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João Gião
CD Nacional
CF Estrela Amadora
CD Nacional
3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3
CF Estrela Amadora
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
115846 EUR · live
Away
1.09 · implied 91.7%
37.5%
-54.2 vs price
Draw
27.0 · implied 3.7%
31.7%
+28.0 vs price
Home
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
30.8%
+30.7 vs price
Half time
592 EUR · live
Home
1.07 · implied 93.5%
53.2%
-40.3 vs price
Draw
11.0 · implied 9.1%
36.0%
+26.9 vs price
Away
75.0 · implied 1.3%
10.6%
+9.3 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
51989 EUR · live
Under
2.58 · implied 38.8%
50.3%
+11.5 vs price
Over
1.64 · implied 61.0%
49.7%
-11.3 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
59 EUR
Over
10.0 · implied 10.0%
92.5%
+82.5 vs price
Under
1.11 · implied 90.1%
5.1%
-85.0 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 6 clips
Player of the match
Match events
3'
⚽
Wesley Gasolina · assist W. Kokolo1–0
40'
🔁
M. Djaló ◂ F. Soares
Half-time · 1–1
45'
Zé Vitor · Foul
45'+1
⚽
I. Stoica (pen)1–1
48'
W. Kokolo · Foul
62'
⚽
A. Marcus · assist E. Doué1–2
66'
⚽
P. Messias Cardozo · assist Liziero2–2
67'
🔁
J. Jordán ◂ Robinho
69'
🔁
S. Gavriel ◂ D. Júnior
69'
🔁
A. Obando ◂ P. Messias Cardozo
72'
🔁
B. Souza ◂ I. Stoica
78'
🔁
M. Jensen ◂ W. Kokolo
79'
🔁
D. d. L. Cruz ◂ Wesley Gasolina
83'
⚽
L. Antonetti · assist E. Doué2–3
86'
L. Antonetti · Foul
89'
🔁
B. Schappo ◂ E. Doué
Full-time · 2–3
Coaches
Pepa 
Recent form
LAVitória SC0-1
WHEstoril Praia2-0
DASanta Clara2-2
LACF Estrela Amadora0-2
DHLeganés0-0
DAFC Alverca2-2
DHSporting CP2-2
WHAl-Nassr4-2
WHLusitano Ginásio Clube1-0
DHPortimonense SAD1-1
Where to watch
NSportsYouTube - N Sports
Sport TV1
Match facts
Stadium
Estádio da Madeira
City
Funchal
Kickoff
30 Aug, 14:30 UTC
Competition
Liga Portugal Betclic
Highlights & clips
1
R. B. Marin
6.0
34
L. Santos
6.9
6
Matheus Dias
6.2
38
Zé Vitor
5.2
2
D. d. L. Cruz
6.3
↑ 79'
28
Liziero
7.2
20
M. Djaló
5.8
↑ 40'
7
M. Jensen
6.3
↑ 78'
8
M. Baeza
6.7
11
S. Gavriel
6.5
↑ 69'
9
A. Obando
6.5
↑ 69'
24
L. Linck
6.6
21
M. Scholze
6.6
30
Luan Patrick
6.6
5
S. Leković
6.4
55
R. Soares
6.1
14
L. Zvonarek
6.4
4
B. Schappo
↑ 89'
19
J. Jordán
6.7
↑ 67'
99
A. Marcus
8.3
37
L. Antonetti
7.1
93
B. Souza
6.7
↑ 72'
Top stats
51%Possession49%
0.83Expected goals (xG)2.1
10Total shots14
5Shots on target4
1Big chances4
4Corners3
Shots
2Shots off target8
3Blocked shots2
4Shots inside box9
6Shots outside box5
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored3
0Big chances missed1
-1.4Goals prevented-0.29
Attack
12Touches in box27
52Final third entries42
1Offsides1
9Free kicks11
1Fouled in final third2
Passing
410Passes390
337Accurate passes319
24/56 (43%)Long balls20/54 (37%)
2/17 (12%)Crosses3/16 (19%)
23Throw-ins19
Duels
48Duels52
26/61 (43%)Ground duels35/61 (57%)
14/23 (61%)Aerial duels9/23 (39%)
4/17 (24%)Dribbles5/17 (29%)
6Dispossessed3
Defending
15Tackles19
53Tackles won74
12Interceptions7
21Clearances26
40Recoveries56
Discipline
12Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
0Big saves1
13Goal kicks5
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 15 bookmakers
Who winsNacional to win (DNB) 68% · 1.68 @ Betsson
1X2Draw 29% · 2.20 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 60%
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 51% · 1.85 @ Bet365
BTTSBoth teams to score 54% · 1.87 @ fonbet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 71% · 1.33 @ Bet365
1X2Estrela Amadora to win 30% · 3.60 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 73% · 1.29 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63%
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 52% · 2.00 @ Bet365
1X2Nacional to win 41% · 2.88 @ Bet365
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.25
CD Nacional
3.20
Draw
3.10
CF Estrela Amadora
Double Chanceconsensus
1.36
CD Nacional or Draw
1.36
CD Nacional or CF Estrela Amadora
1.57
Draw or CF Estrela Amadora
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.77
Yes
1.95
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.06
Over 0.50
10.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.29
Over 1.50
3.50
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.95
Over 2.50
1.85
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.25
Over 3.50
1.33
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.50
Over 4.50
1.11
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.67
CD Nacional
2.10
CF Estrela Amadora
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.73
Over 9.50
2.00
Under 9.50
1X2 (1st Half)consensus
2.88
CD Nacional
2.20
Draw
3.60
CF Estrela Amadora
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
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