Mito Hollyhock 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Mito Hollyhock 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

89'

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Corner, Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

89'

R. Noguchi

Attempt blocked. R. Noguchi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

86'

T. Semba

Attempt missed. T. Semba (Mito Hollyhock), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

86'

H. Araki

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: R. Noguchi comes on for H. Araki.

83'

D. Suga

Goal! Mito Hollyhock 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. D. Suga (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) scores, assisted by K. Yengi.

81'

S. Yamashita

Yellow card for S. Yamashita (Mito Hollyhock) for foul.

79'

K. Tada

Attempt blocked. K. Tada (Mito Hollyhock), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

77'

A. Naoto

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: S. Koshimichi comes on for A. Naoto.

77'

H. Shunki

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: D. Suga comes on for H. Shunki.

75'

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Corner, Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

75'

K. Yengi

Attempt saved. K. Yengi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

69'

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Corner, Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

65'

Y. Nakajima

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: T. Matsumoto comes on for Y. Nakajima.

65'

S. Ayukawa

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: T. Asano comes on for S. Ayukawa.

65'

K. Taniguchi

Substitution, Mito Hollyhock: S. Yamashita comes on for K. Taniguchi.

65'

J. Okumura

Substitution, Mito Hollyhock: H. Yamamoto comes on for J. Okumura.

62'

H. Araki

Attempt missed. H. Araki (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

62'

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Corner, Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

60'

K. Yengi

Attempt blocked. K. Yengi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), header. xG 0.06.

59'

A. Naoto

Attempt missed. A. Naoto (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

56'

K. Yengi

Attempt missed. K. Yengi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), header. xG 0.05.

54'

S. Nakano

Goal! Mito Hollyhock 0-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. S. Nakano (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) scores, assisted by A. Naoto.

52'

S. Ayukawa

Attempt saved. S. Ayukawa (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), header. xG 0.06.

48'

C. Kato

Attempt missed. C. Kato (Mito Hollyhock), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

46'

M. Nishihara

Substitution, Mito Hollyhock: C. Kato comes on for M. Nishihara.

46'

S. Kobayashi

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: K. Yengi comes on for S. Kobayashi.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Mito Hollyhock 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

45+6'

S. Ayukawa

Attempt saved. S. Ayukawa (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

45'

5 minutes of added time.

36'

A. Naoto

Attempt blocked. A. Naoto (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

30'

A. Suzuki

Goal! Mito Hollyhock 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. A. Suzuki (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) scores, assisted by S. Nakano.

27'

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Offside, Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

25'

A. Naoto

Attempt missed. A. Naoto (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.10.

25'

P. Ferreira

Substitution, Mito Hollyhock: K. Tada comes on for P. Ferreira.

21'

T. Mase

Red card! T. Mase (Mito Hollyhock) is sent off for professional foul last man.

20'

S. Ayukawa

Attempt missed. S. Ayukawa (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot. xG 0.15.

16'

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Offside, Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

12'

H. Shunki

Attempt saved. H. Shunki (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), header from a throw-in. xG 0.03.

11'

A. Suzuki

Attempt blocked. A. Suzuki (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

6'

Y. Kimoto

Substitution, Mito Hollyhock: R. Ieizumi comes on for Y. Kimoto.

3'

S. Kobayashi

Attempt blocked. S. Kobayashi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

3'

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Corner, Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

2'

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Corner, Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

1'

Kick-off: Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Where the money is

95766 EUR matched · captured 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 22711 EUR · live

Away 1.01 · implied 99.0%

92.0%

-7.0 vs price

Home 910.0 · implied 0.1%

4.5%

+4.3 vs price

Draw 250.0 · implied 0.4%

3.6%

+3.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 25423 EUR · live

Over 2.62 · implied 38.2%

53.7%

+15.5 vs price

Under 1.62 · implied 61.7%

46.3%

-15.4 vs price

3 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

6' 🔁 R. Ieizumi ◂ Y. Kimoto

21' T. Mase · Professional foul last man

25' 🔁 K. Tada ◂ P. Ferreira

30' ⚽ A. Suzuki · assist S. Nakano0–1

Half-time · 0–1

46' 🔁 K. Yengi ◂ S. Kobayashi

46' 🔁 C. Kato ◂ M. Nishihara

54' ⚽ S. Nakano · assist A. Naoto0–2

65' 🔁 H. Yamamoto ◂ J. Okumura

65' 🔁 S. Yamashita ◂ K. Taniguchi

65' 🔁 T. Asano ◂ S. Ayukawa

65' 🔁 T. Matsumoto ◂ Y. Nakajima

77' 🔁 D. Suga ◂ H. Shunki

77' 🔁 S. Koshimichi ◂ A. Naoto

81' S. Yamashita · Foul

83' ⚽ D. Suga · assist K. Yengi0–3

86' 🔁 R. Noguchi ◂ H. Araki

Full-time · 0–3

Coaches

Naoki Mori

Bartosch Gaul

Recent form

Mito Hollyhock

LAFC Tokyo0-6

LAFagiano Okayama0-2

LHUrawa Red Diamonds0-1

LHShimizu S-Pulse1-2

LAYokohama F. Marinos0-2

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

WHShimizu S-Pulse4-0

LAV-Varen Nagasaki0-4

WHKyoto Sanga FC3-0

WATokyo Verdy2-0

WHIwaki FC4-0

About this match

**Hiroshima rolls into Mito looking absolutely sharp, and Hollyhock are in full free-fall** — this is basically a mismatch on paper. 🔴

Sanfrecce are **4W-1L** over their last five with back-to-back clean sheets and a +9 goal difference. Mito, meanwhile, haven't won in five and are getting hammered (conceded six against FC Tokyo, two against Okayama). The defensive leaks are real.

