1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

90+6'

J. Hofmann

Yellow card for J. Hofmann (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) for argument.

90+5'

J. Simpson-Pusey

Yellow card for J. Simpson-Pusey (1. FC Köln) for argument.

90+5'

A. García

Yellow card for A. García (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) for argument.

90+2'

S. El Mala

Goal! 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. S. El Mala (1. FC Köln) scores, assisted by M. E. Mala.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

88'

F. Medina

Substitution, Bayer 04 Leverkusen: L. Badé comes on for F. Medina.

88'

I. Maza

Substitution, Bayer 04 Leverkusen: R. Andrich comes on for I. Maza.

85'

P. Schick

Goal! 1. FC Köln 0-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. P. Schick (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) scores, assisted by I. Maza.

84'

M. Moore

Substitution, 1. FC Köln: L. Waldschmidt comes on for M. Moore.

84'

S. Sebulonsen

Substitution, 1. FC Köln: A. Castro-Montes comes on for S. Sebulonsen.

76'

A. Moreira

Attempt missed. A. Moreira (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

76'

M. Tillman

Substitution, Bayer 04 Leverkusen: J. Hofmann comes on for M. Tillman.

75'

M. Bülter

Substitution, 1. FC Köln: M. E. Mala comes on for M. Bülter.

75'

L. Maina

Substitution, 1. FC Köln: R. Heskey comes on for L. Maina.

74'

T. Krauß

Substitution, 1. FC Köln: Í. B. Jóhannesson comes on for T. Krauß.

73'

1. FC Köln

Offside, 1. FC Köln.

70'

B. Sosa

Yellow card for B. Sosa (1. FC Köln) for foul.

69'

L. Maina

Attempt missed. L. Maina (1. FC Köln), right-footed shot. xG 0.20.

69'

M. Moore

Attempt saved. M. Moore (1. FC Köln), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

66'

I. Maza

Attempt missed. I. Maza (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

62'

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Corner, Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

62'

P. Schick

Attempt saved. P. Schick (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.09.

60'

A. Moreira

Attempt saved. A. Moreira (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

60'

P. Schick

Attempt blocked. P. Schick (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

60'

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Corner, Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

57'

J. Schmied

Yellow card for J. Schmied (1. FC Köln) for argument.

55'

M. Tillman

Attempt missed. M. Tillman (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

54'

B. Sosa

Attempt saved. B. Sosa (1. FC Köln), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

53'

E. Tapsoba

Yellow card for E. Tapsoba (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) for foul.

52'

A. Moreira

Yellow card for A. Moreira (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) for argument.

52'

L. Maina

Yellow card for L. Maina (1. FC Köln) for argument.

46'

M. Moore

Yellow card for M. Moore (1. FC Köln) for off the ball foul.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. 1. FC Köln 0-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

45'

1 minute of added time.

42'

J. Quansah

Attempt missed. J. Quansah (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.12.

42'

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Corner, Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

41'

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Corner, Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

40'

T. Krauß

Yellow card for T. Krauß (1. FC Köln) for foul.

36'

M. Bülter

Attempt missed. M. Bülter (1. FC Köln), header from a corner. xG 0.10.

36'

1. FC Köln

Corner, 1. FC Köln.

34'

F. Medina

Yellow card for F. Medina (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) for off the ball foul.

32'

M. Gutiérrez

Attempt saved. M. Gutiérrez (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

23'

F. Medina

Attempt missed. F. Medina (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), header from a set piece. xG 0.09.

21'

S. El Mala

Attempt missed. S. El Mala (1. FC Köln), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

19'

B. Sosa

Attempt saved. B. Sosa (1. FC Köln), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

10'

S. Sebulonsen

Attempt saved. S. Sebulonsen (1. FC Köln), right-footed shot. xG 0.21.

10'

L. Maina

Attempt blocked. L. Maina (1. FC Köln), right-footed shot. xG 0.23.

10'

M. Moore

Attempt missed. M. Moore (1. FC Köln), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

7'

A. García

Goal! 1. FC Köln 0-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. A. García (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) scores.

4'

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Corner, Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

4'

P. Schick

Attempt saved. P. Schick (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

4'

I. Maza

Attempt saved. I. Maza (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

4'

M. Tillman

Attempt saved. M. Tillman (Bayer 04 Leverkusen), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.66.

