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CD Nacional
CD Nacional
CD Nacional
Rio Ave
CD Nacional
CD Nacional
CD Nacional
CD Nacional
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
CD Nacional
CD Nacional
CD Nacional
Rio Ave
CD Nacional
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Vasco Seabra
Rio Ave
CD Nacional
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
CD Nacional
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Rio Ave 3-2 CD Nacional.
90+4'
CD Nacional
Corner, CD Nacional.
90+3'
CD Nacional
Corner, CD Nacional.
90'
7 minutes of added time.
88'
CD Nacional
Offside, CD Nacional.
87'
Rio Ave
Corner, Rio Ave.
86'
CD Nacional
Corner, CD Nacional.
84'
CD Nacional
Corner, CD Nacional.
82'
CD Nacional
Offside, CD Nacional.
77'
CD Nacional
Offside, CD Nacional.
67'
Rio Ave
Corner, Rio Ave.
65'
Rio Ave
Corner, Rio Ave.
57'
Goal! Rio Ave 2-1 CD Nacional. D. Bezerra (Rio Ave) scores, assisted by S. Clemmensen.
47'
Rio Ave
Corner, Rio Ave.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Rio Ave 1-1 CD Nacional.
45'
1 minute of added time.
44'
Rio Ave
Corner, Rio Ave.
37'
CD Nacional
Corner, CD Nacional.
32'
Goal! Rio Ave 0-1 CD Nacional. A. K. Njoya (CD Nacional) scores, assisted by F. Gonçalves.
31'
CD Nacional
Corner, CD Nacional.
27'
Attempt missed. A. K. Njoya (CD Nacional), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.20.
26'
CD Nacional
Corner, CD Nacional.
22'
Rio Ave
Corner, Rio Ave.
15'
Attempt blocked. S. Clemmensen (Rio Ave), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.
13'
CD Nacional
Corner, CD Nacional.
8'
Rio Ave
Corner, Rio Ave.
7'
Rio Ave
Corner, Rio Ave.
1'
Kick-off: Rio Ave vs CD Nacional.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
118808 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
64.9%
-34.1 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
21.1%
+21.0 vs price
Draw
34.0 · implied 2.9%
14.2%
+11.2 vs price
Half time
60 EUR
Draw
2.3 · implied 43.5%
99.5%
+56.0 vs price
Home
0.0%
Away
0.0%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
25108 EUR · live
Under
3.0 · implied 33.3%
51.1%
+17.8 vs price
Over
1.5 · implied 66.7%
48.9%
-17.8 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 6 clips
Player of the match
Match events
32'
⚽
A. K. Njoya · assist F. Gonçalves0–1
39'
⚽
S. Clemmensen1–1
Half-time · 1–1
50'
J. Tomé · Foul
54'
J. Tomé · Foul
57'
⚽
D. Bezerra · assist S. Clemmensen2–1
59'
⚽
A. K. Njoya2–2
63'
🔁
F. Petrasso ◂ M. Patricío
63'
🔁
R. Galčík ◂ S. Clemmensen
68'
🔁
M. Baeza ◂ C. Labidi
68'
🔁
F. Nava ◂ D. Júnior
69'
VAR
Penalty check · J. Blesa
72'
⚽
J. Blesa (pen)3–2
73'
J. Blesa
76'
🔁
S. Garcia ◂ M. Sellouki
76'
🔁
D. Nascimento ◂ D. Bezerra
78'
🔁
A. Obando ◂ M. Djaló
78'
🔁
T. Monteiro ◂ J. Blesa
81'
🔁
S. Gavriel ◂ M. Song
81'
🔁
J. Silva ◂ A. K. Njoya
Full-time · 3–2
90'+1
R. Galčík · Foul
Coaches
Vasco SeabraAlexandre Santos 
Recent form
Rio AveLAFC Alverca0-1
DHCF Estrela Amadora3-3
LASanta Clara0-4
LHSporting CP0-4
WAEstoril Praia2-0
CD NacionalLHFamalicão0-4
LHFC Alverca1-3
LASporting CP0-2
LHCF Estrela Amadora2-3
LAVitória SC0-1
About this match
**Rio Ave's form is shaky but they're facing a team in genuine freefall** — CD Nacional have lost five straight and look thoroughly cooked. 🔴
Rio Ave wobbled too (1W, 3L in their last five), but they're **home, they've won the head-to-head edge historically**, and Nacional are leaking goals at will. Expect the hosts to dominate possession and clinical finishing.
