Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
**Union Berlin host Köln fresh off a 5-0 hammering — and this is the revenge fixture nobody saw coming.** 🔥 These two just played each other; Köln absolutely dismantled Union at home. Now it's payback time at An der alten Försterei, but both sides are hobbled by injury.
Union have won more head-to-heads (10 vs 5), so the historical edge matters on home turf. Still, Köln just proved they can dismantle this defense, while Union's backline is stretched thin with **Markgraf** out and **Uduokhai** suspended. Köln, though, are also patched up — missing **Skhiri**, **Dallinga**, and **Hübers**.
Key storylines:
- **Union's defensive crisis** vs Köln's cutting-edge attack — both sides short-handed but Köln's 5-0 win is the elephant in the room
- **Haberer and Burcu** running Union's midfield against **Krauß and Jóhannesson** — midfield battle could swing it
- Home-ground therapy — Union need a response after that drubbing, but Köln travel in genuine form
Expected lineups:
- **1. FC Union Berlin**: Rønnow, Rothe, Van Den Bosch, Querfeld, Juranović, Khedira, Aebischer, Burcu, Jeong, Haberer, Latte Lath
- **1. FC Köln**: Schwäbe, Sosa, Simpson-Pusey, Lochoshvili, Sebulonsen, Krauß, Jóhannesson, Maina, El Mala, Bülter, Ache
Prediction:
**2-1 Union Berlin.** Home pressure and historical advantage edge them past a Köln side still dangerous but stretched.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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