Burnley vs Middlesbrough — live & stats

Where the money is

2556045 EUR matched · captured 1 week, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 1536310 EUR · live

Draw 1.12 · implied 89.3%

50.3%

-39.0 vs price

Away 16.5 · implied 6.1%

38.5%

+32.5 vs price

Home 22.0 · implied 4.5%

11.2%

+6.6 vs price

Half time 2751 EUR · live

Away 3.55 · implied 28.2%

51.9%

+23.8 vs price

Draw 1.89 · implied 52.9%

38.6%

-14.3 vs price

Home 5.3 · implied 18.9%

9.4%

-9.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 632964 EUR · live

Under 1.08 · implied 92.6%

84.2%

-8.4 vs price

Over 13.5 · implied 7.4%

15.8%

+8.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 4537 EUR · live

Under 1.07 · implied 93.5%

83.3%

-10.2 vs price

Over 12.0 · implied 8.3%

16.7%

+8.4 vs price

18 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

23' ⚽ A. Morris · assist S. Berhalter0–1

28' H. Mejbri · Foul

39' W. Lankshear · Foul

Half-time · 0–1

46' 🔁 M. Alleyne ◂ H. Mejbri

46' 🔁 L. Ramazani ◂ A. Hountondji

54' ⚽ U. Raghouber · assist Z. Amdouni1–1

61' 🔁 T. Conway ◂ R. McGree

61' 🔁 L. Castledine ◂ K. Joseph

71' 🔁 A. Ramsey ◂ Z. Amdouni

71' A. Jones · Foul

74' 🔁 A. Phillips ◂ A. Jones

77' 🔁 A. Broja ◂ J. Bruun Larsen

81' 🔁 M. Trésor ◂ D. Satpayev

87' 🔁 D. Strelec ◂ W. Lankshear

Full-time · 1–1

90'⁺¹ U. Raghouber · Foul

Coaches

Nicky Hayen

Kim Hellberg

Recent form

Burnley

LANorwich City1-4

DABradford City0-0

LAWest Bromwich Albion1-3

DHWest Ham United2-2

DHNotts County1-1

Middlesbrough

WHWest Bromwich Albion3-1

WADoncaster Rovers3-1

LABlackburn Rovers1-2

WHLincoln City2-1

WHWrexham1-0

Where to watch

ESPN 2 Africa

Match facts

Stadium

Turf Moor

City

Burnley

Referee

Matt Donohue

4.14 yellows/match · 35 matches

Kickoff

02 Sep, 19:00 UTC

Competition

Championship

Highlights & clips

Burnley 4-3-2-1 · 4-3-3 Middlesbrough

1 M. Weiss 5.8 22 O. Sonne 6.4 15 A. Ahmedhodžić 6.6 18 H. Ekdal 6.8 14 C. Roberts 6.4 3 M. Alleyne 6.9 ↑ 46' 8 U. Raghouber 7.7 27 A. Broja 6.3 ↑ 77' 19 L. Ramazani 6.5 ↑ 46' 31 M. Trésor 6.4 ↑ 81' 21 A. Ramsey 6.6 ↑ 71' 1 R. Vítek 7.7 2 C. Brittain 6.6 12 L. Ayling 7.3 4 A. Phillips 6.6 ↑ 74' 30 N. Borges 6.5 10 A. Morris 8.5 29 A. Malanda 7.0 6 S. Berhalter 7.3 19 L. Castledine 6.3 ↑ 61' 13 D. Strelec ↑ 87' 9 T. Conway 6.8 ↑ 61'

Substitutes

37GG. Coudert 2DK. Walker 20DS. Sambo 28MH. Mejbri↓ 46'6.7 12FD. Satpayev↓ 81'6.9 11FZ. Amdouni↓ 71'6.8 7FJ. Bruun Larsen↓ 77'6.5 17FA. Hountondji↓ 46'6.1 10FM. Edwards

Coach: Nicky Hayen

Substitutes

31GS. Brynn 5DA. Jones↓ 74'6.6 3DS. Byram 8MR. McGree↓ 61'5.9 17MM. Arfsten 21MR. Pukštas 22FK. Joseph↓ 61'6.5 7FW. Lankshear↓ 87'6.3 44FC. Ibeh

Coach: Kim Hellberg

Top stats

43%Possession57%

0.64Expected goals (xG)1.22

11Total shots10

3Shots on target2

0Big chances3

5Corners1

Shots

4Shots off target5

4Blocked shots3

6Shots inside box4

5Shots outside box6

0Hit woodwork1

0Big chances missed3

-0.65Goals prevented0.42

Attack

18Touches in box26

58Final third entries61

2Offsides6

8Free kicks11

1Fouled in final third0

Passing

390Passes541

301Accurate passes466

24/74 (32%)Long balls18/39 (46%)

3/18 (17%)Crosses1/12 (8%)

16Throw-ins23

Duels

43Duels57

29/67 (43%)Ground duels38/67 (57%)

11/26 (42%)Aerial duels15/26 (58%)

3/14 (21%)Dribbles6/16 (38%)

10Dispossessed9

Defending

19Tackles21

53Tackles won52

10Interceptions9

22Clearances15

43Recoveries53

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow cards2

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0Big saves2

12Goal kicks5

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Burnley 34%

27%

Middlesbrough 39%

Who winsMiddlesbrough to win (DNB) 66% · 1.77 @ 10bet

CornersOver 9.5 corners 56% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.44 @ betfair

1X2Middlesbrough to win 39% · 2.75 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.75 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 3.70 @ Unibet

1X2Draw 27% · 2.67 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 75% · 1.87 @ Unibet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 70% · 1.55 @ Pinnacle

1X2Burnley to win 34% · 3.04 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.70 @ 10bet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.80

Burnley

3.54

Draw

2.35

Middlesbrough

Double Chanceconsensus

1.55

Burnley or Draw

1.26

Burnley or Middlesbrough

1.42

Draw or Middlesbrough

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.50

Yes

2.45

No

Home Clean Sheetconsensus

4.00

YES

1.20

NO

Away Clean Sheetconsensus

3.75

YES

1.22

NO

Home Win to Nilconsensus

5.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.78

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

10.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.45

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.60

Over 2.50

2.25

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.60

Over 3.50

1.47

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.75

Over 4.50

1.17

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.07

Burnley

1.68

Middlesbrough

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.22

Over 7.50

3.70

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.44

Over 8.50

2.58

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.72

Over 9.50

2.00

Under 9.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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