Stade Brestois 1-2 Nice: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 23, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Stade Brestois 1-2 Nice.

90+10'

K. Lala

Penalty missed! K. Lala (Stade Brestois), saved.

90+10'

N. Edjouma

Attempt missed. N. Edjouma (Stade Brestois), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.08.

90+8'

I. Jansson

Yellow card for I. Jansson (Nice) for foul.

90+7'

I. Y. Kante

VAR: no penalty for Stade Brestois.

90+3'

G. Lloris

Attempt saved. G. Lloris (Stade Brestois), header from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

90+2'

Stade Brestois

Corner, Stade Brestois.

90'

6 minutes of added time.

90'

O. Pantaloni

Yellow card for O. Pantaloni (Nice) for argument.

90'

N. Nkounkou

Yellow card for N. Nkounkou (Nice) for foul.

87'

H. Magnetti

Substitution, Stade Brestois: M. Lainé comes on for H. Magnetti.

85'

Y. Diouf

Yellow card for Y. Diouf (Nice) for time wasting.

83'

S. Diop

Goal! Stade Brestois 1-2 Nice. S. Diop (Nice) scores, assisted by E. Wahi.

83'

H. Magnetti

Attempt missed. H. Magnetti (Stade Brestois), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.

83'

Nice

Offside, Nice.

80'

J. Chotard

Substitution, Stade Brestois: M. Diambou comes on for J. Chotard.

80'

K. Doumbia

Substitution, Stade Brestois: I. Y. Kante comes on for K. Doumbia.

79'

L. Tousart

Attempt saved. L. Tousart (Stade Brestois), header from a set piece. xG 0.03.

76'

M. E. A. Amoura

Substitution, Nice: I. Jansson comes on for M. E. A. Amoura.

76'

A. Witsel

Substitution, Nice: D. Coulibaly comes on for A. Witsel.

71'

B. Locko

Yellow card for B. Locko (Stade Brestois) for foul.

70'

P. Mboup

Substitution, Stade Brestois: N. Edjouma comes on for P. Mboup.

70'

M. Baldé

Substitution, Stade Brestois: J. Nonge comes on for M. Baldé.

68'

S. Diop

Attempt missed. S. Diop (Nice), header. xG 0.04.

68'

E. Wahi

Yellow card for E. Wahi (Nice) for argument.

66'

Nice

Corner, Nice.

64'

L. Ajorque

Yellow card for L. Ajorque (Stade Brestois) for foul.

63'

G. Hein

Substitution, Nice: S. Diop comes on for G. Hein.

62'

K. Doumbia

Yellow card for K. Doumbia (Stade Brestois) for foul.

61'

E. Wahi

Goal! Stade Brestois 1-1 Nice. E. Wahi (Nice) scores, assisted by M. E. A. Amoura.

60'

Nice

Corner, Nice.

58'

H. Koutoune

Yellow card for H. Koutoune (Nice) for foul.

54'

J. Clauss

Substitution, Nice: H. Koutoune comes on for J. Clauss.

54'

Nice

Corner, Nice.

50'

Nice

Offside, Nice.

48'

H. Magnetti

Attempt saved. H. Magnetti (Stade Brestois), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

47'

K. Lala

Attempt saved. K. Lala (Stade Brestois), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

47'

Stade Brestois

Corner, Stade Brestois.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Stade Brestois 1-0 Nice.

45'

1 minute of added time.

39'

P. Mboup

Attempt blocked. P. Mboup (Stade Brestois), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

37'

K. Doumbia

Attempt missed. K. Doumbia (Stade Brestois), left-footed shot. xG 0.43.

34'

Nice

Offside, Nice.

31'

J. Clauss

Attempt blocked. J. Clauss (Nice), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

31'

M. E. A. Amoura

Attempt missed. M. E. A. Amoura (Nice), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

31'

Nice

Corner, Nice.

30'

Nice

Offside, Nice.

29'

Stade Brestois

Corner, Stade Brestois.

23'

M. E. A. Amoura

Attempt blocked. M. E. A. Amoura (Nice), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

22'

Nice

Corner, Nice.

17'

M. E. A. Amoura

Attempt blocked. M. E. A. Amoura (Nice), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

17'

Nice

Corner, Nice.

15'

L. Ajorque

Goal! Stade Brestois 1-0 Nice. L. Ajorque (Stade Brestois) scores.

