Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Estonia's home fortress meets a Luxembourg side hunting wins** — the hosts have been solid at the A. Le Coq Arena, while the visitors have picked up three wins in their last five but just got hammered 3-0 by Iceland. 🏟️
Estonia are drawing machines (3D in last 5), but they've also got some bite — that 4-2 shellacking of Cyprus shows they can score when it clicks. Luxembourg's form is choppy: they're clinical on the road but fragile at home, and they'll need to be sharp here.
Key storylines:
- **Estonia's home record** vs Luxembourg's recent road success — the hosts unbeaten domestically but vulnerable to quick counters
- **K. Hein and A. Moris** in a potentially tight midfield battle; set pieces could decide this
- **R. Sappinen and O. Thill** leading the attacking hunt for their respective sides
Expected lineups:
- **Estonia**: K. Hein, M. Schjonning-Larsen, M. Paskotsi, M. Kuusk, F. Liivak, M. Käit, M. Poom, R. Saarma, P. Kristal, K. Mustmaa, R. Sappinen
- **Luxembourg**: A. Moris, D. Carlson, S. Korać, E. Mahmutović, F. Bohnert, V. Thill, A. Dardari, L. Barreiro, M. Olesen, T. d. S. Moreira, O. Thill
Prediction:
**Estonia 2–1 Luxembourg.** The hosts' home advantage and recent beating of Cyprus gives them the edge in Tallinn. 🎯
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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