Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Nice are in freefall while Lille smell blood** — the hosts haven't won in five and face a Lille side that's clicked into gear. This could get ugly quick. ⚽
Nice are winless in their last five with three draws masking some genuinely rough defeats (0-3 to Paris FC is yikes). Lille, meanwhile, just scraped past Real Betis and are rolling with **three wins in their last four**. The gulf in momentum is real.
Key storylines:
- **Edon Wahi** will need to carry Nice's attacking load in the absence of four key players, including two major injury blows at the back
- **Olivier Giroud** and **Hakon Haraldsson** face a makeshift Nice defence stretched thin by injury
- Nice's injury crisis on the backline vs **Lille's attacking depth** — expect the visitors to probe early and often
Expected lineups:
- **Nice**: Diouf, Mandza, Ndayishimiye, Witsel, Koutoune, Pereira, Clauss, Coulibaly
- **Lille**: Özer, Perraud, Ribeiro, Ngoy, Santos, Bentaleb, André, Giroud
Prediction:
**Lille 2-0 Nice**
Lille should have the edge here — Nice's injury toll is too steep and their form too dodgy to mount a real threat at home.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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