece. xG 0.23.

26'

F. Leysen

Substitution, Sassuolo: C. Odenthal comes on for F. Leysen.

23'

A. Laurienté

Attempt missed. A. Laurienté (Sassuolo), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

21'

V. Adžić

Attempt missed. V. Adžić (Sassuolo), header. xG 0.04.

20'

M. Gabbia

Substitution, AC Milan: K. De Winter comes on for M. Gabbia.

17'

G. Ramos

Attempt blocked. G. Ramos (AC Milan), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

10'

D. Berardi

Attempt blocked. D. Berardi (Sassuolo), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

10'

Sassuolo

Corner, Sassuolo.

9'

D. Moreira

Attempt blocked. D. Moreira (AC Milan), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

8'

D. Bakola

Attempt missed. D. Bakola (Sassuolo), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

1'

Kick-off: Sassuolo vs AC Milan.

Where the money is

2110840 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 1110109 EUR · live

Away 26.0 · implied 3.8%

61.5%

+57.6 vs price

Draw 1.05 · implied 95.2%

29.3%

-65.9 vs price

Home 70.0 · implied 1.4%

9.2%

+7.8 vs price

Half time 6520 EUR · live

Away 3.25 · implied 30.8%

44.9%

+14.1 vs price

Draw 2.0 · implied 50.0%

35.8%

-14.2 vs price

Home 5.1 · implied 19.6%

19.4%

-0.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 539204 EUR · live

Under 1.05 · implied 95.2%

77.1%

-18.1 vs price

Over 21.0 · implied 4.8%

22.9%

+18.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 8047 EUR · live

Under 1.03 · implied 97.1%

86.8%

-10.3 vs price

Over 30.0 · implied 3.3%

13.2%

+9.9 vs price

17 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

20' 🔁 K. De Winter ◂ M. Gabbia

26' 🔁 C. Odenthal ◂ F. Leysen

41' P. Estupiñán · Foul

Half-time · 0–0

45'⁺³ K. De Winter · Foul

46' 🔁 L. Modrić ◂ P. Estupiñán

60' 🔁 K. Thorstvedt ◂ V. Adžić

60' 🔁 K. Bowie ◂ S. Esposito

63' ⚽ A. Rabiot · assist L. Modrić0–1

68' ⚽ C. Odenthal1–1

78' 🔁 A. Cissè ◂ C. Pulišić

78' 🔁 A. Jashari ◂ Y. Musah

79' 🔁 L. Lipani ◂ N. Matić

79' 🔁 S. Cinquegrano ◂ I. Van der Brempt

85' 🔁 O. Hutchinson ◂ S. Chukwueze

87' G. Ramos · Time wasting

Full-time · 1–1

90'⁺¹ S. Pavlović · Foul

90'⁺⁴ K. Thorstvedt · Foul

Coaches

Alberto Aquilani

Rúben Amorim

Recent form

Sassuolo

LAMonza1-2

WHJuventus3-2

DABologna2-2

DHFrosinone1-1

WHTorino2-1

AC Milan

WHLecce3-0

LHBenfica0-2

DALazio2-2

DAJuventus1-1

WHVenezia2-0

About this match

**Sassuolo rolls the dice at home against a Milan side that just got schooled by Benfica.** Both sides sit 2W-2D-1L, but the Neroverdi have that home Mapei magic while the Rossoneri are struggling to find rhythm in Europe. 🎯

Sassuolo's missing half their defense — **Volpato, Boloca, Koné, Idzes, and Paz all out** — which is brutal. Milan's injury list is shorter but **Saelemaekers and Estupiñán down** still stings their wingback depth. Expect a cagey, tactical affair.

