Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Bolton's hitting form again, but Stoke just won't quit** — this is a clash between a resurgent Wanderers side and a ruthless promotion machine that's basically been flawless lately. 🔥
Bolton have won 2 of their last 5 and showed real bite in that 4-3 thriller at Norwich, but they're also leaky at the back with three defeats in that stretch. Meanwhile, Stoke are on a **4-win, 1-draw run** — utterly clinical and barely conceding. This is a proper acid test for the hosts.
Key storylines:
- **Bolton's attacking flair** (Dong, Rodrigues, Junior) needs to click in a high-tempo game, but they're missing defensive depth without Brunt and Stephenson
- **Stoke's ruthless efficiency** under pressure — Soumaré, Galbraith, and that front four (Graham, Johansson, Gallagher) convert chances with cold precision
- H2H is perfectly balanced at 4-4 in the last 11, so there's nothing to lean on historically
Expected lineups:
- **Bolton Wanderers**: Bonham, Conway, Forino, Davies, Famewo, Sheehan, Erhahon, Junior, Rodrigues, Dong, Dalby
- **Stoke City**: Griffiths, Bocat, Wilmot, Talovierov, Johnson, Galbraith, Soumaré, Cissé, Graham, Johansson, Gallagher
Prediction:
**Stoke City 2-1 Bolton Wanderers**
Stoke's current form is just too hot to ignore, even on the road. Bolton will score but won't quite have the defensive glue to hold on.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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