Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia: Stats, xG & Lineups – Sep 29, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

89'

P. Kristal

Yellow card for P. Kristal (Estonia) for argument.

89'

K. Dimitrov

Yellow card for K. Dimitrov (Bulgaria) for argument.

86'

Estonia

Corner, Estonia.

84'

Estonia

Offside, Estonia.

83'

L. Petkov

Attempt missed. L. Petkov (Bulgaria), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

82'

M. Paskotsi

Attempt saved. M. Paskotsi (Estonia), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

75'

P. Kristal

Attempt blocked. P. Kristal (Estonia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

74'

R. Saarma

Substitution, Estonia: F. Liivak comes on for R. Saarma.

73'

P. Kristal

Attempt missed. P. Kristal (Estonia), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.07.

73'

I. Turitsov

Substitution, Bulgaria: Y. Stoyanov comes on for I. Turitsov.

71'

I. Gruev

Attempt blocked. I. Gruev (Bulgaria), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

71'

P. Panayotov

Attempt saved. P. Panayotov (Bulgaria), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

70'

S. Velkov

Attempt blocked. S. Velkov (Bulgaria), right-footed shot. xG 0.23.

70'

K. Balov

Attempt missed. K. Balov (Bulgaria), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.09.

70'

M. Petkov

Substitution, Bulgaria: S. Ivanov comes on for M. Petkov.

69'

I. Gruev

Attempt saved. I. Gruev (Bulgaria), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

69'

Bulgaria

Corner, Bulgaria.

65'

Estonia

Offside, Estonia.

62'

D. Velkovski

Attempt blocked. D. Velkovski (Bulgaria), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

62'

K. Dimitrov

Attempt blocked. K. Dimitrov (Bulgaria), header from a corner. xG 0.18.

62'

Bulgaria

Corner, Bulgaria.

60'

Bulgaria

Corner, Bulgaria.

58'

M. Käit

Substitution, Estonia: M. Miller comes on for M. Käit.

58'

M. Soomets

Substitution, Estonia: K. Palumets comes on for M. Soomets.

57'

M. Männilaan

Cleared off the line! M. Männilaan (Estonia), right-footed shot. xG 0.13.

55'

Bulgaria

Corner, Bulgaria.

55'

P. Panayotov

Attempt blocked. P. Panayotov (Bulgaria), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.08.

55'

S. Velkov

Attempt blocked. S. Velkov (Bulgaria), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

55'

Bulgaria

Corner, Bulgaria.

50'

M. Petkov

Attempt missed. M. Petkov (Bulgaria), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.07.

49'

Bulgaria

Corner, Bulgaria.

49'

I. Gruev

Attempt blocked. I. Gruev (Bulgaria), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

48'

M. Paskotsi

Yellow card for M. Paskotsi (Estonia) for foul.

46'

I. Turitsov

Attempt blocked. I. Turitsov (Bulgaria), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

46'

K. Mustmaa

Substitution, Estonia: M. Männilaan comes on for K. Mustmaa.

46'

B. Tsonev

Substitution, Bulgaria: A. Chandarov comes on for B. Tsonev.

46'

Z. Dimitrov

Substitution, Bulgaria: K. Balov comes on for Z. Dimitrov.

46'

K. Stoyanov

Substitution, Bulgaria: P. Panayotov comes on for K. Stoyanov.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia.

39'

M. Schjonning-Larsen

Attempt blocked. M. Schjonning-Larsen (Estonia), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

39'

Estonia

Corner, Estonia.

38'

M. Petkov

Attempt missed. M. Petkov (Bulgaria), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

37'

B. Tsonev

Yellow card for B. Tsonev (Bulgaria) for foul.

36'

B. Tsonev

Attempt blocked. B. Tsonev (Bulgaria), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

33'

Estonia

Offside, Estonia.

28'

M. Poom

Off the woodwork! M. Poom (Estonia), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.08.

25'

Estonia

Corner, Estonia.

18'

Bulgaria

Corner, Bulgaria.

