Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Greece are the form team here — they've won the last meetup and sit 2W-2D in five, while Germany are wobbling with just one win in five and a raft of injury problems.** 🔥
The narrative writes itself: the Greeks stunned Germany at the Allianz earlier this month, and now they get the same opponent at home in Thessaloniki. Germany's missing Musiala, Havertz, and Goretzka — three huge creative pieces — which leaves them light on attacking flair when they need answers most.
Key storylines:
- **Greece's home fortress** — they've rattled off a 2-1 away win over Serbia and a 1-0 shocker in Munich; backing themselves at the Toumba is a different beast entirely
- **Germany's injury carnage** — Musiala, Havertz, Goretzka, and Ouédraogo all out; F. Wirtz and D. Undav carry the creative load, but it's a stretched deck
- **V. Pavlidis and the Greeks' counter threat** — with K. Tzolis buzzing in midfield, Greece can exploit space on the break
Expected lineups:
- **Greece**: K. Tzolakis, K. Tsimikas, P. Retsos, K. Mavropanos, G. Vagiannidis, D. Kourbelis, C. Zafeiris, C. Tzolis, K. Karetsas, G. Masouras, V. Pavlidis
- **Germany**: M. Neuer, N. Brown, J. Tah, A. Rüdiger, L. Karl, J. Kimmich, F. Nmecha, D. Undav, F. Wirtz, L. Sané, N. Woltemade
Prediction:
**Greece 1–1 Germany.** Greece have the edge in form and fitness, but Germany's quality still pokes through — a draw feels right for a wounded side fighting for respect.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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