AC Milan 2-4 Bologna: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 28, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. AC Milan 2-4 Bologna.

90+2'

Bologna

Corner, Bologna.

90+2'

J. Miranda

Attempt blocked. J. Miranda (Bologna), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

90'

F. Camarda

Attempt missed. F. Camarda (AC Milan), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

89'

AC Milan

Corner, AC Milan.

89'

C. Pulišić

Attempt saved. C. Pulišić (AC Milan), header. xG 0.06.

87'

G. Ramos

Substitution, AC Milan: C. Comotto comes on for G. Ramos.

86'

S. Mbangula

Goal! AC Milan 2-4 Bologna. S. Mbangula (Bologna) scores, assisted by J. Odgaard.

84'

T. Heggem

Yellow card for T. Heggem (Bologna) for foul.

83'

F. Camarda

Attempt missed. F. Camarda (AC Milan), header. xG 0.19.

79'

N. Casale

Substitution, Bologna: E. Helland comes on for N. Casale.

76'

T. Pobega

Yellow card for T. Pobega (Bologna) for foul.

75'

N. Cambiaghi

Attempt missed. N. Cambiaghi (Bologna), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

70'

A. Theate

Substitution, Bologna: T. Heggem comes on for A. Theate.

63'

D. Bartesaghi

Substitution, AC Milan: F. Camarda comes on for D. Bartesaghi.

62'

S. Mbangula

Goal! AC Milan 2-3 Bologna. S. Mbangula (Bologna) scores, assisted by J. Miranda.

60'

D. Bartesaghi

Goal! AC Milan 2-2 Bologna. Own goal by D. Bartesaghi.

59'

R. Alhassane

Substitution, Bologna: J. Miranda comes on for R. Alhassane.

59'

F. Bernardeschi

Substitution, Bologna: N. Cambiaghi comes on for F. Bernardeschi.

58'

P. Estupiñán

Substitution, AC Milan: S. Diawara comes on for P. Estupiñán.

58'

O. Hutchinson

Substitution, AC Milan: C. Pulišić comes on for O. Hutchinson.

58'

M. Darmian

Substitution, Bologna: M. Vitík comes on for M. Darmian.

57'

J. Odgaard

Attempt missed. J. Odgaard (Bologna), right-footed shot. xG 0.22.

51'

J. Odgaard

Attempt saved. J. Odgaard (Bologna), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

50'

Bologna

Corner, Bologna.

46'

F. Tomori

Substitution, AC Milan: L. Modrić comes on for F. Tomori.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. AC Milan 2-1 Bologna.

45'

1 minute of added time.

41'

A. Jashari

Attempt missed. A. Jashari (AC Milan), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

27'

F. Tomori

Attempt missed. F. Tomori (AC Milan), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

27'

A. Cisse

Goal! AC Milan 2-1 Bologna. A. Cisse (AC Milan) scores, assisted by F. Tomori.

25'

Bologna

Corner, Bologna.

14'

A. Cisse

Goal! AC Milan 1-1 Bologna. A. Cisse (AC Milan) scores.

8'

S. Mbangula

Goal! AC Milan 0-1 Bologna. S. Mbangula (Bologna) scores, assisted by N. Zortea.

6'

S. Mbangula

Attempt missed. S. Mbangula (Bologna), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

5'

P. Estupiñán

Attempt blocked. P. Estupiñán (AC Milan), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

4'

AC Milan

Corner, AC Milan.

1'

T. Pobega

Attempt saved. T. Pobega (Bologna), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

1'

Kick-off: AC Milan vs Bologna.

Where the money is

3358722 EUR matched · captured 2 days, 1 hour ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 2746766 EUR · live

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

66.7%

+66.6 vs price

Away 1.01 · implied 99.0%

29.3%

-69.7 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

4.3%

+4.2 vs price

Half time 2349 EUR

Home 2.34 · implied 42.7%

71.4%

+28.6 vs price

Draw 2.38 · implied 42.0%

19.8%

-22.3 vs price

Away 6.0 · implied 16.7%

8.9%

-7.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 328767 EUR · live

Over 1.2 · implied 83.3%

70.2%

-13.1 vs price

Under 6.2 · implied 16.1%

29.8%

+13.7 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 2843 EUR

Under 1.1 · implied 90.9%

95.0%

+4.0 vs price

Over 10.0 · implied 10.0%

5.1%

-5.0 vs price

18 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

8' ⚽ S. Mbangula · assist N. Zortea0–1

14' ⚽ A. Cisse1–1

27' ⚽ A. Cisse · assist F. Tomori2–1

Half-time · 2–1

46' 🔁 L. Modrić ◂ F. Tomori

58' 🔁 M. Vitík ◂ M. Darmian

58' 🔁 C. Pulišić ◂ O. Hutchinson

58' 🔁 S. Diawara ◂ P. Estupiñán

59' 🔁 N. Cambiaghi ◂ F. Bernardeschi

59' 🔁 J. Miranda ◂ R. Alhassane

60' ⚽ D. Bartesaghi2–2

62' ⚽ S. Mbangula · assist J. Miranda2–3

63' 🔁 F. Camarda ◂ D. Bartesaghi

70' 🔁 T. Heggem ◂ A. Theate

76' T. Pobega · Foul

79' 🔁 E. Helland ◂ N. Casale

84' T. Heggem · Foul

86' ⚽ S. Mbangula · assist J. Odgaard2–4

87' 🔁 C. Comotto ◂ G. Ramos

Full-time · 2–4

Coaches

Rúben Amorim

Raffaele Palladino

Recent form

AC Milan

WAUdinese2-0

LABournemouth0-3

WHAtalanta3-2

WARed Bull Salzburg4-0

DASassuolo1-1

Bologna

WACagliari2-0

LHInter1-3

WALecce2-1

DHTorino1-1

LASSC Napoli0-1

About this match

**Milan's got the San Siro fortress working, and Bologna are limping in — this feels like a Rossoneri bounce-back spot.** 🔴⚫ Ancelotti's side just took an L to Bournemouth but bounced back hard against Atalanta; they'll be hungry to keep momentum rolling at home.

