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CD Toluca
CD Toluca
CD Toluca
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
CD Toluca
A. Mohamed
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
CD Toluca
CD Toluca
CD Toluca
CD Toluca
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
Victor Vucetich
Tigres UANL
CD Toluca
Tigres UANL
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
CD Toluca
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Tigres UANL 3-2 CD Toluca.
90+5'
CD Toluca
Corner, CD Toluca.
90+5'
CD Toluca
Corner, CD Toluca.
90'
6 minutes of added time.
79'
CD Toluca
Corner, CD Toluca.
68'
Tigres UANL
Corner, Tigres UANL.
65'
Tigres UANL
Corner, Tigres UANL.
60'
Goal! Tigres UANL 3-2 CD Toluca. J. Brunetta (Tigres UANL) scores, assisted by F. Gorriarán.
56'
CD Toluca
Offside, CD Toluca.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Tigres UANL 2-1 CD Toluca.
45'
4 minutes of added time.
45'
A. Mohamed
Red card! A. Mohamed (CD Toluca) is sent off for argument.
44'
Tigres UANL
Offside, Tigres UANL.
44'
Tigres UANL
Corner, Tigres UANL.
41'
CD Toluca
Corner, CD Toluca.
41'
CD Toluca
Corner, CD Toluca.
40'
CD Toluca
Corner, CD Toluca.
37'
Goal! Tigres UANL 2-0 CD Toluca. G. Martínez (Tigres UANL) scores, assisted by E. Gómez.
36'
CD Toluca
Offside, CD Toluca.
30'
Attempt saved. J. Brunetta (Tigres UANL), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.
28'
Tigres UANL
Corner, Tigres UANL.
23'
Attempt saved. J. Brunetta (Tigres UANL), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.
17'
Attempt saved. J. Brunetta (Tigres UANL), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.01.
6'
Tigres UANL
Corner, Tigres UANL.
3'
Tigres UANL
Corner, Tigres UANL.
1'
Kick-off: Tigres UANL vs CD Toluca.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
221274 EUR · live
Home
1.04 · implied 96.2%
71.5%
-24.6 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
24.9%
+24.8 vs price
Draw
15.0 · implied 6.7%
3.6%
-3.1 vs price
Half time
1590 EUR · live
Home
1.47 · implied 68.0%
75.1%
+7.1 vs price
Away
11.0 · implied 9.1%
23.6%
+14.5 vs price
Draw
4.1 · implied 24.4%
1.2%
-23.2 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
8161 EUR · live
Under
8.4 · implied 11.9%
58.6%
+46.7 vs price
Over
1.13 · implied 88.5%
41.4%
-47.1 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
4426 EUR · live
Under
1.22 · implied 82.0%
88.3%
+6.4 vs price
Over
5.8 · implied 17.2%
11.6%
-5.6 vs price
14 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
6'
⚽
J. Brunetta1–0
33'
A. Vega · Argument
37'
⚽
G. Martínez · assist E. Gómez2–0
42'
⚽
Paulinho · assist B. García2–1
43'
B. García · Foul
Half-time · 2–1
45'
A. Mohamed · Argument
46'
🔁
F. Viñas ◂ É. Gutiérrez
54'
⚽
F. Viñas · assist Helinho2–2
60'
⚽
J. Brunetta · assist F. Gorriarán3–2
69'
🔁
V. Loroña ◂ A. Franco
69'
🔁
D. Sánchez ◂ E. Gómez
70'
🔁
J. R. Angulo ◂ A. Vega
71'
🔁
J. Díaz ◂ Helinho
71'
🔁
S. Simón ◂ B. García
77'
🔁
O. Herrera ◂ D. Lainez
77'
🔁
R. Aguirre ◂ G. Martínez
89'
🔁
J. Garza ◂ J. Brunetta
Full-time · 3–2
90'
V. Loroña · Foul
90'
🔁
P. Pérez ◂ N. Castro
90'+3
F. Pereira · Argument
90'+3
F. Romero · Argument
Coaches
Victor VucetichAntonio Mohamed 
Recent form
Tigres UANLWHClub Puebla1-0
LAFC Juárez0-2
DACF Monterrey0-0
DHClub Necaxa1-1
DASantos Laguna0-0
CD TolucaLACF Monterrey1-2
DACruz Azul3-3
LHSantos Laguna2-3
WAClub Puebla1-0
WHAtlas FC5-2
About this match
**Tigres host Toluca in a clash where home advantage meets redemption vibes.** Monterrey's boys need to bounce back after that embarrassing Juárez loss, while Toluca arrive as the slight favorites on paper — they've got the better record in the matchup and more recent wins under their belt. 🔥
Tigres are grinding without F. Reyes and J. Angulo, which stings. But they've got decent form at the Estadio Universitario and won't roll over. Toluca are streaky — two wins, two losses in the last five tells you they're a classic "any given Saturday" outfit.
