England 2-1 Croatia: Stats, xG & Lineups – Nov 12, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. England 2-1 Croatia.

90+4'

M. Rogers

Attempt missed. M. Rogers (England), left-footed shot. xG 0.13.

90+2'

L. Vušković

Attempt missed. L. Vušković (Croatia), header from a corner. xG 0.01.

90+2'

A. Budimir

Attempt missed. A. Budimir (Croatia), header from a corner. xG 0.11.

90+1'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

90'

M. Kovačić

Substitution, Croatia: L. Majer comes on for M. Kovačić.

89'

D. Burn

Attempt blocked. D. Burn (England), header from a corner. xG 0.17.

89'

England

Corner, England.

88'

England

Corner, England.

87'

A. Budimir

Attempt blocked. A. Budimir (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

87'

J. Gvardiol

Attempt missed. J. Gvardiol (Croatia), header from a corner. xG 0.20.

87'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

86'

England

Offside, England.

82'

N. Vlašić

Attempt missed. N. Vlašić (Croatia), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

78'

T. Alexander-Arnold

Substitution, England: B. White comes on for T. Alexander-Arnold.

77'

A. Gordon

Substitution, England: R. Ngumoha comes on for A. Gordon.

77'

D. Rice

Substitution, England: J. Garner comes on for D. Rice.

76'

A. Budimir

Attempt saved. A. Budimir (Croatia), header from a set piece. xG 0.04.

76'

I. Smolčić

Substitution, Croatia: M. Pašalić comes on for I. Smolčić.

76'

J. Mišić

Substitution, Croatia: L. Modrić comes on for J. Mišić.

70'

I. Matanović

Substitution, Croatia: A. Budimir comes on for I. Matanović.

70'

P. Sučić

Substitution, Croatia: M. Pašalić comes on for P. Sučić.

69'

P. Sučić

Attempt saved. P. Sučić (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

64'

H. Kane

Goal! England 2-1 Croatia. H. Kane (England) converts the penalty.

63'

I. Smolčić

Yellow card for I. Smolčić (Croatia) for foul.

61'

J. Quansah

VAR: no penalty for England.

61'

England

Corner, England.

59'

P. Sučić

Goal! England 1-1 Croatia. P. Sučić (Croatia) scores.

59'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

58'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

55'

J. Bellingham

Attempt saved. J. Bellingham (England), right-footed shot. xG 0.12.

55'

A. Gordon

Attempt missed. A. Gordon (England), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

54'

Croatia

Offside, Croatia.

51'

England

Corner, England.

51'

H. Kane

Cleared off the line! H. Kane (England), right-footed shot. xG 0.37.

48'

A. Gordon

Attempt missed. A. Gordon (England), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. England 1-0 Croatia.

44'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

42'

M. Baturina

Attempt saved. M. Baturina (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

40'

T. Alexander-Arnold

Attempt missed. T. Alexander-Arnold (England), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

35'

J. Bellingham

Attempt blocked. J. Bellingham (England), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

33'

M. Kovačić

Attempt saved. M. Kovačić (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

30'

D. Burn

Attempt blocked. D. Burn (England), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

29'

England

Corner, England.

29'

L. Hall

Attempt blocked. L. Hall (England), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

27'

D. Burn

Attempt missed. D. Burn (England), shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

24'

M. Rogers

Goal! England 1-0 Croatia. M. Rogers (England) scores, assisted by J. Bellingham.

22'

J. Mišić

Attempt missed. J. Mišić (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

19'

England

Corner, England.

18'

T. Alexander-Arnold

Attempt blocked. T. Alexander-Arnold (England), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

16'

E. Anderson

Attempt missed. E. Anderson (England), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

16'

England

Corner, England.

5'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

5'

J. Gvardiol

Attempt blocked. J. Gvardiol (Croatia), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

4'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

1'

M. Kovačić

Attempt missed. M. Kovačić (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

1'

Kick-off: England vs Croatia.

Where the money is

4966492 EUR matched · captured 2 days, 17 hours ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 3775742 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

94.6%

-4.5 vs price

Draw 90.0 · implied 1.1%

3.1%

+2.0 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

2.4%

+2.3 vs price

Half time 16501 EUR

Home 1.73 · implied 57.8%

93.8%

+35.9 vs price

Draw 3.2 · implied 31.2%

4.9%

-26.3 vs price

Away 9.0 · implied 11.1%

1.3%

-9.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 299272 EUR · live

Over 1.37 · implied 73.0%

61.1%

-11.9 vs price

Under 3.7 · implied 27.0%

38.9%

+11.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 1913 EUR

Under 1.25 · implied 80.0%

72.3%

-7.8 vs price

Over 5.0 · implied 20.0%

27.8%

+7.8 vs price

20 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

24' ⚽ M. Rogers · assist J. Bellingham1–0

Half-time · 1–0

59' ⚽ P. Sučić1–1

61' VAR Penalty check · J. Quansah

63' I. Smolčić · Foul

64' ⚽ H. Kane (pen)2–1

70' 🔁 M. Pašalić ◂ P. Sučić

70' 🔁 A. Budimir ◂ I. Matanović

76' 🔁 L. Modrić ◂ J. Mišić

76' 🔁 M. Pašalić ◂ I. Smolčić

77' 🔁 J. Garner ◂ D. Rice

77' 🔁 R. Ngumoha ◂ A. Gordon

78' 🔁 B. White ◂ T. Alexander-Arnold

Full-time · 2–1

90' 🔁 L. Majer ◂ M. Kovačić

Coaches

Thomas Tuchel

Slaven Bilić

Recent form

England

WHCzechia3-0

WACroatia7-0

WACzechia2-0

LHSpain2-3

WAFrance6-4

Croatia

LHSpain1-2

LHEngland0-7

LASpain1-4

WACzechia2-1

LAPortugal1-2

About this match

**England absolutely demolished Croatia 7-0 last time out — Wembley's about to be a coronation.** The Three Lions are rolling hard, while Croatia's Nations League campaign is basically a downward spiral. 🔥

