Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Cagliari's on a roll, but Bologna's got some **serious injury headaches** going into this one.** 🔴 The Sardinians have won three of their last five, while the Rossoblu are limping in with just one win from five—and they're without a chunk of their attack.
Cagliari grabbed draws against big guns like Juventus and wins over Udinese, so form is solid. Bologna, meanwhile, got battered by Inter and are missing **Orsolini**, **Odgaard**, and **Piccoli**—three attacking outlets. That's a **major dent** in an already sputtering attack.
Key storylines:
- **Cagliari's pace and directness** (led by **Mendy** and **Maldini**) should exploit Bologna's makeshift defense missing key players
- **Bologna's injury crisis in attack** leaves them relying on **Bernardeschi** and **Cambiaghi** to spark anything meaningful
- **H2H is dead even** (21-27 in Bologna's favor across 70 meetings)—no clear historical edge here
Expected lineups:
- **Cagliari**: E. Caprile, A. Obert, Zé Pedro, J. Rodríguez, M. Adopo, A. Romano, H. Winks, D. Maldini, J. Fazzini, P. Mendy
- **Bologna**: Ł. Skorupski, J. Miranda, T. Heggem, A. Theate, N. Zortea, L. Ferguson, M. Amondarain, N. Cambiaghi, T. Pobega, F. Bernardeschi
Prediction:
**Cagliari 2-1 Bologna** — home side edges it. Cagliari have the **momentum and a healthier squad**; Bologna's injuries are just too much to overcome right now.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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