Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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Arnar Bergmann Gunnlaugsson
Iceland
Estonia**Iceland's been struggling badly, but home turf and Estonia's defensive inconsistency could flip the script.** This is a classic "bounce-back spot" scenario for the hosts. 🏴
Iceland are winless in five but unbeaten at home in the H2H—that counts for something. Estonia just got humiliated 4-1 by Norway, so defensive solidity is clearly up for grabs.
Key storylines:
- **Iceland** need a W after three straight defeats; home advantage in Reykjavik should shift momentum slightly
- **M. Käit** and **M. Poom** anchor Estonia's midfield, but their back line looked shaky against Norway
- **A. Guðjohnsen** and **H. Haraldsson** will carry Iceland's attacking load with several key players missing
Expected lineups:
- **Iceland**: E. Ólafsson, L. Tómasson, V. Pálsson, S. Ingason, D. D. Þórhallsson, M. Ellertsson, Í. B. Jóhannesson, J. Guðmundsson, H. Haraldsson, A. Guðmundsson, A. Guðjohnsen
- **Estonia**: K. Hein, M. Schjonning-Larsen, M. Paskotsi, M. Kuusk, R. Peetson, M. Käit, M. Poom, I. Yakovlev, R. Shein, A. Tamm, R. Sappinen
Prediction:
**Iceland 2-1 Estonia**
Home edge + Estonia's defensive fragility gives Iceland the slight lean here. 🇮🇸
Iceland
4-4-2 · 5-3-2
Estonia
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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