Moreirense 2-1 CF Estrela Amadora: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Moreirense 2-1 CF Estrela Amadora.

90+8'

CF Estrela Amadora

Corner, CF Estrela Amadora.

90+5'

N. John

Goal! Moreirense 2-1 CF Estrela Amadora. N. John (Moreirense) scores, assisted by T. Andrade.

90+4'

CF Estrela Amadora

Offside, CF Estrela Amadora.

90+4'

CF Estrela Amadora

Offside, CF Estrela Amadora.

90+3'

Y. Maranhão

Attempt saved. Y. Maranhão (Moreirense), header. xG 0.03.

90+2'

Moreirense

Offside, Moreirense.

90'

7 minutes of added time.

90'

D. Pinto

Attempt missed. D. Pinto (Moreirense), header from a corner. xG 0.01.

89'

Moreirense

Corner, Moreirense.

88'

L. Antonetti

Attempt missed. L. Antonetti (CF Estrela Amadora), header from a corner. xG 0.12.

87'

T. Moustier

Attempt blocked. T. Moustier (CF Estrela Amadora), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.

87'

CF Estrela Amadora

Corner, CF Estrela Amadora.

86'

D. Pinto

Attempt blocked. D. Pinto (Moreirense), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.

83'

K. Jansson

Substitution, CF Estrela Amadora: T. Moustier comes on for K. Jansson.

83'

L. M. Davin

Substitution, CF Estrela Amadora: R. Soares comes on for L. M. Davin.

79'

M. Mendonça

Substitution, Moreirense: R. Alonso comes on for M. Mendonça.

75'

Moreirense

Offside, Moreirense.

68'

I. Stoica

Substitution, CF Estrela Amadora: J. Encada comes on for I. Stoica.

68'

Landerson

Substitution, Moreirense: S. Chipyoka comes on for Landerson.

68'

L. Vonić

Substitution, Moreirense: Y. Maranhão comes on for L. Vonić.

64'

N. John

Attempt blocked. N. John (Moreirense), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

63'

CF Estrela Amadora

Offside, CF Estrela Amadora.

57'

L. Zvonarek

Goal! Moreirense 1-1 CF Estrela Amadora. L. Zvonarek (CF Estrela Amadora) scores.

57'

M. Scholze

Attempt blocked. M. Scholze (CF Estrela Amadora), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

57'

K. Jansson

Attempt missed. K. Jansson (CF Estrela Amadora), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

55'

I. Stoica

Attempt blocked. I. Stoica (CF Estrela Amadora), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

50'

Landerson

Goal! Moreirense 1-0 CF Estrela Amadora. Landerson (Moreirense) scores, assisted by M. Mendonça.

47'

T. Andrade

Attempt missed. T. Andrade (Moreirense), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

46'

Moreirense

Corner, Moreirense.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Moreirense 0-0 CF Estrela Amadora.

45'

4 minutes of added time.

40'

CF Estrela Amadora

Corner, CF Estrela Amadora.

39'

Moreirense

Corner, Moreirense.

39'

T. Andrade

Attempt blocked. T. Andrade (Moreirense), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

36'

Kiko

Substitution, Moreirense: Á. Martínez comes on for Kiko.

34'

A. Marcus

Attempt blocked. A. Marcus (CF Estrela Amadora), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

29'

T. Andrade

Attempt missed. T. Andrade (Moreirense), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

27'

L. Antonetti

Attempt missed. L. Antonetti (CF Estrela Amadora), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

20'

M. Mendonça

Attempt saved. M. Mendonça (Moreirense), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.

19'

S. Serra

Yellow card for S. Serra (CF Estrela Amadora) for foul.

16'

CF Estrela Amadora

Corner, CF Estrela Amadora.

16'

I. Stoica

Attempt blocked. I. Stoica (CF Estrela Amadora), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

15'

I. Stoica

Attempt blocked. I. Stoica (CF Estrela Amadora), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

14'

N. John

Attempt blocked. N. John (Moreirense), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

12'

L. Antonetti

Attempt missed. L. Antonetti (CF Estrela Amadora), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.03.

1'

Kick-off: Moreirense vs CF Estrela Amadora.