Key storylines:
- **R. Monreal** leads Tigres' attack but they're missing key depth with injuries piling up in attack
- **Helinho** and **V. Guzmán** form Toluca's creative core; if they find rhythm early, Tigres' defense could be overrun
- Home-field pressure: Tigres tend to tighten up at the Estadio but Toluca have the H2H edge historically (21 wins vs 13)
Expected lineups:
- **Tigres UANL**: N. Guzmán, Romulo, Joaquim, A. Franco, F. Gorriarán, C. Araújo, O. Herrera, D. Lainez, R. Monreal
- **CD Toluca**: L. García, F. Pereira, Bruno Méndez, F. Romero, N. Castro, J. R. Angulo, V. Guzmán, Helinho, I. López
Prediction:
**1-1 draw.** Both sides have the talent to break through but neither looks sharp enough to put the other away — classic Liga MX midtable scrap. ⚽
Where to watch
Azteca 7Azteca DeportesFOX Mexico
Estrella TVFOX OneFox DeportesFox Sports 2NBC UNIVERSOWMBC TV 63
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Universitario (UANL)
City
Monterrey
Kickoff
10 Oct, 03:00 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Apertura
Highlights & clips
Tigres UANL
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
CD Toluca
1
N. Guzmán
7.4
32
V. Loroña
7.6
↑ 69'
28
Joaquim
7.0
33
R. Guerrero
7.0
19
M. Laínez
6.6
8
F. Gorriarán
7.2
5
C. Araújo
7.0
77
O. Herrera
6.7
↑ 77'
14
J. Garza
6.4
↑ 89'
30
D. Sánchez
6.5
↑ 69'
17
R. Aguirre
6.3
↑ 77'
22
L. García
7.7
19
S. Simón
6.5
↑ 71'
4
Bruno Méndez
6.5
6
F. Pereira
7.0
20
J. Gallardo
6.8
5
F. Romero
6.5
16
F. Viñas
7.4
↑ 46'
29
J. Díaz
6.9
↑ 71'
15
P. Pérez
↑ 90'
10
J. R. Angulo
6.9
↑ 70'
26
Paulinho
6.8
Substitutes
25GC. Rodríguez
15DA. Franco↓ 69'6.2
184DI. Aceves
11MJ. Brunetta↓ 89'9.9
9ME. Gómez↓ 69'7.5
16MD. Lainez↓ 77'7.1
21MR. Monreal
34MH. S. Koifman
6MJ. Vigón
22FG. Martínez↓ 77'6.9
Coach: Victor Vucetich
Substitutes
1GH. Gonzalez
17DB. García↓ 71'6.7
25DE. López
2DD. Barbosa
13DLuan
35MÉ. Gutiérrez↓ 46'6.6
8MN. Castro↓ 90'6.6
9MA. Vega↓ 70'6.4
11MHelinho↓ 71'6.3
24MF. Arce Jr.
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
Top stats
30%Possession70%
1.72Expected goals (xG)1.18
20Total shots17
13Shots on target8
2Big chances2
5Corners6
Shots
5Shots off target4
2Blocked shots5
12Shots inside box9
8Shots outside box8
1Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed1
-0.04Goals prevented-0.51
Attack
24Touches in box31
48Final third entries62
1Offsides2
20Free kicks13
4Fouled in final third0
Passing
226Passes538
154Accurate passes448
14/52 (27%)Long balls19/41 (46%)
2/10 (20%)Crosses3/19 (16%)
17Throw-ins25
Duels
56Duels44
51/94 (54%)Ground duels43/94 (46%)
15/23 (65%)Aerial duels8/23 (35%)
7/22 (32%)Dribbles9/24 (38%)
6Dispossessed10
Defending
25Tackles21
76Tackles won57
12Interceptions8
45Clearances18
55Recoveries60
Discipline
13Fouls20
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
6Saves10
0Big saves1
7Goal kicks5
0Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 56% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.42 @ 1xBet
1X2Toluca to win 40% · 2.60 @ Bet365
BTTSBoth teams to score 59% · 3.00 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 55% · 3.84 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.91 @ 1xBet
1X2Draw 27% · 2.60 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 67% · 1.45 @ Pinnacle
Who winsTigres to win (DNB) 51% · 2.10 @ Betano
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.64 @ Pinnacle
1X2Tigres to win 33% · 3.12 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.84
Tigres UANL
3.44
Draw
2.28
CD Toluca
Double Chanceconsensus
1.56
Tigres UANL or Draw
1.27
Tigres UANL or CD Toluca
1.37
Draw or CD Toluca
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.55
Yes
2.30
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
5.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
4.40
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
12.40
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.20
Over 1.50
4.33
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.69
Over 2.50
2.10
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.62
Over 3.50
1.42
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.34
Over 4.50
1.14
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.05
Tigres UANL
1.67
CD Toluca
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.21
Over 7.50
3.70
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.42
Over 8.50
2.60
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.75
Over 9.50
2.00
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.21
Over 10.50
1.60
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.90
Over 11.50
1.33
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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