Milan are heavy favorites on the H2H (51 wins to Bologna's 14) and have won 3 of their last 5. Bologna grabbed a solid 2-0 at Cagliari but got hammered 3-1 by Inter, and injuries to Orsolini and Piccoli are biting hard upfront. The Rossoneri's backline is battered too — Rabiot, Gila, and Gabbia out — but De Winter and Pavlović should hold firm enough.

Key storylines:

- **Pulišić and Ramos** need to lead Milan's creative charge with Rabiot absent; Bologna's midfield will battle hard but lack defensive depth
- **Dovbyk** is Bologna's only real outlet, isolated without Orsolini's support on the wing
- Milan's San Siro record vs Bologna's travel woes — the Rossoneri haven't lost at home to these guys recently, and it shows

Expected lineups:

- **AC Milan**: Maignan, Estupiñán, De Winter, Pavlović, Tomori, Modrić, Musah, Pulišić, Ramos, Cisse, Bartesaghi
- **Bologna**: Skorupski, Miranda, Heggem, Theate, Zortea, Ferguson, Amondarain, Cambiaghi, Odgaard, Bernardeschi, Dovbyk

Prediction:

**Milan 2–0 Bologna** — Milan edge this on home turf and fitness. 🎯

Where to watch

Disney+ Premium ArgentinaESPN 3 Argentina

Match facts

Stadium

San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

City

Milano

Referee

Juan Luca Sacchi

2.29 yellows/match · 28 matches

Kickoff

28 Oct, 17:30 UTC

Competition

Serie A

Highlights & clips

AC Milan 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1 Bologna

16 M. Maignan 5.3 14 L. Modrić 6.9 ↑ 46' 5 K. De Winter 5.8 31 S. Pavlović 6.5 13 S. Diawara 5.9 ↑ 58' 80 Y. Musah 6.3 30 A. Jashari 6.9 11 C. Pulišić 6.6 ↑ 58' 70 A. Cisse 7.5 73 F. Camarda 6.3 ↑ 63' 28 C. Comotto ↑ 87' 1 Ł. Skorupski 5.9 41 M. Vitík 6.8 ↑ 58' 5 E. Helland 6.7 ↑ 79' 14 T. Heggem 6.7 ↑ 70' 20 N. Zortea 7.2 19 L. Ferguson 6.9 4 T. Pobega 6.9 33 J. Miranda 7.2 ↑ 59' 28 N. Cambiaghi 6.7 ↑ 59' 11 S. Mbangula 9.7 21 J. Odgaard 6.5

Top stats

66%Possession34%

1.8Expected goals (xG)2.09

8Total shots9

3Shots on target5

4Big chances4

2Corners3

Shots

4Shots off target3

1Blocked shots1

6Shots inside box6

2Shots outside box3

1Hit woodwork0

2Big chances scored3

2Big chances missed1

-1.51Goals prevented-0.5

Attack

15Touches in box18

43Final third entries48

0Offsides1

16Free kicks10

1Fouled in final third1

Passing

668Passes338

593Accurate passes271

18/42 (43%)Long balls15/46 (33%)

5/13 (38%)Crosses2/7 (29%)

19Throw-ins9

Duels

51Duels49

37/73 (51%)Ground duels36/73 (49%)

15/28 (54%)Aerial duels13/28 (46%)

8/19 (42%)Dribbles7/12 (58%)

8Dispossessed11

Defending

16Tackles19

63Tackles won63

7Interceptions11

10Clearances18

49Recoveries50

Discipline

10Fouls16

0Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0Big saves1

4Goal kicks8

0Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 23 bookmakers

Milan 56%

24%

Bologna 19%

1X2Milan to win 56% · 2.15 @ William Hill

Who winsMilan to win (DNB) 69% · 1.25 @ Novibet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 69% · 1.25 @ betfair

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 57% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBTTS: No 50% · 1.25 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 52% · 5.15 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 75% · 2.28 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 24% · 2.51 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 70% · 1.40 @ Bet365

CornersOver 8.5 corners 54% · 2.08 @ Pinnacle

1X2Bologna to win 19% · 4.90 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.70

AC Milan

3.67

Draw

5.00

Bologna

Double Chanceconsensus

1.16

AC Milan or Draw

1.25

AC Milan or Bologna

2.13

Draw or Bologna

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.95

Yes

1.77

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.70

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

8.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

10.75

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.33

Over 1.50

3.30

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.09

Over 2.50

1.77

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.60

Over 3.50

1.29

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

7.15

Over 4.50

1.07

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.24

AC Milan

3.70

Bologna

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.57

Over 7.50

2.27

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.94

Over 8.50

1.78

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.60

Over 9.50

1.44

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

3.33

Over 10.50

1.25

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

4.76

Over 11.50

1.12

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

AC Milan to win or draw

✗

81% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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