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John Mousinho
Portsmouth
Derby County
Portsmouth
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Derby County
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
369433 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
62.7%
-36.4 vs price
Home
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
30.8%
+30.7 vs price
Draw
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
6.7%
+6.6 vs price
Half time
2043 EUR · live
Away
1.2 · implied 83.3%
69.7%
-13.6 vs price
Draw
6.4 · implied 15.6%
19.1%
+3.5 vs price
Home
32.0 · implied 3.1%
11.1%
+7.9 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
67856 EUR · live
Under
1.07 · implied 93.5%
72.5%
-20.9 vs price
Over
15.5 · implied 6.5%
27.5%
+21.0 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
3180 EUR · live
Under
1.02 · implied 98.0%
87.2%
-10.9 vs price
Over
27.0 · implied 3.7%
12.8%
+9.1 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
16'
⚽
S. Szmodics · assist B. Clark0–1
Half-time · 0–1
51'
S. K. Langås · Argument
59'
🔁
L. Salvesen ◂ R. Brewster
62'
⚽
L. Salvesen · assist O. Fraulo0–2
65'
🔁
L. Brooke-Smith ◂ R. K.-McQueen
66'
🔁
C. Bishop ◂ M. Milovanović
69'
T. Devlin · Foul
72'
🔁
R. Shein ◂ E. Adams
72'
🔁
I. Mohamed ◂ M. Pack
80'
🔁
R. Nyambe ◂ C. Forsyth
81'
🔁
J. Ward ◂ B. Clark
83'
C. Taylor · Foul
85'
🔁
O. Bailey ◂ Z. Swanson
86'
🔁
F. Bilbija ◂ S. Szmodics
86'
🔁
M. Johnston ◂ R. Hedges
Second half · 0–2
Coaches
John MousinhoJohn Eustace 
Recent form
PortsmouthLABristol City1-2
WALincoln City3-1
LHQueens Park Rangers1-3
LAWest Ham United1-3
DADarmstadt 980-0
Derby CountyLHSwansea City0-3
DHCardiff City2-2
LACharlton Athletic1-2
LHLincoln City1-2
DARotherham United1-1
Where to watch
Viaplay
V Sport Football
Sky Sports+
Viaplay
Sky Sports+
Viaplay
V Sport FootballViaplay
Match facts
Stadium
Fratton Park
City
Portsmouth
Kickoff
01 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Competition
Championship
Highlights & clips
Portsmouth
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Derby County
31
D. Bielica
6.0
24
T. Devlin
6.9
2
B. Arthur
7.0
55
M. Dia
6.6
27
O. Bailey
6.7
↑ 85'
37
I. Mohamed
6.6
↑ 72'
19
R. Shein
6.7
↑ 72'
11
A. Kamara
6.5
10
A. Segecic
6.8
28
L. Brooke-Smith
6.7
↑ 65'
9
C. Bishop
6.4
↑ 66'
1
J. W. Zetterström
6.8
6
S. K. Langås
7.0
28
D. Sanderson
7.9
24
R. Nyambe
6.5
↑ 80'
18
C. Taylor
29
O. Fraulo
6.9
20
A. Mowatt
6.9
22
M. Johnston
6.6
↑ 86'
23
J. Ward
6.8
↑ 81'
15
L. Salvesen
7.1
↑ 59'
13
F. Bilbija
6.6
↑ 86'
Substitutes
1GN. Schmid
22DZ. Swanson↓ 85'6.4
5DR. Poole
38ME. Adams↓ 72'6.6
7MM. Pack↓ 72'6.5
8MJ. Swift
25FR. K.-McQueen↓ 65'6.6
29FM. Milovanović↓ 66'6.1
34FH. Blair
Coach: John Mousinho
Substitutes
31GJ. Vickers
3DC. Forsyth↓ 80'7.2
26MR. Hedges↓ 86'7.4
11MS. Szmodics↓ 86'7.1
8MB. Clark↓ 81'6.9
37MO. Eames
10FR. Brewster↓ 59'6.3
19FH. W. Meister
Coach: John Eustace
Top stats
65%Possession35%
0.83Expected goals (xG)0.55
21Total shots8
3Shots on target5
0Big chances1
11Corners2
Shots
9Shots off target2
9Blocked shots1
10Shots inside box7
11Shots outside box1
0Big chances scored1
-0.77Goals prevented0.31
Attack
29Touches in box19
73Final third entries50
0Offsides3
15Free kicks12
4Fouled in final third1
Passing
499Passes267
421Accurate passes184
20/52 (38%)Long balls18/55 (33%)
9/32 (28%)Crosses3/7 (43%)
31Throw-ins15
Duels
51Duels49
33/66 (50%)Ground duels33/66 (50%)
18/34 (53%)Aerial duels16/34 (47%)
6/17 (35%)Dribbles1/8 (13%)
10Dispossessed7
Defending
14Tackles21
71Tackles won43
9Interceptions8
28Clearances37
41Recoveries43
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
4Goal kicks10
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 56% · 1.65 @ Unibet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.40 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 53% · 1.17 @ 10bet
1X2Draw 28% · 2.50 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 73% · 1.31 @ Pinnacle
BTTSBoth teams to score 52% · 3.50 @ Bet365
1X2Portsmouth to win 45% · 2.45 @ William Hill
1X2Derby to win 27% · 4.01 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 2.16 @ 1xBet
Who winsPortsmouth to win (DNB) 55% · 1.50 @ Novibet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.85 @ betfair
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.00
Portsmouth
3.40
Draw
3.77
Derby County
Double Chanceconsensus
1.25
Portsmouth or Draw
1.29
Portsmouth or Derby County
1.80
Draw or Derby County
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.77
Yes
1.95
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
2.55
YES
1.45
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
4.00
YES
1.20
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.35
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
6.38
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
9.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.32
Over 1.50
3.25
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.00
Over 2.50
1.80
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.50
Over 3.50
1.30
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
7.00
Over 4.50
1.10
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.43
Portsmouth
2.62
Derby County
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.13
Over 7.50
4.54
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.30
Over 8.50
3.03
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.58
Over 9.50
2.28
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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