13'

M. E. A. Amoura

Attempt missed. M. E. A. Amoura (Nice), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

12'

P. Mboup

Attempt saved. P. Mboup (Stade Brestois), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

9'

B. Locko

Attempt blocked. B. Locko (Stade Brestois), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

9'

B. Locko

Attempt missed. B. Locko (Stade Brestois), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

8'

A. Seidu

Attempt missed. A. Seidu (Nice), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

5'

Nice

Corner, Nice.

4'

Stade Brestois

Offside, Stade Brestois.

1'

Kick-off: Stade Brestois vs Nice.

Where the money is

1034708 EUR matched · captured 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 673996 EUR · live

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

44.4%

+44.3 vs price

Away 1.03 · implied 97.1%

36.1%

-61.0 vs price

Draw 36.0 · implied 2.8%

19.6%

+16.8 vs price

Half time 564 EUR

Draw 2.46 · implied 40.7%

91.3%

+50.6 vs price

Away 3.75 · implied 26.7%

14.7%

-11.9 vs price

Home 3.0 · implied 33.3%

0.4%

-33.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 156022 EUR · live

Over 3.15 · implied 31.7%

72.6%

+40.9 vs price

Under 1.46 · implied 68.5%

27.4%

-41.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 190 EUR

Under 1.17 · implied 85.5%

86.6%

+1.1 vs price

Over 7.4 · implied 13.5%

13.4%

-0.1 vs price

17 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Player of the match

Match events

15' ⚽ L. Ajorque1–0

Half-time · 1–0

54' 🔁 H. Koutoune ◂ J. Clauss

58' H. Koutoune · Foul

61' ⚽ E. Wahi · assist M. E. A. Amoura1–1

62' K. Doumbia · Foul

63' 🔁 S. Diop ◂ G. Hein

64' L. Ajorque · Foul

68' E. Wahi · Argument

70' 🔁 J. Nonge ◂ M. Baldé

70' 🔁 N. Edjouma ◂ P. Mboup

71' B. Locko · Foul

76' 🔁 D. Coulibaly ◂ A. Witsel

76' 🔁 I. Jansson ◂ M. E. A. Amoura

80' 🔁 I. Y. Kante ◂ K. Doumbia

80' 🔁 M. Diambou ◂ J. Chotard

83' ⚽ S. Diop · assist E. Wahi1–2

85' Y. Diouf · Time wasting

87' 🔁 M. Lainé ◂ H. Magnetti

Full-time · 1–2

90' N. Nkounkou · Foul

90' O. Pantaloni · Argument

90'⁺⁷ VAR Penalty check · I. Y. Kante

90'⁺⁸ I. Jansson · Foul

90'⁺¹⁰ 🚫 Penalty missed · K. Lala

Coaches

Julien Lachuer

Olivier Pantaloni

Recent form

Stade Brestois

DALille1-1

WHAngers5-1

DHMonza2-2

LAAuxerre1-2

LHParis Saint-Germain0-1

Nice

LAOlympique Lyonnais1-2

WHRC Strasbourg2-1

WHLille2-1

LAAuxerre0-1

DHLe Mans1-1

About this match

**Brest's home fortress meets a Nice side in freefall.** This is where the Brittany boys make life hell for visitors, and Nice just can't seem to catch a break. 🔴⚪

Brest are solid at the Stade Francis-Le Blé — mix of wins, draws, and the occasional demolition job keeping them sharp. Nice have won two of their last five but just took a beating at Lyon; they're nursing a depleted squad with four key bodies out.

Key storylines:

- **Brest's midfield engine** — P. Mboup and H. Magnetti anchor a team that suffocates teams in their own backyard
- **Nice's injury crisis** spreads thin across defense and midfield; A. Mendy, L. Abergel, and M. Bombito all sidelined leaves little room for error
- **L. Ajorque and M. Baldé** up front give Brest a sharp edge in attack at home

Expected lineups:

- **Stade Brestois**: E. Selvik, B. Locko, J. Chotard, G. Lloris, K. Lala, P. Mboup, H. Magnetti, L. Ajorque, K. Doumbia, N. Edjouma, M. Baldé
- **Nice**: Y. Diouf, M. E. A. Amoura, Y. Ndayishimiye, M. Abdelmonem, J. Clauss, E. Pereira, D. Coulibaly, H. Boudaoui, X. Mandza, E. Wahi, I. Jansson