17'

Z. Dimitrov

Attempt missed. Z. Dimitrov (Bulgaria), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

15'

L. Petkov

Attempt missed. L. Petkov (Bulgaria), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

10'

Estonia

Corner, Estonia.

9'

D. Velkovski

Yellow card for D. Velkovski (Bulgaria) for foul.

7'

Estonia

Corner, Estonia.

1'

Kick-off: Bulgaria vs Estonia.

Where the money is

882139 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 2 weeks ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 521559 EUR · live

Draw 1.05 · implied 95.2%

45.6%

-49.6 vs price

Home 21.0 · implied 4.8%

45.3%

+40.6 vs price

Away 150.0 · implied 0.7%

9.0%

+8.4 vs price

Half time 3163 EUR · live

Draw 1.17 · implied 85.5%

47.8%

-37.7 vs price

Home 7.6 · implied 13.2%

37.7%

+24.5 vs price

Away 8.8 · implied 11.4%

14.5%

+3.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 59448 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

87.1%

-11.9 vs price

Over 150.0 · implied 0.7%

12.9%

+12.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 2027 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

89.7%

-9.3 vs price

Over 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

10.2%

+10.1 vs price

12 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

9' D. Velkovski · Foul

37' B. Tsonev · Foul

Half-time · 0–0

46' 🔁 P. Panayotov ◂ K. Stoyanov

46' 🔁 K. Balov ◂ Z. Dimitrov

46' 🔁 A. Chandarov ◂ B. Tsonev

46' 🔁 M. Männilaan ◂ K. Mustmaa

48' M. Paskotsi · Foul

58' 🔁 K. Palumets ◂ M. Soomets

58' 🔁 M. Miller ◂ M. Käit

70' 🔁 S. Ivanov ◂ M. Petkov

73' 🔁 Y. Stoyanov ◂ I. Turitsov

74' 🔁 F. Liivak ◂ R. Saarma

89' K. Dimitrov · Argument

89' P. Kristal · Argument

Full-time · 0–0

Coaches

Aleksandar Dimitrov

Jurgen Henn

Recent form

Bulgaria

LHLuxembourg1-2

DAMoldova2-2

LHMontenegro0-1

WHGeorgia2-1

LATürkiye0-2

Estonia

DAIceland1-1

WACyprus4-2

LANorway1-4

DHMoldova1-1

LHItaly1-3

About this match

**Bulgaria's looking to snap a nasty slump, but Estonia's got a knack for scrappy results** — this Nations League scrap could easily be a 1-1 stalemate. 🇧🇬

Bulgaria have dropped their last three and need a win badly, while Estonia tend to grind out draws and the occasional surprise blowout. The xG fairy-tale of Estonia's **4-2 thumping of Cyprus** is exactly the kind of volatility that makes this fixture a coin flip.

Key storylines:

- **Bulgaria's backline** (D. Mitov, K. Dimitrov, E. Tsenov, D. Velkovski) has been leaky; keeping clean sheets is the priority
- **I. Gruev** and the midfield need to control tempo and cut off Estonia's transitions early
- Estonia's **K. Hein** in goal will be tested by Bulgaria's attacking intent, but the visitors aren't afraid to sit deep

Expected lineups:

- **Bulgaria**: D. Mitov, K. Dimitrov, E. Tsenov, D. Velkovski, I. Turitsov, I. Gruev, Z. Dimitrov, M. Petkov, M. Minchev
- **Estonia**: K. Hein, M. Paskotsi, M. Kuusk, M. Schjonning-Larsen, K. Mets, M. Käit, K. Palumets, A. Tamm, R. Peetson

Prediction:

