Sweden 3-1 Poland: Stats, xG & Lineups – Sep 28, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Sweden 3-1 Poland.

90+2'

R. Lewandowski

Yellow card for R. Lewandowski (Poland) for argument.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

89'

Y. Ayari

Substitution, Sweden: W. Swedberg comes on for Y. Ayari.

89'

V. Gyökeres

Substitution, Sweden: J. Karlström comes on for V. Gyökeres.

88'

A. Bernhardsson

Attempt missed. A. Bernhardsson (Sweden), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

88'

P. Wiśniewski

Substitution, Poland: R. Lewandowski comes on for P. Wiśniewski.

84'

Sweden

Corner, Sweden.

84'

J. Kiwior

Attempt saved. J. Kiwior (Poland), header from a corner. xG 0.01.

84'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

83'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

80'

B. Nygren

Substitution, Sweden: H. Larsson comes on for B. Nygren.

80'

P. Wålemark

Substitution, Sweden: A. Bernhardsson comes on for P. Wålemark.

76'

P. Zieliński

Substitution, Poland: K. Urbański comes on for P. Zieliński.

76'

S. Szymański

Substitution, Poland: K. Świderski comes on for S. Szymański.

76'

M. Cash

Substitution, Poland: M. Skóraś comes on for M. Cash.

75'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

75'

M. Cash

Attempt blocked. M. Cash (Poland), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.03.

72'

V. Gyökeres

Goal! Sweden 3-1 Poland. V. Gyökeres (Sweden) scores, assisted by P. Wålemark.

69'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

69'

P. Zieliński

Attempt missed. P. Zieliński (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

65'

T. Puchacz

Substitution, Poland: P. Frankowski comes on for T. Puchacz.

63'

Sweden

Corner, Sweden.

63'

B. Zeneli

Substitution, Sweden: S. Nanasi comes on for B. Zeneli.

63'

Y. Ayari

Goal! Sweden 2-1 Poland. Y. Ayari (Sweden) scores, assisted by S. Nanasi.

62'

Sweden

Corner, Sweden.

62'

G. Gudmundsson

Attempt missed. G. Gudmundsson (Sweden), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

62'

V. Gyökeres

Attempt missed. V. Gyökeres (Sweden), right-footed shot. xG 0.29.

58'

P. Zieliński

Yellow card for P. Zieliński (Poland) for foul.

56'

M. Cash

Attempt missed. M. Cash (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

54'

Sweden

Corner, Sweden.

54'

Y. Ayari

Attempt saved. Y. Ayari (Sweden), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

52'

P. Zieliński

Attempt missed. P. Zieliński (Poland), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Sweden 1-1 Poland.

45+3'

M. Cash

Attempt blocked. M. Cash (Poland), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

43'

S. Szymański

Goal! Sweden 1-1 Poland. S. Szymański (Poland) scores, assisted by N. Zalewski.

39'

W. Nowak

Attempt missed. W. Nowak (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

38'

M. Żukowski

Attempt saved. M. Żukowski (Poland), header. xG 0.05.

37'

M. Cash

Attempt saved. M. Cash (Poland), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

37'

S. Szymański

Attempt blocked. S. Szymański (Poland), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

35'

T. Puchacz

Yellow card for T. Puchacz (Poland) for foul.

34'

P. Zieliński

Attempt blocked. P. Zieliński (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

32'

W. Nowak

Attempt blocked. W. Nowak (Poland), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.05.

32'

P. Zieliński

Attempt missed. P. Zieliński (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

29'

P. Wiśniewski

Attempt missed. P. Wiśniewski (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

23'

B. Zeneli

Attempt missed. B. Zeneli (Sweden), header. xG 0.13.

19'

D. Svensson

Yellow card for D. Svensson (Sweden) for foul.

19'

P. Wålemark

Attempt saved. P. Wålemark (Sweden), right-footed shot. xG 0.22.