4'

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Corner, Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

2'

S. El Mala

Attempt blocked. S. El Mala (1. FC Köln), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

1'

L. Maina

Attempt saved. L. Maina (1. FC Köln), left-footed shot. xG 0.12.

1'

Kick-off: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

Where the money is

2457826 EUR matched · captured 5 days, 23 hours ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 1626997 EUR · live

Away 1.02 · implied 98.0%

92.9%

-5.2 vs price

Home 200.0 · implied 0.5%

4.1%

+3.6 vs price

Draw 50.0 · implied 2.0%

3.0%

+1.0 vs price

Half time 405 EUR

Away 2.22 · implied 45.0%

64.4%

+19.4 vs price

Home 5.4 · implied 18.5%

28.4%

+9.9 vs price

Draw 2.76 · implied 36.2%

7.1%

-29.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 275710 EUR · live

Under 1.12 · implied 89.3%

80.2%

-9.1 vs price

Over 8.6 · implied 11.6%

20.5%

+8.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 140 EUR

Over 5.6 · implied 17.9%

66.3%

+48.5 vs price

Under 1.21 · implied 82.6%

33.7%

-49.0 vs price

18 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

7' ⚽ A. García0–1

34' F. Medina · Off the ball foul

40' T. Krauß · Foul

Half-time · 0–1

46' M. Moore · Off the ball foul

52' A. Moreira · Argument

52' L. Maina · Argument

53' E. Tapsoba · Foul

57' J. Schmied · Argument

70' B. Sosa · Foul

74' 🔁 Í. B. Jóhannesson ◂ T. Krauß

75' 🔁 R. Heskey ◂ L. Maina

75' 🔁 M. E. Mala ◂ M. Bülter

76' 🔁 J. Hofmann ◂ M. Tillman

84' 🔁 A. Castro-Montes ◂ S. Sebulonsen

84' 🔁 L. Waldschmidt ◂ M. Moore

85' ⚽ P. Schick · assist I. Maza0–2

88' 🔁 R. Andrich ◂ I. Maza

88' 🔁 L. Badé ◂ F. Medina

Full-time · 1–2

90'⁺² ⚽ S. El Mala · assist M. E. Mala1–2

90'⁺⁵ J. Simpson-Pusey · Argument

90'⁺⁵ A. García · Argument

90'⁺⁶ J. Hofmann · Argument

Coaches

René Wagner

Carles Martínez

Recent form

1. FC Köln

DA1. FC Union Berlin1-1

WH1. FC Union Berlin5-0

DHFC Schalke 040-0

LAEintracht Frankfurt0-1

WHBorussia M'gladbach2-1

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

LHOlympique de Marseille0-1

LHVfB Stuttgart2-4

WH1. FC Nürnberg5-2

LATSG Hoffenheim0-3

WAOFI Crete2-0

About this match

**Köln's on a mini-roll, but Leverkusen's got the edge in this Rhine derby** — the hosts are creeping up the table while the visitors are stuck in feast-or-famine mode. 🍷

Köln look solid (2W-2D-1L) with that stunning 5-0 demolition of Union Berlin still fresh, but Leverkusen are the historical favorites here — 32 wins to Köln's 18 in 75 meetings. Problem is, the Werkself are inconsistent right now: a flashy 5-2 win over Nürnberg followed by that 2-4 stinker at home to Stuttgart tells you everything.

Key storylines:

- **R. Ache and P. Schick** will be the focal points up front — both sides need clinical finishing in what could be a tight contest
- Köln's **E. Skhiri** absence (ankle) is a real blow to midfield control, giving Leverkusen a chance to dominate possession
- **A. García** anchoring Leverkusen's midfield will be key to steadying a team that's been leaking goals at home

Expected lineups:

- **1. FC Köln**: M. Schwäbe, B. Sosa, J. Simpson-Pusey, J. Schmied, T. Krauß, Í. B. Jóhannesson, L. Maina, S. El Mala, M. Bülter, R. Ache
- **Bayer 04 Leverkusen**: M. Flekken, M. Gutiérrez, E. Tapsoba, F. Medina, A. García, E. Fernández, A. Moreira, I. Maza, J. Hofmann, P. Schick

Prediction:

**1-1 draw.** Köln's defensive resilience keeps them in it; Leverkusen's home struggles mean neither side finds a winner. 🤝

