Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Alverca hosting Arouca in a straight-up midtable scrap** — both teams hovering around the thick of Liga Portugal with form good enough to nick three points on any given Saturday. 🔥
Alverca's riding a wave after dismantling Famalicão 4-1, though they got humbled 0-2 by Tondela last time out. Arouca's steadier, mixing wins and draws but just as prone to drama — they drew 2-2 with Sporting, so they've got bite. Head-to-head is split down the middle.
Key storylines:
- **Alverca's attack** (Figueiredo, D. Camara, V. Semedo) has flash but inconsistency; Arouca's compact 4-2-3-1 will ask tough questions on the counter.
- **Arouca's midfield engine** (T. Fukui, E. v. Ee, N. Djouahra) threads chances; **I. Barbero** will be the focal point up top against a Alverca backline that's leaked and shined in equal measure.
- **Home turf matters** — Alverca unbeaten at the Complexo Desportivo so far, but Arouca travels well.
Expected lineups:
- **FC Alverca**: M. Mendes, S. Baseya, Y. Bojang, S. Gómez, I. James, Chiquinho, Ian Luccas, Figueiredo, D. Camara, V. Semedo
- **FC Arouca**: I. de Arruabarrena, O. Lebedenko, J. Fontán, J. Sánchez, T. Esgaio, T. Fukui, E. v. Ee, N. Djouahra, H. Lee, A. Trezza, I. Barbero
Prediction:
**2-1 Alverca.** Slight edge to the hosts on home form, though this one stays tight.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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