Prediction:

**Brest 2-0 Nice**

Brest's home fortress and Nice's injury pile-up tip this firmly toward the hosts. 💪

Where to watch

TOD

Match facts

Stadium

Stade Francis-Le Ble

City

Brest

Referee

Guillaume Paradis

3.95 yellows/match · 38 matches

Kickoff

23 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Competition

Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1 Nice

1 E. Selvik 6.1 70 K. Lala 7.5 29 L. Tousart 6.4 4 G. Lloris 6.6 2 B. Locko 6.0 6 M. Diambou 6.4 ↑ 80' 32 M. Lainé 6.6 ↑ 87' 7 J. Nonge 7.1 ↑ 70' 21 I. Y. Kante 6.9 ↑ 80' 11 N. Edjouma 6.4 ↑ 70' 19 L. Ajorque 7.8 23 Y. Diouf 7.2 36 A. Seidu 7.0 55 Y. Ndayishimiye 6.3 5 M. Abdelmonem 7.3 84 H. Koutoune 6.6 ↑ 54' 39 D. Coulibaly 6.5 ↑ 76' 6 H. Boudaoui 6.7 27 N. Nkounkou 6.6 10 S. Diop 7.6 ↑ 63' 21 I. Jansson 5.9 ↑ 76' 11 E. Wahi 7.8

Substitutes

30GM. Patouillet 18DJ. Bourgault 20DL. Zogbé 13MJ. Chotard↓ 80'7.4 8MH. Magnetti↓ 87'6.9 9MP. Mboup↓ 70'6.3 23MK. Doumbia↓ 80'5.8 17FM. Baldé↓ 70'6.3 39FD. N'Guessan

Coach: Julien Lachuer

Substitutes

77GT. Boulhendi 28MA. Witsel↓ 76'7.4 92MJ. Clauss↓ 54'6.6 7MG. Hein↓ 63'6.5 35MX. Mandza 29MN. Ngoumou 8MM. Sanson 9FM. E. A. Amoura↓ 76'6.9 41FD. Morana

Coach: Olivier Pantaloni

Top stats

50%Possession50%

2.48Expected goals (xG)0.44

13Total shots9

7Shots on target2

4Big chances1

3Corners7

Shots

4Shots off target4

2Blocked shots3

7Shots inside box4

6Shots outside box5

1Big chances scored1

3Big chances missed1

-0.35Goals prevented0.96

Attack

21Touches in box15

69Final third entries42

1Offsides4

14Free kicks14

3Fouled in final third2

Passing

464Passes453

374Accurate passes370

28/68 (41%)Long balls19/52 (37%)

4/13 (31%)Crosses4/19 (21%)

21Throw-ins11

Duels

55Duels45

35/69 (51%)Ground duels34/69 (49%)

17/25 (68%)Aerial duels8/25 (32%)

6/12 (50%)Dribbles3/13 (23%)

14Dispossessed4

Defending

14Tackles20

50Tackles won70

9Interceptions13

19Clearances27

52Recoveries59

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow cards5

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

5Goal kicks3

1Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers

Brest 43%

27%

Nice 30%

BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.80 @ William Hill

CornersOver 9.5 corners 50% · 1.87 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 62% · 1.51 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 3.90 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.91 @ 1xBet

Who winsBrest to win (DNB) 62% · 1.68 @ Betsson

1X2Draw 27% · 2.64 @ 1xBet

1X2Nice to win 30% · 3.30 @ 1xBet

1X2Brest to win 43% · 2.50 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 61% · 1.57 @ Pinnacle

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 65% · 1.50 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.20

Stade Brestois

3.50

Draw

3.10

Nice

Double Chanceconsensus

1.35

Stade Brestois or Draw

1.29

Stade Brestois or Nice

1.64

Draw or Nice

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.55

Yes

2.30

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

4.33

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

6.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

13.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.29

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.71

Over 2.50

2.15

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.67

Over 3.50

1.47

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.97

Over 4.50

1.15

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.65

Stade Brestois

2.10

Nice

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.23

Over 7.50

3.12

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.48

Over 8.50

2.44

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.83

Over 9.50

1.94

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.26

Over 10.50

1.55

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.83

Over 11.50

1.32

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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