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John Eustace
Derby County
Cardiff City
Derby County
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Cardiff City
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
239812 EUR · live
Away
38.0 · implied 2.6%
43.3%
+40.7 vs price
Home
38.0 · implied 2.6%
32.7%
+30.0 vs price
Draw
1.06 · implied 94.3%
24.1%
-70.3 vs price
Half time
149 EUR
Draw
2.38 · implied 42.0%
44.2%
+2.1 vs price
Away
4.2 · implied 23.8%
44.2%
+20.4 vs price
Home
2.82 · implied 35.5%
10.7%
-24.8 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
26088 EUR · live
Over
1.15 · implied 87.0%
82.9%
-4.0 vs price
Under
7.0 · implied 14.3%
17.1%
+2.9 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
2711 EUR · live
Under
1.81 · implied 55.2%
90.0%
+34.7 vs price
Over
2.14 · implied 46.7%
10.0%
-36.7 vs price
14 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
9'
C. Taylor · Argument
19'
⚽
C. Ashford · assist R. Kpakio0–1
26'
⚽
C. Morris · assist B. Clark1–1
39'
⚽
Y. Salech · assist R. Colwill1–2
Half-time · 1–2
49'
⚽
B. Clark2–2
53'
A. Robertson · Foul
55'
O. Fraulo · Foul
59'
🔁
C. Willock ◂ C. Ashford
59'
🔁
D. Turnbull ◂ R. Colwill
60'
L. Travis · Foul
64'
🔁
R. Hedges ◂ O. Fraulo
65'
🔁
R. Brewster ◂ C. Taylor
71'
🔁
I. Davies ◂ O. Tanner
71'
🔁
J. Colwill ◂ J. Moylan
80'
M. Johnston · Foul
84'
D. Sanderson · Foul
88'
🔁
L. Salvesen ◂ C. Morris
88'
🔁
R. Nyambe ◂ M. Johnston
Full-time · 2–2
Coaches
John EustaceBrian Barry-Murphy 
Recent form
Derby CountyLACharlton Athletic1-2
LHLincoln City1-2
DARotherham United1-1
LABurton Albion0-1
WAMansfield Town3-1
Cardiff CityDHWrexham1-1
WHSwindon Town3-2
WHAS Roma4-1
WAForest Green Rovers5-1
WACork City6-1
Where to watch
Viaplay
Viaplay
TV2 PlayViaplay
Viaplay
Match facts
Stadium
Pride Park Stadium
City
Derby
Referee
Kickoff
22 Aug, 14:00 UTC
Competition
Championship
Highlights & clips
Derby County
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Cardiff City
1
J. W. Zetterström
7.8
15
L. Salvesen
6.6
↑ 88'
28
D. Sanderson
6.7
6
S. K. Langås
6.6
10
R. Brewster
6.4
↑ 65'
27
L. Travis
6.4
20
A. Mowatt
7.2
8
B. Clark
7.5
26
R. Hedges
6.8
↑ 64'
24
R. Nyambe
6.7
↑ 88'
9
C. Morris
7.6
1
N. Trott
7.2
44
R. Kpakio
6.4
38
P. Ng
6.9
3
J. Bagan
8.6
23
C. Scanlon
6.8
27
J. Colwill
6.6
↑ 71'
18
A. Robertson
6.8
39
I. Davies
6.4
↑ 71'
16
C. Willock
6.9
↑ 59'
14
D. Turnbull
6.9
↑ 59'
9
Y. Salech
6.6
Substitutes
31GJ. Vickers
22DM. Johnston↓ 88'6.6
3DC. Forsyth
18MC. Taylor↓ 65'7.1
33MC. Taylor↓ 65'7.1
29MO. Fraulo↓ 64'6.9
23MJ. Ward
37MO. Eames
13FF. Bilbija
Coach: John Eustace
Substitutes
41GM. Turner
30GH. Tyrer
40DN. Anyadike
45MC. Ashford↓ 59'7.3
10MR. Colwill↓ 59'7.2
11MO. Tanner↓ 71'6.9
8MJ. Moylan↓ 71'6.5
33MR. Tankiewicz
47FC. Robinson
Coach: Brian Barry-Murphy
Top stats
36%Possession64%
1.62Expected goals (xG)1.98
15Total shots16
7Shots on target7
3Big chances4
7Corners7
Shots
7Shots off target6
1Blocked shots3
12Shots inside box10
3Shots outside box6
0Hit woodwork1
1Big chances scored2
2Big chances missed2
1.03Goals prevented0.22
Attack
33Touches in box22
53Final third entries65
5Offsides0
10Free kicks12
2Fouled in final third3
Passing
282Passes521
222Accurate passes445
33/60 (55%)Long balls23/62 (37%)
5/23 (22%)Crosses3/23 (13%)
12Throw-ins15
Duels
47Duels53
31/68 (46%)Ground duels37/68 (54%)
16/32 (50%)Aerial duels16/32 (50%)
8/16 (50%)Dribbles5/8 (63%)
12Dispossessed11
Defending
14Tackles20
57Tackles won60
4Interceptions0
34Clearances26
47Recoveries30
Discipline
12Fouls10
5Yellow cards1
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
1Big saves1
10Goal kicks8
1Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 73 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 53% · 1.77 @ 10bet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 65% · 1.45 @ Betway
Who winsDerby to win (DNB) 65% · 1.50 @ forbet
1X2Draw 27% · 2.55 @ forbet
BTTSBoth teams to score 54% · 3.45 @ 10bet
1X2Cardiff to win 32% · 4.20 @ 10bet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 72% · 1.04 @ 888Sport
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 50% · 5.00 @ 888Sport
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 74% · 2.20 @ 888Sport
1X2Derby to win 41% · 2.40 @ 888Sport
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 58% · 1.70 @ Pinnacle
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.97
Derby County ▲
3.46
Draw ▼
3.67
Cardiff City ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.26
Derby County or Draw ▲
1.28
Derby County or Cardiff City
1.78
Draw or Cardiff City ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.80
Yes ▼
1.91
No ▲
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
2.45
YES
1.48
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
4.20
YES
1.18
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.15
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
6.25
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
9.03
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.30
Over 1.50 ▲
3.27
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.96
Over 2.50 ▲
1.80
Under 2.50 ▲
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.38
Over 3.50 ▼
1.28
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.50
Over 4.50
1.10
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.42
Derby County ▲
2.64
Cardiff City ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
12.75
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.04
Over 5.50
8.70
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.10
Over 6.50
5.70
Under 6.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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