Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sized**Boro are rolling; Millwall are barely standing.** This is a tale of momentum versus mayhem, with **Middlesbrough** hosting a **Millwall** side that's limping in on one win in five. 🔴
**Middlesbrough** have won three of their last five and look dangerous at home, though that shocker against Crystal Palace shows they're not invincible. **Millwall**, meanwhile, are dealing with a brutal injury list and a confidence crisis after back-to-back defeats to Blackburn and Newcastle.
Key storylines:
- **Middlesbrough's attacking depth** will be tested without Sarmiento; relying on Lankshear and Joseph to find the killer ball
- **Millwall's injury crisis** (five players out) leaves them dangerously thin, especially in midfield and defense
- Head-to-head is tight historically, but Boro's current form gives them the edge at the Riverside 🏟️
Expected lineups:
- **Middlesbrough**: Vítek, Malanda, Brittain, Edmundson, Borges, Morris, Arfsten, Lankshear, Castledine, Joseph, Strelec
- **Millwall**: Crocombe, Cooper, Taylor, Sturge, Baggott, Neghli, Sykes, Lisbie, Kelly, Dykes, Arconte
Prediction:
**Middlesbrough 2–0 Millwall.** Boro's form at home is too strong for a Millwall side decimated by injuries and desperately searching for answers.
Everything we are at least 80% sure of for this match. We publish nothing below that — across all fixtures, 86.7% of these turn out right.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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