18'

S. Szymański

Attempt saved. S. Szymański (Poland), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

15'

P. Zieliński

Attempt saved. P. Zieliński (Poland), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.

8'

B. Nygren

Goal! Sweden 1-0 Poland. B. Nygren (Sweden) scores, assisted by V. Lindelöf.

8'

V. Lindelöf

Attempt missed. V. Lindelöf (Sweden), header from a corner. xG 0.08.

8'

Sweden

Corner, Sweden.

5'

P. Wålemark

Attempt saved. P. Wålemark (Sweden), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

5'

D. Svensson

Attempt blocked. D. Svensson (Sweden), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

4'

P. Zieliński

Attempt saved. P. Zieliński (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

1'

Kick-off: Sweden vs Poland.

Where the money is

1668140 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 872606 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

82.2%

-16.8 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

10.1%

+10.0 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

7.7%

+7.6 vs price

Half time 7142 EUR · live

Home 1.15 · implied 87.0%

77.1%

-9.9 vs price

Draw 8.2 · implied 12.2%

14.9%

+2.7 vs price

Away 100.0 · implied 1.0%

8.0%

+7.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 265764 EUR · live

Over 1.5 · implied 66.7%

88.3%

+21.6 vs price

Under 2.98 · implied 33.6%

11.7%

-21.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 13596 EUR · live

Under 1.02 · implied 98.0%

71.0%

-27.0 vs price

Over 38.0 · implied 2.6%

29.0%

+26.3 vs price

18 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

8' ⚽ B. Nygren · assist V. Lindelöf1–0

19' D. Svensson · Foul

35' T. Puchacz · Foul

43' ⚽ S. Szymański · assist N. Zalewski1–1

Half-time · 1–1

58' P. Zieliński · Foul

63' ⚽ Y. Ayari · assist S. Nanasi2–1

63' 🔁 S. Nanasi ◂ B. Zeneli

65' 🔁 P. Frankowski ◂ T. Puchacz

72' ⚽ V. Gyökeres · assist P. Wålemark3–1

76' 🔁 M. Skóraś ◂ M. Cash

76' 🔁 K. Świderski ◂ S. Szymański

76' 🔁 K. Urbański ◂ P. Zieliński

80' 🔁 A. Bernhardsson ◂ P. Wålemark

80' 🔁 H. Larsson ◂ B. Nygren

88' 🔁 R. Lewandowski ◂ P. Wiśniewski

89' 🔁 J. Karlström ◂ V. Gyökeres

89' 🔁 W. Swedberg ◂ Y. Ayari

Full-time · 3–1

90'⁺² R. Lewandowski · Argument

Coaches

Graham Potter

Jan Urban

Recent form

Sweden

WHRomania2-1

LAFrance0-3

DAJapan1-1

LANetherlands1-5

WHTunisia5-1

Poland

DHBosnia & Herzegovina0-0

DHNigeria2-2

LHUkraine0-2

LASweden2-3

WHAlbania2-1

About this match

**Sweden and Poland are locked in a dead heat — expect no quarter in this Nations League scrap.** The hosts have found their rhythm at home (2-1 over Romania), but **Sweden's soft defensive record** and Poland's knack for grinding out results make this a coin flip. 🔥

Sweden's form has been streaky — a thumping from France exposed cracks, yet they've bounced back. Poland, meanwhile, have drawn twice recently and look **more compact but less clinical**, missing attacking support.

