**Arouca's home form is the difference here** — they've got the upper hand in this head-to-head and the comfier turf advantage. 🏟️ Estrela Amadora are scrappy and inconsistent (three goals conceded away to Rio Ave tells you something), while Arouca's mixed bag at least includes a draw with Sporting CP.

Arouca are 3-1 up in the last six meetings, a solid cushion. Estrela's resilience is real — they beat Braga at home — but they've also shipped chances for fun. This feels like a **home team edge** without being dominant.

Key storylines:

- **I. Barbero and A. Trezza** lead Arouca's attack on familiar turf where they've historically dominated this fixture
- **E. Doué and S. Serra** are Estrela's creative spark, but defending on the road has been shaky
- **Home record clash**: Arouca's consistency at Estádio Municipal vs Estrela's vulnerability away from Lisbon

Expected lineups:

- **FC Arouca**: I. de Arruabarrena, O. Lebedenko, J. Fontán, T. Esgaio, T. Fukui, E. v. Ee, N. Djouahra, H. Lee, A. Trezza, I. Barbero
- **CF Estrela Amadora**: L. Linck, R. Soares, Luan Patrick, M. Scholze, L. Zvonarek, E. Doué, I. Stoica, S. Serra, A. Marcus, L. Antonetti

Prediction:

**Arouca 2–1 Estrela** 🎯

Arouca lean on home form and the h2h edge; Estrela grab a consolation but can't hold it together on the road.