Key storylines:

- **Berardi and Chukwueze** need to carry the creative load in a match where both midfields will fight for control
- Sassuolo's weakened backline means **Doig and Cinquegrano** have to be flawless; Milan will hunt wide
- **Modrić's class vs Matić's work rate** — a midfield battle that could define possession

Expected lineups:

- **Sassuolo**: A. Murić, J. Doig, C. Odenthal, S. Cinquegrano, N. Matić, A. Ghion, D. Bakola, A. Laurienté, K. Bowie, D. Berardi
- **AC Milan**: M. Maignan, D. Bartesaghi, S. Pavlović, K. De Winter, Y. Musah, L. Modrić, A. Rabiot, G. Ramos, S. Chukwueze

Prediction:

**1-1 draw.** Both defenses look shaky; neither side has enough attacking cohesion to break through. A fair split feels like the lean. ⚽

Where to watch

Disney+ Premium Argentina

Match facts

Stadium

Mapei Stadium

City

Reggio Emilia

Referee

Francesco Fourneau

3.00 yellows/match · 25 matches

Kickoff

11 Oct, 16:00 UTC

Competition

Serie A

Highlights & clips

Sassuolo 4-3-3 · 4-4-2 AC Milan

49 A. Murić 7.6 46 S. Cinquegrano 6.8 ↑ 79' 15 D. Ćaleta-Car 6.7 26 C. Odenthal 7.9 ↑ 26' 3 J. Doig 6.6 42 K. Thorstvedt 6.5 ↑ 60' 35 L. Lipani 6.7 ↑ 79' 50 D. Bakola 7.1 10 D. Berardi 7.3 9 K. Bowie 6.5 ↑ 60' 45 A. Laurienté 7.4 16 M. Maignan 7.4 34 M. Gila 7.0 5 K. De Winter 7.0 ↑ 20' 31 S. Pavlović 6.9 14 L. Modrić 7.2 ↑ 46' 20 O. Hutchinson 6.5 ↑ 85' 30 A. Jashari 6.6 ↑ 78' 12 A. Rabiot 7.8 22 D. Moreira 7.7 70 A. Cissè 6.6 ↑ 78' 9 G. Ramos 6.5

Top stats

41%Possession59%

1.19Expected goals (xG)1.18

10Total shots11

4Shots on target6

1Big chances3

3Corners5

Shots

4Shots off target2

2Blocked shots3

4Shots inside box10

6Shots outside box1

1Big chances missed3

0.65Goals prevented0.24

Attack

19Touches in box28

46Final third entries47

1Offsides0

11Free kicks13

3Fouled in final third3

Passing

438Passes627

380Accurate passes566

24/41 (59%)Long balls24/44 (55%)

4/11 (36%)Crosses10/21 (48%)

7Throw-ins17

Duels

52Duels48

37/71 (52%)Ground duels34/71 (48%)

6/11 (55%)Aerial duels5/11 (45%)

4/13 (31%)Dribbles6/15 (40%)

8Dispossessed13

Defending

22Tackles17

64Tackles won53

9Interceptions9

29Clearances13

55Recoveries49

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

2Big saves0

3Goal kicks7

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Sassuolo 23%

26%

Milan 52%

Who winsMilan to win (DNB) 63% · 1.38 @ 10bet

1X2Milan to win 52% · 2.20 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 57% · 3.00 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 3.80 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 68% · 1.39 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 76% · 1.89 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.72 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 26% · 2.73 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 56% · 1.73 @ betfair

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 69% · 1.52 @ Pinnacle

1X2Sassuolo to win 23% · 4.05 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

4.12

Sassuolo

3.70

Draw

1.85

AC Milan

Double Chanceconsensus

1.95

Sassuolo or Draw

1.27

Sassuolo or AC Milan

1.22

Draw or AC Milan

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.57

Yes

2.25

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

8.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

3.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

13.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.20

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.67

Over 2.50

2.24

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.56

Over 3.50

1.45

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.90

Over 4.50

1.14

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.99

Sassuolo

1.36

AC Milan

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.44

Over 7.50

2.67

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.70

Over 8.50

2.12

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.13

Over 9.50

1.68

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.77

Over 10.50

1.36

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.88

Over 11.50

1.19

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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