Key storylines:

- **V. Gyökeres and A. Isak** will carry Sweden's attacking load with both wingers and midfielders supporting; Poland's back three needs to handle the width
- **R. Lewandowski** leads Poland's counter-threat, but **M. Zieliński and S. Szymański** in midfield are crucial to breaking Sweden's press
- Injuries bite both sides — Sweden lose pace and defensive cover; Poland lose depth up front and in goal

Expected lineups:

- **Sweden**: K. Nordfeldt, G. Gudmundsson, V. Lindelöf, C. Starfelt, E. Holm, D. Svensson, Y. Ayari, M. Svanberg, H. Johansson, V. Gyökeres, A. Isak
- **Poland**: Ł. Skorupski, J. Kiwior, J. Bednarek, P. Wiśniewski, N. Zalewski, M. Cash, P. Zieliński, S. Szymański, O. Pietuszewski, R. Lewandowski, M. Skóraś

Prediction:

**Sweden 1–1 Poland** — edge to the home side's creativity, but Poland's shape holds firm. 🤝

Where to watch

DStv NowSuperSport GOtv LaLigaSuperSport LaLiga

Match facts

Stadium

Strawberry Arena

City

Solna

Referee

Javier Alberola Rojas

3.90 yellows/match · 52 matches

Kickoff

28 Sep, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Sweden 4-4-2 · 3-4-3 Poland

12 V. Johansson 7.8 8 D. Svensson 7.0 15 C. Starfelt 7.0 3 V. Lindelöf 8.1 5 G. Gudmundsson 6.4 20 H. Larsson 6.4 ↑ 80' 7 L. Bergvall 7.0 16 J. Karlström ↑ 89' 19 S. Nanasi 6.8 ↑ 63' 21 A. Bernhardsson 6.5 ↑ 80' 13 W. Swedberg ↑ 89' 1 M. Bułka 6.3 9 R. Lewandowski ↑ 88' 5 J. Bednarek 6.8 14 J. Kiwior 6.5 8 K. Urbański 6.8 ↑ 76' 16 W. Nowak 7.0 17 M. Skóraś 6.6 ↑ 76' 19 P. Frankowski 6.6 ↑ 65' 11 K. Świderski 6.4 ↑ 76' 13 M. Żukowski 6.4 21 N. Zalewski 8.5

Top stats

53%Possession47%

2.15Expected goals (xG)0.91

12Total shots18

6Shots on target7

4Big chances1

4Corners4

Shots

5Shots off target6

1Blocked shots5

9Shots inside box9

3Shots outside box9

0Hit woodwork1

2Big chances scored1

2Big chances missed0

0.57Goals prevented-0.09

Attack

23Touches in box32

60Final third entries58

0Offsides1

9Free kicks8

2Fouled in final third2

Passing

520Passes459

450Accurate passes413

19/45 (42%)Long balls15/25 (60%)

3/14 (21%)Crosses4/23 (17%)

15Throw-ins13

Duels

48Duels52

26/55 (47%)Ground duels29/55 (53%)

12/25 (48%)Aerial duels13/25 (52%)

8/21 (38%)Dribbles5/7 (71%)

3Dispossessed7

Defending

9Tackles16

44Tackles won56

3Interceptions11

33Clearances27

40Recoveries36

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

0Big saves2

9Goal kicks6

2Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Sweden 44%

26%

Poland 29%

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 76% · 1.38 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 8.5 corners 53% · 2.15 @ betfair

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 65% · 1.71 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBoth teams to score 59% · 2.80 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 3.80 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.91 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 26% · 2.75 @ Bet365

1X2Sweden to win 44% · 2.31 @ 1xBet

1X2Poland to win 29% · 3.60 @ William Hill

Who winsSweden to win (DNB) 54% · 1.57 @ Betsson

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 67% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.00

Sweden

3.65

Draw

3.50

Poland

Double Chanceconsensus

1.27

Sweden or Draw

1.25

Sweden or Poland

1.81

Draw or Poland

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.55

Yes

2.31

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.90

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

7.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

12.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.18

Over 1.50

4.50

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.65

Over 2.50

2.21

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.55

Over 3.50

1.45

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.12

Over 4.50

1.14

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.45

Sweden

2.60

Poland

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.32

Over 7.50

2.92

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.62

Over 8.50

2.13

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.05

Over 9.50

1.67

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.68

Over 10.50

1.37

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.58

Over 11.50

1.21

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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