Where to watch

MBC Action

Match facts

Stadium

RheinEnergieStadion

City

Cologne

Referee

Felix Zwayer

4.76 yellows/match · 79 matches

Kickoff

08 Nov, 14:30 UTC

Competition

Bundesliga

Highlights & clips

1. FC Köln 3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

1 M. Schwäbe 10.0 2 J. Schmied 6.4 22 J. Simpson-Pusey 6.6 8 Í. B. Jóhannesson 6.5 ↑ 74' 17 A. Castro-Montes 6.6 ↑ 84' 19 M. E. Mala 7.2 ↑ 75' 23 P. Okon-Engstler 7.0 7 L. Waldschmidt 6.4 ↑ 84' 3 B. Sosa 7.5 11 R. Heskey 7.1 ↑ 75' 10 S. El Mala 7.1 1 M. Flekken 7.4 4 J. Quansah 7.3 12 E. Tapsoba 7.3 5 L. Badé 6.3 ↑ 88' 3 M. Gutiérrez 7.3 6 E. Fernández 6.6 24 A. García 9.4 9 A. Moreira 6.3 7 J. Hofmann 6.5 ↑ 76' 8 R. Andrich 6.6 ↑ 88' 14 P. Schick 7.7

Substitutes

20GR. Zieler 28DS. Sebulonsen↓ 84'7.0 14DG. Mensah 24DL. Lochoshvili 5MT. Krauß↓ 74'6.8 37ML. Maina↓ 75'6.3 29MJ. Thielmann 30FM. Bülter↓ 75'7.0 47FM. Moore↓ 84'6.2

Coach: René Wagner

Substitutes

28GJ. Blaswich 2DF. Medina↓ 88'7.2 15DT. Oermann 10MM. Tillman↓ 76'6.8 42MM. Culbreath 17ML. Vázquez 30FI. Maza↓ 88'8.1 29FE. Ben Seghir 22FV. O. Boniface

Coach: Carles Martínez

Top stats

38%Possession62%

1.61Expected goals (xG)1.87

12Total shots14

6Shots on target8

3Big chances4

2Corners6

Shots

4Shots off target5

2Blocked shots1

8Shots inside box8

4Shots outside box6

1Big chances scored1

2Big chances missed3

2.59Goals prevented0.11

Attack

23Touches in box33

55Final third entries69

1Offsides0

12Free kicks12

5Fouled in final third4

Passing

392Passes638

342Accurate passes573

15/30 (50%)Long balls25/49 (51%)

5/18 (28%)Crosses5/16 (31%)

14Throw-ins20

Duels

52Duels48

42/77 (55%)Ground duels35/77 (45%)

5/14 (36%)Aerial duels9/14 (64%)

8/19 (42%)Dribbles5/17 (29%)

7Dispossessed12

Defending

24Tackles18

63Tackles won72

11Interceptions8

19Clearances19

43Recoveries54

Discipline

12Fouls12

6Yellow cards5

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

3Big saves0

12Goal kicks4

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers

Köln 26%

23%

Leverkusen 51%

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 66% · 3.40 @ William Hill

1X2Leverkusen to win 51% · 2.10 @ Bet365

Who winsLeverkusen to win (DNB) 59% · 1.33 @ Novibet

BTTSBoth teams to score 65% · 2.80 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 85% · 1.75 @ William Hill

CornersOver 9.5 corners 55% · 1.69 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 66% · 1.41 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 23% · 3.01 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 56% · 1.85 @ Pinnacle

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 55% · 1.81 @ Sbo

1X2Köln to win 26% · 4.53 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

4.60

1. FC Köln

4.11

Draw

1.66

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Double Chanceconsensus

2.08

1. FC Köln or Draw

1.21

1. FC Köln or Bayer 04 Leverkusen

1.19

Draw or Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.57

Yes

2.33

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

8.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

3.60

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

17.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.13

Over 1.50

5.50

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.53

Over 2.50

2.40

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.25

Over 3.50

1.62

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

3.98

Over 4.50

1.23

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

3.50

1. FC Köln

1.26

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.22

Over 7.50

4.36

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.41

Over 8.50

2.93

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.65

Over 9.50

2.23

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.00

Over 10.50

1.73

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.58

Over 11.50

1.50

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Over 1.5 goals

✓

85% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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