Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 29, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta.

90+3'

Beto

Attempt missed. Beto (Fiorentina), header from a corner. xG 0.06.

90+2'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

90+1'

F. Mastantuono

Substitution, Fiorentina: P. Gonçalves comes on for F. Mastantuono.

90+1'

M. Pellegrino

Substitution, Fiorentina: Beto comes on for M. Pellegrino.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

90'

C. De Ketelaere

Attempt saved. C. De Ketelaere (Atalanta), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

89'

W. Gnonto

Attempt missed. W. Gnonto (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

86'

L. Bernasconi

Attempt saved. L. Bernasconi (Atalanta), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

85'

C. Oulaï

Attempt blocked. C. Oulaï (Fiorentina), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

85'

M. Brescianini

Attempt saved. M. Brescianini (Fiorentina), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.12.

84'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

84'

N. Zalewski

Substitution, Atalanta: K. Sulemana comes on for N. Zalewski.

83'

R. Obrić

Yellow card for R. Obrić (Atalanta) for foul.

82'

À. Jiménez

Attempt missed. À. Jiménez (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

81'

J. Mário

Attempt saved. J. Mário (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

79'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

79'

F. Mastantuono

Attempt blocked. F. Mastantuono (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.14.

75'

W. Gnonto

Yellow card for W. Gnonto (Fiorentina) for foul.

74'

N. Zalewski

Goal! Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta. N. Zalewski (Atalanta) scores, assisted by C. De Ketelaere.

72'

W. Gnonto

Attempt blocked. W. Gnonto (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

72'

C. Ndour

Attempt missed. C. Ndour (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

69'

A. Njie

Substitution, Fiorentina: W. Gnonto comes on for A. Njie.

65'

J. Rowe

Attempt blocked. J. Rowe (Atalanta), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

65'

N. Krstović

Attempt missed. N. Krstović (Atalanta), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

61'

J. Mário

Goal! Fiorentina 2-1 Atalanta. J. Mário (Fiorentina) scores, assisted by A. Njie.

60'

À. Jiménez

Attempt missed. À. Jiménez (Fiorentina), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

58'

E. Elmas

Substitution, Atalanta: J. Rowe comes on for E. Elmas.

57'

G. Gaetano

Substitution, Atalanta: M. Pašalić comes on for G. Gaetano.

57'

Atalanta

Corner, Atalanta.

56'

À. Jiménez

Attempt blocked. À. Jiménez (Fiorentina), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.07.

56'

Atalanta

Corner, Atalanta.

53'

A. Njie

Goal! Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta. A. Njie (Fiorentina) scores, assisted by À. Jiménez.

52'

A. Njie

Attempt missed. A. Njie (Fiorentina), header on the counter. xG 0.03.

51'

M. Pellegrino

Yellow card for M. Pellegrino (Fiorentina) for handball.

48'

F. Mastantuono

Attempt missed. F. Mastantuono (Fiorentina), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.06.

46'

N. Fagioli

Substitution, Fiorentina: C. Oulaï comes on for N. Fagioli.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Fiorentina 0-1 Atalanta.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

43'

M. Pellegrino

Attempt missed. M. Pellegrino (Fiorentina), header. xG 0.09.

42'

N. Krstović

Attempt saved. N. Krstović (Atalanta), header on the counter. xG 0.08.

41'

C. De Ketelaere

Goal! Fiorentina 0-1 Atalanta. C. De Ketelaere (Atalanta) scores, assisted by N. Zalewski.

38'

F. Mastantuono

Attempt missed. F. Mastantuono (Fiorentina), left-footed shot. xG 0.15.

37'

G. Gaetano

Attempt blocked. G. Gaetano (Atalanta), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

36'

G. Gaetano

Attempt missed. G. Gaetano (Atalanta), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

33'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

33'

M. Brescianini

Attempt blocked. M. Brescianini (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

33'

J. Mário

Attempt blocked. J. Mário (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

30'

Viery

Yellow card for Viery (Fiorentina) for foul.

29'

C. Ndour

Attempt blocked. C. Ndour (Fiorentina), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

26'

Atalanta

Offside, Atalanta.

24'

J. Mário

Attempt missed. J. Mário (Fiorentina), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

19'

E. Elmas

Attempt blocked. E. Elmas (Atalanta), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.28.