Key storylines:
- **Rio Ave's midfield control**: T. Nikitscher and D. Nascimento face a Nacional side missing Matheus Dias (suspended) and struggling to retain the ball
- **CD Nacional's offensive void**: M. Jensen and P. Messias Cardozo need to create something from scraps or this gets ugly fast
- **Home advantage matters**: Rio Ave's last draw (3-3 vs Estrela) shows they can break down defenses at the Estádio do Rio Ave
Expected lineups:
- **Rio Ave**: E. Van Der Gouw, P. Amaral, F. Petrasso, A. Ndoj, G. Liavas, T. Nikitscher, D. Nascimento, T. Monteiro, M. Sellouki, D. Bezerra, J. Blesa
- **CD Nacional**: R. B. Marin, W. Kokolo, Zé Vitor, F. Gonçalves, Wesley Gasolina, F. Soares, M. Baeza, Liziero, D. Júnior, P. Messias Cardozo, M. Jensen
Prediction:
**Rio Ave 2-0 CD Nacional** — Nacional's wheels are off; Rio Ave should cruise. 🟢
Where to watch
Disney+
Sport TV1
Match facts
Stadium
Estádio do Rio Ave FC
City
Vila do Conde
Kickoff
11 Oct, 14:30 UTC
Competition
Liga Portugal Betclic
Highlights & clips
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
CD Nacional
32
V. Hugo
6.1
20
J. Tomé
5.1
5
A. Ndoj
6.7
39
G. Mancha
7.1
17
M. Vrousai
6.7
23
F. Petrasso
7.0
↑ 63'
54
G. Liavas
7.0
30
R. Galčík
6.7
↑ 63'
3
S. Garcia
6.5
↑ 76'
90
D. Nascimento
6.7
↑ 76'
9
T. Monteiro
6.6
↑ 78'
1
R. B. Marin
6.9
88
D. S. Brito
6.1
33
F. Gonçalves
6.9
38
Zé Vitor
6.4
21
W. Kokolo
5.9
8
M. Baeza
6.8
↑ 68'
31
D. Dongmo
5.8
17
F. Nava
6.2
↑ 68'
9
A. Obando
6.6
↑ 78'
11
S. Gavriel
6.6
↑ 81'
26
J. Silva
6.8
↑ 81'
Substitutes
99GE. Van Der Gouw
60DCaike
80MS. Clemmensen↓ 63'7.6
7MD. Bezerra↓ 76'7.3
19MM. Sellouki↓ 76'6.9
79MM. Patricío↓ 63'6.6
44MT. Nikitscher
8MRyan
70MA. Wenck
77MD. Špikić
11FJ. Blesa↓ 78'8.0
27FT. Medina
Coach: Vasco Seabra
Substitutes
13GJ. Gonçalves
14DI. Fernandes
12MM. Song↓ 81'7.0
10MD. Júnior↓ 68'6.8
20MM. Djaló↓ 78'6.7
15MC. Labidi↓ 68'6.6
2MD. d. L. Cruz
7MM. Jensen
29FA. K. Njoya↓ 81'8.3
Coach: Alexandre Santos
Top stats
56%Possession44%
1.66Expected goals (xG)1.21
11Total shots12
7Shots on target5
3Big chances4
8Corners8
Shots
0Shots off target6
4Blocked shots1
6Shots inside box8
5Shots outside box4
3Big chances scored2
0Big chances missed2
-0.89Goals prevented-0.41
Attack
22Touches in box19
62Final third entries38
0Offsides3
16Free kicks7
5Fouled in final third1
Passing
423Passes316
361Accurate passes244
30/56 (54%)Long balls15/48 (31%)
2/14 (14%)Crosses9/21 (43%)
22Throw-ins20
Duels
52Duels48
34/64 (53%)Ground duels30/64 (47%)
17/35 (49%)Aerial duels18/35 (51%)
6/17 (35%)Dribbles3/10 (30%)
9Dispossessed4
Defending
11Tackles20
45Tackles won65
8Interceptions9
27Clearances16
33Recoveries46
Discipline
7Fouls17
4Yellow cards0
1Red cards0
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
1Big saves1
8Goal kicks2
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 15 bookmakers
Who winsNacional to win (DNB) 51% · 2.50 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 55% · 1.70 @ Bet365
1X2Draw 29% · 2.10 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 61%
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 74% · 1.25 @ Bet365
BTTSBoth teams to score 53% · 1.75 @ Betway
1X2Rio Ave to win 45% · 2.75 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.67 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 1.33 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51%
1X2Nacional to win 26% · 4.00 @ Bet365
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.05
Rio Ave
3.20
Draw
3.50
CD Nacional
Double Chanceconsensus
1.29
Rio Ave or Draw
1.36
Rio Ave or CD Nacional
1.70
Draw or CD Nacional
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.72
Yes
2.00
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.07
Over 0.50
8.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.33
Over 1.50
3.25
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.10
Over 2.50
1.70
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.75
Over 3.50
1.25
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
8.00
Over 4.50
1.08
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.50
Rio Ave
2.45
CD Nacional
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.10
Over 10.50
1.67
Under 10.50
1X2 (1st Half)consensus
2.75
Rio Ave
2.10
Draw
4.00
CD Nacional
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
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