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Martin Varini
Club Necaxa
Cruz Azul
Club Necaxa
3-5-2 · 5-4-1
Cruz Azul
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
52600 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
87.9%
-11.1 vs price
Home
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
8.3%
+8.2 vs price
Draw
950.0 · implied 0.1%
3.9%
+3.7 vs price
Half time
279 EUR · live
Away
3.4 · implied 29.4%
70.0%
+40.5 vs price
Home
5.5 · implied 18.2%
18.7%
+0.5 vs price
Draw
1.95 · implied 51.3%
11.1%
-40.2 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
15803 EUR · live
Under
4.4 · implied 22.7%
50.7%
+28.0 vs price
Over
1.28 · implied 78.1%
49.3%
-28.8 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
1593 EUR · live
Under
1.16 · implied 86.2%
91.3%
+5.1 vs price
Over
6.6 · implied 15.2%
8.6%
-6.6 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 5 clips
Player of the match
Match events
23'
⚽
J. Márquez · assist C. Rodríguez0–1
32'
🔁
M. Zaleta ◂ C. A. V. Tenorio
43'
D. Leyva · Foul
Half-time · 0–1
46'
⚽
N. Ibáñez · assist C. Rodríguez0–2
46'
🔁
J. Torres ◂ M. Espíndola
46'
🔁
R. Martínez ◂ K. Naves
53'
⚽
W. Ditta · assist J. Paradela0–3
54'
W. Ditta
59'
A. Garcia · Foul
61'
🔁
E. Rodriguez ◂ O. González
61'
🔁
P. Pedraza ◂ L. Faravelli
67'
J. Ruiz · Foul
73'
🔁
G. Fernández ◂ N. Ibáñez
73'
🔁
J. R. Barragan ◂ R. González
73'
🔁
L. Romero ◂ J. Márquez
78'
🔁
R. C. Pineda ◂ D. Leyva
83'
⚽
E. Rodriguez · assist P. Pedraza1–3
84'
🔁
A. Montes ◂ A. Garcia
84'
🔁
O. Ebere ◂ J. Paradela
84'
E. Rodriguez
86'
🔁
J. Díaz ◂ O. Campos
Full-time · 1–3
90'+4
J. Torres · Argument
90'+4
P. Pedraza · Foul
Coaches
Martin VariniJoel Huiqui 
Recent form
Club NecaxaDAPumas UNAM1-1
LHClub León1-2
LACD Toluca1-3
WHCF Monterrey2-1
WHAtlante FC2-1
Cruz AzulLHAtlas FC0-2
LAClub Tijuana1-2
LHAtlante FC2-3
WHClub Puebla2-1
WAAtlético San Luis3-2
Where to watch
FOX+
FOX OneFox DeportesfuboTV
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Victoria
City
Aguascalientes
Kickoff
29 Aug, 01:00 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Apertura
Highlights & clips
Club Necaxa
3-5-2 · 5-4-1
Cruz Azul
12
L. Jimenez
6.7
33
R. Martínez
6.2
↑ 46'
4
A. Peña
6.3
3
A. Oliveros
6.2
99
E. Rodriguez
8.2
↑ 61'
11
J. Torres
6.4
↑ 46'
17
R. C. Pineda
6.7
↑ 78'
16
P. Pedraza
6.7
↑ 61'
14
M. Zaleta
6.7
↑ 32'
9
J. Carranza
6.7
10
J. Ruiz
6.5
23
K. Mier
6.7
22
J. R. Barragan
6.5
↑ 73'
4
W. Ditta
7.7
12
A. Montes
6.7
↑ 84'
5
J. Orozco
6.4
49
J. Díaz
6.9
↑ 86'
11
O. Ebere
6.4
↑ 84'
8
A. Palavecino
7.3
21
G. Fernández
6.7
↑ 73'
19
C. Rodríguez
7.2
18
L. Romero
7.0
↑ 73'
Top stats
46%Possession54%
0.44Expected goals (xG)1.91
13Total shots22
4Shots on target8
0Big chances3
7Corners7
Shots
5Shots off target10
4Blocked shots4
2Shots inside box8
11Shots outside box14
0Hit woodwork0
0Big chances scored1
0Big chances missed2
-0.64Goals prevented-0.2
Attack
7Touches in box20
46Final third entries48
0Offsides1
14Free kicks15
1Fouled in final third4
Passing
403Passes478
333Accurate passes396
28/53 (53%)Long balls31/59 (53%)
3/11 (27%)Crosses4/13 (31%)
15Throw-ins28
Duels
51Duels49
38/73 (52%)Ground duels35/73 (48%)
5/12 (42%)Aerial duels7/12 (58%)
6/16 (38%)Dribbles3/9 (33%)
7Dispossessed12
Defending
18Tackles17
78Tackles won59
6Interceptions9
22Clearances10
49Recoveries57
Discipline
15Fouls14
5Yellow cards2
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
1Big saves1
13Goal kicks8
1Punches3
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 28 bookmakers
Who winsCruz Azul to win (DNB) 57% · 1.48 @ 10bet
1X2Cruz Azul to win 46% · 2.30 @ 10bet
CornersOver 9.5 corners 55% · 1.93 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.54 @ Pinnacle
BTTSBoth teams to score 59% · 2.88 @ 10bet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 58% · 3.80 @ 10bet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.91 @ 10bet
1X2Draw 26% · 2.75 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 65% · 1.50 @ betfair
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 56% · 1.52 @ Pinnacle
1X2Necaxa to win 28% · 3.46 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.35
Club Necaxa
3.60
Draw
1.98
Cruz Azul
Double Chanceconsensus
1.77
Club Necaxa or Draw
1.25
Club Necaxa or Cruz Azul
1.29
Draw or Cruz Azul
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.58
Yes
2.25
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
4.50
YES
1.17
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
3.00
YES
1.33
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
6.12
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
3.92
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.01
Over 0.50
12.60
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.17
Over 1.50
4.59
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.60
Over 2.50
2.24
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.52
Over 3.50
1.48
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.55
Over 4.50
1.17
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.55
Club Necaxa
1.45
Cruz Azul
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.28
Over 7.50
2.96
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.53
Over 8.50
2.25
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.91
Over 9.50
1.83
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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