Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Fiorentina host Como in a dead-even tussle where recent form barely separates these two misfits.** Both sides are 2W–1D–2L across their last five, and the head-to-head leans Como's way overall — but Franchi is no joke. 🏟️
Fiorentina are coming off a sobering 1–2 loss to Genoa away, though they showed muscle with a 3–0 romp over Pisa at home. Como stuttered to a 0–0 draw vs Roma and a 0–2 spanking from Frosinone, sandwiching a chaotic 2–3 defeat to Feyenoord. Neither team screams form, but Viola usually tighten at home.
Key storylines:
- **D. De Gea** between the sticks for Fiorentina; expect Como to test the Spanish keeper early given his recent run of games
- **N. Fagioli** pulling strings in midfield while Como counter with **M. Caqueret** — battle for tempo control will shape this
- **A. Douvikas** leading Como's attack against a Fiorentina backline that just shipped two at Genoa; vulnerability up for grabs 💪
Expected lineups:
- **Fiorentina**: D. De Gea, L. Ranieri, R. Drăguşin, A. Jiménez, C. Oulaï, N. Fagioli, A. Njie, M. Pellegrino
- **Como**: J. Butez, T. Chalobah, Á. Valle, N. Paz, A. Douvikas, M. Caqueret, J. Addai
Prediction:
**Fiorentina 2–1 Como**. Slight edge to the home side's ability to grind out wins in Florence; expect a scrappy, tactical affair.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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