Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Ireland rolls into this one as the heavy favorite**, and honestly, the stats back it up — three unbeaten in the last H2H, plus a dominant 3-0 win over Israel just weeks ago. 🇮🇪
Israel's form is a concern: one win in five, sandwiched between losses to Austria and that embarrassment at home to Ireland. The hosts here will be desperate for a response, but Ireland's defensive shape and midfield control have been crisp lately.
Key storylines:
- **Ireland's attacking depth** — **C. Ogbene** and **F. Azaz** can hurt Israel on the wings; the visitors have shown they can click in quick transitions
- **Israel's missing pieces** — **I. Toklomati** out with a knee injury weakens an already fragile backline against a sharp Irish press
- **Revenge factor** — Israel won't want another shellacking, but they'll need to be clinical in transition with **D. Turgeman** and **T. Baribo** leading the line
Expected lineups:
- **Ireland**: C. Kelleher, R. Manning, D. O'Shea, L. Scales, J. O'Brien, C. Coventry, J. Molumby, J. Knight, C. Ogbene, T. Parrott, F. Azaz
- **Israel**: D. Peretz, R. Revivo, N. Stoioanov, I. Nachmias, E. Dasa, O. Gloukh, E. Peretz, G. Kanichowsky, A. Khalaili, D. Turgeman, T. Baribo
Prediction:
**Ireland 2-0 Israel**
Ireland have the edge in every metric and should control this comfortably away from home.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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