**Bulgaria 1–1 Estonia**. Both teams are streaky enough to dodge defeat but hungry enough not to roll over.

Where to watch

DStv Now

Match facts

Stadium

Hristo Botev Stadium

City

Plovdiv

Referee

Goga Kikacheishvili

3.87 yellows/match · 15 matches

Kickoff

29 Sep, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Bulgaria 4-2-3-1 · 5-3-2 Estonia

1 D. Naumov 7.1 2 Y. Stoyanov 7.0 ↑ 73' 5 K. Dimitrov 8.3 13 S. Velkov 7.1 21 D. Velkovski 7.6 4 I. Gruev 7.3 11 P. Panayotov 6.8 ↑ 46' 9 S. Ivanov 6.2 ↑ 70' 14 A. Chandarov 6.6 ↑ 46' 18 K. Balov 6.9 ↑ 46' 20 L. Petkov 6.5 1 K. Hein 7.6 23 F. Liivak 6.6 ↑ 74' 3 M. Paskotsi 7.1 5 E. Tougjas 6.6 18 K. Mets 7.1 19 M. Schjonning-Larsen 6.9 10 K. Palumets 6.3 ↑ 58' 20 M. Poom 6.5 17 M. Miller 6.7 ↑ 58' 21 M. Männilaan 6.8 ↑ 46' 14 P. Kristal 6.5

Substitutes

12GD. Mitov 23GA. Bozhev 19DI. Turitsov↓ 73'7.1 3DA. Hristov 6DE. Tsenov 15DH. Petrov 16MM. Petkov↓ 70'7.4 7MB. Tsonev↓ 46'6.9 22MK. Stoyanov↓ 46'6.7 10MZ. Dimitrov↓ 46'6.7 8MA. Kraev 17MM. Minchev

Coach: Aleksandar Dimitrov

Substitutes

12GM. Igonen 22GK. Vallner 2DM. Kuusk 13DJ. Saliste 16DJ. Tamm 7MR. Saarma↓ 74'7.5 4MM. Käit↓ 58'6.8 8MM. Soomets↓ 58'6.7 6MR. Peetson 11MM. Ainsalu 15MM. Skvortsov 9FK. Mustmaa↓ 46'6.1

Coach: Jurgen Henn

Top stats

55%Possession45%

0.97Expected goals (xG)0.42

17Total shots6

2Shots on target2

0Big chances1

6Corners6

Shots

6Shots off target2

9Blocked shots2

7Shots inside box1

10Shots outside box5

0Hit woodwork1

0Big chances missed1

0.05Goals prevented0.79

Attack

24Touches in box6

45Final third entries48

0Offsides3

26Free kicks9

5Fouled in final third3

Passing

452Passes359

358Accurate passes276

21/51 (41%)Long balls26/55 (47%)

3/18 (17%)Crosses1/21 (5%)

29Throw-ins24

Duels

64Duels36

48/78 (62%)Ground duels30/78 (38%)

20/28 (71%)Aerial duels8/28 (29%)

5/14 (36%)Dribbles5/11 (45%)

7Dispossessed12

Defending

18Tackles16

56Tackles won69

11Interceptions7

27Clearances26

53Recoveries60

Discipline

9Fouls26

3Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0Big saves1

4Goal kicks8

1Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Bulgaria 55%

27%

Estonia 18%

Who winsEstonia to win (DNB) 60% · 3.75 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 59% · 1.11 @ William Hill

1X2Bulgaria to win 55% · 2.15 @ William Hill

BTTSBTTS: No 55% · 1.18 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 77% · 1.21 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 69% · 1.38 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 57% · 1.68 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 27% · 2.38 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 55% · 1.69 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 67% · 2.50 @ 1xBet

1X2Estonia to win 18% · 5.50 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.73

Bulgaria

3.48

Draw

5.08

Estonia

Double Chanceconsensus

1.17

Bulgaria or Draw

1.25

Bulgaria or Estonia

2.05

Draw or Estonia

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

2.10

Yes

1.65

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

7.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.06

Over 0.50

8.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.41

Over 1.50

2.77

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.35

Over 2.50

1.57

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.47

Over 3.50

1.19

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

9.10

Over 4.50

1.04

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.28

Bulgaria

3.40

Estonia

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.34

Over 7.50

2.73

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.66

Over 8.50

2.10

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.09

Over 9.50

1.67

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.58

Over 10.50

1.38

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.27

Over 11.50

1.20

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Bulgaria to win or draw

✓

82% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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