England's picked up four wins in five and frankly looks unstoppable. Croatia's sitting 1W-4L over their last five, fresh off a battering in Spain and that catastrophic home loss to England. Revenge tour energy isn't even real when you're this far behind on form.

Key storylines:

- **H. Kane and the Wembley machine** — England's attack is razor-sharp at home; Croatia's backline, already thin without key defenders, looks vulnerable
- **M. Kovačić on damage control** — Croatia's midfield anchor needs a masterclass just to keep this respectable against **D. Rice and E. Anderson**
- **Injury pile-up both ways** — England missing **B. Saka, M. Guéhi, R. James**; Croatia without **J. Šutalo, K. Jakić, M. Pongračić** — neither side at full strength, but England's depth wins here

Expected lineups:

- **England**: J. Pickford, N. O'Reilly, E. Konsa, J. Quansah, M. Rogers, E. Anderson, D. Rice, A. Gordon, J. Bellingham, N. Madueke, H. Kane
- **Croatia**: D. Livaković, J. Gvardiol, L. Vušković, M. Erlić, J. Stanišić, M. Kovačić, P. Sučić, I. Perišić, M. Baturina, M. Pašalić, I. Matanović

Prediction:

**England 3-0 Croatia.** England's the clear lean — momentum, home turf, and Croatia just aren't wired for this level right now. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Where to watch

L'Équipe

Match facts

Stadium

Wembley Stadium

City

London

Referee

Morten Krogh

3.82 yellows/match · 100 matches

Kickoff

12 Nov, 19:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

England 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Croatia

1 J. Pickford 7.0 12 B. White 6.7 ↑ 78' 6 J. Quansah 6.8 5 D. Burn 7.4 3 L. Hall 7.3 8 E. Anderson 6.8 18 J. Garner 6.7 ↑ 77' 17 M. Rogers 8.0 10 J. Bellingham 20 R. Ngumoha 6.4 ↑ 77' 9 H. Kane 6.9 1 D. Livaković 6.7 10 L. Modrić 7.0 ↑ 76' 2 J. Stanišić 7.4 3 L. Vušković 6.7 4 J. Gvardiol 6.2 19 M. Pašalić 6.6 ↑ 70' 7 L. Majer ↑ 90' 15 M. Pašalić 6.6 ↑ 70' 16 M. Baturina 7.6 13 N. Vlašić 7.0 11 A. Budimir 6.8 ↑ 70'

Top stats

54%Possession46%

2.8Expected goals (xG)1.32

15Total shots13

4Shots on target5

3Big chances3

6Corners7

Shots

6Shots off target6

5Blocked shots2

12Shots inside box10

3Shots outside box3

2Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed2

0.16Goals prevented0.43

Attack

35Touches in box24

51Final third entries40

1Offsides1

8Free kicks9

2Fouled in final third0

Passing

557Passes466

496Accurate passes408

30/49 (61%)Long balls16/41 (39%)

4/15 (27%)Crosses4/17 (24%)

16Throw-ins9

Duels

49Duels51

35/76 (46%)Ground duels41/76 (54%)

14/25 (56%)Aerial duels11/25 (44%)

11/22 (50%)Dribbles11/18 (61%)

11Dispossessed8

Defending

15Tackles22

40Tackles won59

5Interceptions6

25Clearances18

38Recoveries38

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

6Goal kicks8

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers

England 74%

16%

Croatia 10%

1X2England to win 74% · 1.57 @ William Hill

Who winsEngland to win (DNB) 85% · 1.10 @ Betano

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 64% · 3.30 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 84% · 1.72 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 57% · 1.56 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66% · 1.51 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54% · 1.86 @ 1xBet

BTTSBoth teams to score 51% · 3.30 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 16% · 3.38 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 58% · 1.73 @ betfair

1X2Croatia to win 10% · 7.30 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.27

England

6.00

Draw

9.30

Croatia

Double Chanceconsensus

1.07

England or Draw

1.10

England or Croatia

3.60

Draw or Croatia

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.82

Yes

1.91

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.30

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

17.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.01

Over 0.50

17.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.12

Over 1.50

5.78

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.46

Over 2.50

2.66

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.21

Over 3.50

1.66

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

3.67

Over 4.50

1.27

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.08

England

6.88

Croatia

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.27

Over 7.50

3.15

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.50

Over 8.50

2.38

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.85

Over 9.50

1.86

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.40

Over 10.50

1.50

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.08

Over 11.50

1.28

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

England to win or draw

✓

90% confidence

England to avoid defeat

✓

85% confidence

Over 1.5 goals

✓

84% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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