Key storylines:

- **Sanfrecce's attacking trio** of T. Asano, H. Shunki, and Y. Nakajima should feast on a Hollyhock backline missing shape and confidence
- **Mito's midfield balance** between T. Semba and H. Yamamoto will need to press high early, or Hiroshima's possession will bury them
- **K. Osako** in goal has kept two clean sheets recently — expect him barely tested

Expected lineups:

- **Mito Hollyhock**: K. Nishikawa, A. Kawazura, K. Itakura, Y. Kimoto, T. Semba, H. Yamamoto, K. Osaki, C. Kato, K. Taniguchi, A. Watanabe
- **Sanfrecce Hiroshima**: K. Osako, S. Nakano, H. Araki, S. Sasaki, A. Naoto, T. Matsumoto, K. Hayao, Y. Nakajima, H. Shunki, A. Suzuki, T. Asano

Prediction:

**Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 Mito Hollyhock**

Hiroshima's momentum is too much for a reeling side.

Match facts

Stadium

K's Denki Stadium Mito

City

Mito

Referee

Koei Koya

2.61 yellows/match · 36 matches

Kickoff

31 Oct, 05:00 UTC

Competition

J1 League

Highlights & clips

Mito Hollyhock 4-4-1-1 · 3-4-2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

27 J. Słowik 6.2 25 T. Mase 3.3 50 R. Ieizumi 7.0 ↑ 6' 17 K. Itakura 6.5 16 Y. Tamura 5.9 39 H. Yamamoto 7.0 ↑ 65' 19 T. Semba 6.8 3 K. Osaki 6.3 8 C. Kato 6.2 ↑ 46' 53 S. Yamashita 6.4 ↑ 65' 29 K. Tada 6.1 ↑ 25' 1 K. Osako 6.6 15 S. Nakano 9.3 46 R. Noguchi 6.7 ↑ 86' 37 J. S. Kim 8.1 32 S. Koshimichi 6.7 ↑ 77' 6 K. Hayao 7.7 14 T. Matsumoto 6.7 ↑ 65' 18 D. Suga 7.4 ↑ 77' 9 K. Yengi 6.9 ↑ 46' 10 A. Suzuki 8.5 29 T. Asano 6.8 ↑ 65'

Substitutes

34GK. Nishikawa 15DY. Kimoto↓ 6' 44MM. Nishihara↓ 46'6.5 22MK. Taniguchi↓ 65'6.5 30MJ. Okumura↓ 65'6.4 38MH. Leonardo 20MY. Funabashi 33FP. Ferreira↓ 25'6.0 9FR. Nemoto

Coach: Naoki Mori

Substitutes

21GY. Tanaka 99GI. Ouchi 4DH. Araki↓ 86'7.7 35MY. Nakajima↓ 65'7.5 7MH. Shunki↓ 77'7.1 5MA. Naoto↓ 77'6.9 45MS. Kobayashi↓ 46'6.4 23FS. Ayukawa↓ 65'6.6 50FN. Takahashi

Coach: Bartosch Gaul

Top stats

23%Possession77%

0.01Expected goals (xG)1.35

3Total shots17

0Shots on target7

0Big chances1

0Corners7

Shots

2Shots off target5

1Blocked shots5

0Shots inside box12

3Shots outside box5

0Big chances scored1

Attack

2Touches in box28

50Final third entries103

0Offsides3

6Free kicks6

1Fouled in final third4

Passing

265Passes883

187Accurate passes794

17/55 (31%)Long balls20/49 (41%)

0/5 (0%)Crosses9/25 (36%)

17Throw-ins19

Duels

38Duels62

19/48 (40%)Ground duels29/48 (60%)

11/31 (35%)Aerial duels20/31 (65%)

1/14 (7%)Dribbles1/10 (10%)

9Dispossessed3

Defending

12Tackles22

50Tackles won77

12Interceptions6

31Clearances23

59Recoveries59

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Yellow cards0

1Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

7Goal kicks6

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers

Mito 13%

19%

Sanfrecce 68%

Who winsSanfrecce to win (DNB) 84% · 1.16 @ Unibet

1X2Sanfrecce to win 68% · 1.75 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 59% · 3.80 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 80% · 1.91 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 67% · 1.55 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.75 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 56% · 1.60 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBoth teams to score 51% · 3.50 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 19% · 2.98 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 61% · 1.51 @ Pinnacle

1X2Mito to win 13% · 6.25 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

7.50

Mito Hollyhock

4.85

Draw

1.37

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Double Chanceconsensus

2.94

Mito Hollyhock or Draw

1.16

Mito Hollyhock or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.09

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.86

Yes

1.87

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

13.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

2.38

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.03

Over 0.50

13.30

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.19

Over 1.50

4.53

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.61

Over 2.50

2.30

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.57

Over 3.50

1.50

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.88

Over 4.50

1.17

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

5.50

Mito Hollyhock

1.12

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.34

Over 7.50

2.90

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.60

Over 8.50

2.23

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.01

Over 9.50

1.73

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.42

Over 10.50

1.50

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.40

Over 11.50

1.25

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win or draw

✓

87% confidence

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to avoid defeat

✓

84% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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