15'

N. Fagioli

Attempt missed. N. Fagioli (Fiorentina), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

15'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

14'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

14'

F. Mastantuono

Attempt missed. F. Mastantuono (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

12'

E. Elmas

Yellow card for E. Elmas (Atalanta) for foul.

10'

J. Mário

Attempt blocked. J. Mário (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

8'

Fiorentina

Corner, Fiorentina.

7'

À. Jiménez

Attempt missed. À. Jiménez (Fiorentina), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

5'

M. Pellegrino

Attempt missed. M. Pellegrino (Fiorentina), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

4'

T. Kristensen

Substitution, Atalanta: G. Scalvini comes on for T. Kristensen.

1'

Kick-off: Fiorentina vs Atalanta.

Where the money is

3212795 EUR matched · captured 1 day ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 2248825 EUR · live

Home 65.0 · implied 1.5%

56.5%

+55.0 vs price

Draw 1.04 · implied 96.2%

23.2%

-73.0 vs price

Away 95.0 · implied 1.1%

20.4%

+19.3 vs price

Half time 1637 EUR

Home 2.92 · implied 34.2%

55.8%

+21.6 vs price

Draw 2.72 · implied 36.8%

33.1%

-3.6 vs price

Away 3.35 · implied 29.9%

11.0%

-18.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 321328 EUR · live

Over 1.33 · implied 75.2%

72.2%

-3.0 vs price

Under 4.1 · implied 24.4%

27.8%

+3.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 765 EUR

Under 1.23 · implied 81.3%

54.0%

-27.3 vs price

Over 5.4 · implied 18.5%

46.0%

+27.5 vs price

18 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

4' 🔁 G. Scalvini ◂ T. Kristensen

12' E. Elmas · Foul

30' Viery · Foul

41' ⚽ C. De Ketelaere · assist N. Zalewski0–1

Half-time · 0–1

46' 🔁 C. Oulaï ◂ N. Fagioli

51' M. Pellegrino · Handball

53' ⚽ A. Njie · assist À. Jiménez1–1

57' 🔁 M. Pašalić ◂ G. Gaetano

58' 🔁 J. Rowe ◂ E. Elmas

61' ⚽ J. Mário · assist A. Njie2–1

69' 🔁 W. Gnonto ◂ A. Njie

74' ⚽ N. Zalewski · assist C. De Ketelaere2–2

75' W. Gnonto · Foul

83' R. Obrić · Foul

84' 🔁 K. Sulemana ◂ N. Zalewski

Full-time · 2–2

90'⁺¹ 🔁 Beto ◂ M. Pellegrino

90'⁺¹ 🔁 P. Gonçalves ◂ F. Mastantuono

Coaches

Paolo Vanoli

Maurizio Sarri

Recent form

Fiorentina

LAInter1-2

LHComo1-3

LAGenoa1-2

DHSSC Napoli1-1

WHPisa3-0

Atalanta

DHFrosinone4-4

LAAFC Ajax0-2

LAAC Milan2-3

WHPafos FC3-1

WHVenezia3-1

About this match

**Fiorentina's in free fall, and Atalanta's got injury chaos** — but the Viola still hold a serious historical edge at home. 🔴

Fiorentina's stumbled badly (1W in five), while Atalanta's juggling five missing players and just limped back from Ajax. The hosts have owned this fixture over 89 meetings, though recent form says proceed with caution on anyone.

Key storylines:

- **De Gea** and **Carnesecchi** battle it out in a keeper's duel with Fiorentina needing a clean sheet desperately
- **Scamacca** and **Krstović** spearhead Atalanta's attack despite the injury crisis — firepower that can punish sloppy defending
- Fiorentina's midfield depth (Fagioli, Ndour) has to control the tempo without Pongračić's stability at the back

Expected lineups:

- **Fiorentina**: De Gea, Drăguşin, Jiménez, Ranieri, Valdepeñas, Ndour, Fagioli, Atta, Mastantuono, Pellegrino, Njie
- **Atalanta**: Carnesecchi, Kristensen, Obrić, Plaia, Hien, Éderson, Gaetano, Zappacosta, De Ketelaere, Krstović, Scamacca

Prediction:

**1-1 draw** — both teams too fragile to steal it. Fiorentina's form is rotten, but Atalanta's decimated squad makes this a coin flip. 🎲

Where to watch

ESPN 2 ArgentinaESPN 2 Sur

Match facts

Stadium

Stadio Artemio Franchi

City

Florence

Referee

Federico La Penna

3.00 yellows/match · 32 matches

Kickoff

29 Oct, 19:45 UTC

Competition

Serie A

Highlights & clips

Fiorentina 4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1 Atalanta

43 D. De Gea 7.3 20 À. Jiménez 8.0 3 R. Drăguşin 6.4 33 Viery 7.8 17 J. Mário 8.2 27 C. Ndour 6.8 42 C. Oulaï 7.0 ↑ 46' 4 M. Brescianini 6.5 28 P. Gonçalves ↑ 90' 23 Beto ↑ 90' 29 W. Gnonto 6.3 ↑ 69' 29 M. Carnesecchi 5.8 77 D. Zappacosta 6.7 42 G. Scalvini 6.8 ↑ 4' 40 R. Obrić 7.7 47 L. Bernasconi 7.0 8 M. Pašalić 6.6 ↑ 57' 13 Éderson 6.3 11 J. Rowe 6.6 ↑ 58' 17 C. De Ketelaere 9.0 7 K. Sulemana 6.4 ↑ 84' 90 N. Krstović 6.8

Substitutes

53GO. Christensen 19GL. Lezzerini 21DV. Valdepeñas 75DD. Beldenti 2DDodô 44MN. Fagioli↓ 46'6.5 72MB. Mazzeo 73MA. Pirrò 25FA. Njie↓ 69'8.2 30FF. Mastantuono↓ 90'7.4 32FM. Pellegrino↓ 90'6.5

Coach: Paolo Vanoli

Substitutes

57GM. Sportiello 51GM. Sonzogni 31DT. Kristensen↓ 4' 53DM. Plaia 59MN. Zalewski↓ 84'8.8 70MG. Gaetano↓ 57'7.4 99ME. Elmas↓ 58'6.4 41MJ. Idele 10ML. Samardžić

Coach: Maurizio Sarri

Top stats

50%Possession50%

1.64Expected goals (xG)1.14

26Total shots10

4Shots on target5

2Big chances2

8Corners2

Shots

14Shots off target2

8Blocked shots3

12Shots inside box8

14Shots outside box2

1Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed1

0.59Goals prevented-1.33

Attack

39Touches in box31

49Final third entries29

0Offsides1

13Free kicks10

3Fouled in final third0

Passing

467Passes480

406Accurate passes410

24/38 (63%)Long balls18/37 (49%)

5/25 (20%)Crosses3/7 (43%)

20Throw-ins15

Duels

49Duels51

43/86 (50%)Ground duels43/86 (50%)

7/16 (44%)Aerial duels9/16 (56%)

9/20 (45%)Dribbles7/17 (41%)

16Dispossessed12

Defending

22Tackles27

59Tackles won63

7Interceptions10

16Clearances29

50Recoveries47

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

2Big saves1

9Goal kicks14

0Punches3

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 22 bookmakers

Fiorentina 42%

26%

Atalanta 32%

Who winsAtalanta to win (DNB) 53% · 2.09 @ Novibet

BTTSBoth teams to score 64% · 2.50 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 59% · 3.02 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.71 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 58% · 1.73 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 26% · 2.84 @ 1xBet

1X2Atalanta to win 32% · 3.00 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 65% · 1.43 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53% · 1.79 @ Pinnacle

1X2Fiorentina to win 42% · 2.62 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 64% · 1.74 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.27

Fiorentina

3.70

Draw

2.88

Atalanta

Double Chanceconsensus

1.38

Fiorentina or Draw

1.29

Fiorentina or Atalanta

1.60

Draw or Atalanta

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.40

Yes

2.83

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

5.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

6.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

13.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.14

Over 1.50

5.29

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.50

Over 2.50

2.60

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.20

Over 3.50

1.69

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

3.71

Over 4.50

1.27

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.68

Fiorentina

2.05

Atalanta

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.31

Over 7.50

2.95

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.62

Over 8.50

2.21

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.00

Over 9.50

1.77

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.59

Over 10.50

1.42

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.43

Over 11.50

1.23

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Report a data issue