Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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Luis Pinto
Gil Vicente
CS Marítimo**Gil Vicente's hosting Marítimo in a dead-even matchup** — the H2H is literally split 7-7 over 18 games, and both sides are limping through September. 🏟️
Gil Vicente scraped a **2W-1D-2L** run but just got hammered by Benfica; Marítimo's **1W-1D-3L** is worse, including a 0-3 drubbing at home to the same Benfica. Neither team's exactly in rhythm, but the Barcelos crowd should give **Gil Vicente** a marginal edge.
Key storylines:
- **Gil Vicente's home form** vs Marítimo's away woes — both sides are inconsistent, but the hosts have won 2 of their last 5
- **Marítimo's defensive frailty** — conceding 3 to Benfica and 2 to Arouca suggests a soft backline that Gil Vicente can exploit
- **Midfield battle**: G. Martins and D. Prioste need to dominate V. Danilović and M. Tejón to control tempo
Expected lineups:
- **Gil Vicente**: Lucão, Weverson, J. Buatu, M. Elimbi Gilbert, R. Esgaio, G. Martins, D. Prioste, J. Fernandes, S. García, Murilo, H. Hernández
- **CS Marítimo**: A. Pastor, I. Julião, R. Correia, R. Fernandes, P. Henrique, V. Danilović, M. Tejón, R. Guzzo, S. Bouzaidi, A. Butzke, F. Gomes
Prediction:
**Gil Vicente 2–1 CS Marítimo** — slight lean to the hosts, but this is a toss-up. 🎲
Gil Vicente
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
CS Marítimo
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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