Where the money is

159150 EUR matched · captured 4 days, 17 hours ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 83182 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

51.5%

-47.5 vs price

Draw 36.0 · implied 2.8%

39.9%

+37.1 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

10.2%

+10.1 vs price

Half time 12 EUR

Draw 2.28 · implied 43.9%

95.8%

+51.9 vs price

Away 3.2 · implied 31.2%

5.5%

-25.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 42181 EUR · live

Under 1.14 · implied 87.7%

57.6%

-30.1 vs price

Over 9.2 · implied 10.9%

42.4%

+31.6 vs price

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Player of the match

Match events

19' S. Serra · Foul

36' 🔁 Á. Martínez ◂ Kiko

Half-time · 0–0

50' ⚽ Landerson · assist M. Mendonça1–0

57' ⚽ L. Zvonarek1–1

68' 🔁 Y. Maranhão ◂ L. Vonić

68' 🔁 S. Chipyoka ◂ Landerson

68' 🔁 J. Encada ◂ I. Stoica

79' 🔁 R. Alonso ◂ M. Mendonça

83' 🔁 R. Soares ◂ L. M. Davin

83' 🔁 T. Moustier ◂ K. Jansson

Full-time · 2–1

90'⁺⁵ ⚽ N. John · assist T. Andrade2–1

Coaches

Vasco Costa

Pepa

Recent form

Moreirense

WAEstoril Praia3-1

LAAVS - Futebol SAD0-1

LHGil Vicente0-1

DAVitória SC1-1

WHCS Marítimo3-1

CF Estrela Amadora

LHCasa Pia0-2

WAAD Fazendense2-1

LAFC Arouca0-1

LHAcadémico Viseu FC0-2

DARio Ave3-3

About this match

**Moreirense host a struggling Estrela Amadora side looking to get back on track after a rough patch.** This is vintage Liga Portugal — mid-table dust-up with real stakes, even if the names don't jump out 📺

Moreirense's bounced back with a win after two straight defeats, while Estrela have lost three of their last five and need a spark badly. The home team's **form edge is real**, though consistency has been their bugbear all season.

Key storylines:

- **Moreirense's front three** — M. Mendonça, T. Andrade, and G. Liberato — need to make Estrela's shaky backline pay
- **Estrela's desperation factor**: a team in freefall can't afford another loss, which might make them scrappy and dangerous
- **Head-to-head tells the story**: Moreirense have dominated this fixture (4 wins in 9), setting expectation they should win at home

Expected lineups:

- **Moreirense**: A. Ferreira, Kiko, G. Batista, Maracás, D. Pinto, N. John, M. Mendonça, T. Andrade, G. Liberato, K. Bondoso, L. Vonić
- **CF Estrela Amadora**: L. Linck, R. Soares, Luan Patrick, S. Leković, M. Scholze, L. Zvonarek, E. Doué, I. Stoica, S. Serra, A. Marcus, L. Antonetti

Prediction:

**Moreirense 2–0 CF Estrela Amadora**

Home advantage and form give Moreirense a slight edge; Estrela look too fragile to trouble them here 🔵

Where to watch

V+ TVI

Match facts

Stadium

Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

City

Moreira de Cónegos

Referee

Joao Pedro Pinheiro

4.16 yellows/match · 70 matches

Kickoff

31 Oct, 15:30 UTC

Competition

Liga Portugal Betclic

Moreirense 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 CF Estrela Amadora

13 A. Ferreira 6.3 76 D. Pinto 66 G. Batista 7.8 4 K. Monteiro 7.5 17 Á. Martínez 6.5 ↑ 36' 23 N. John 8.1 65 G. Liberato 7.1 28 S. Chipyoka 6.4 ↑ 68' 21 R. Alonso 7.0 ↑ 79' 19 T. Andrade 7.0 99 Y. Maranhão 6.7 ↑ 68' 24 L. Linck 5.9 21 M. Scholze 6.1 30 Luan Patrick 6.9 5 S. Leković 6.7 55 R. Soares 6.2 ↑ 83' 28 T. Moustier 6.3 ↑ 83' 78 S. Serra 6.4 99 A. Marcus 7.0 14 L. Zvonarek 7.1 17 J. Encada 6.5 ↑ 68' 37 L. Antonetti 6.3

Substitutes

12GF. Sampaio 1GAranha 27DKiko↓ 36'6.6 26DMaracás 32DJanderson 2DL. Santos 7MM. Mendonça↓ 79'6.8 25MA. Assis 8MM. Stjepanović 11FLanderson↓ 68'7.3 79FL. Vonić↓ 68'6.4 89FA. Vieira

Coach: Vasco Costa

Substitutes

51GD. Pinto 22GD. Grilo 3DL. M. Davin↓ 83'6.5 4DB. Schappo 79DA. Chernev 6MK. Jansson↓ 83'6.7 71ME. P. Vanga 10FI. Stoica↓ 68'6.6 49FR. M. Muteba 72FH. Poniewas

Coach: Pepa

Top stats

53%Possession47%

0.44Expected goals (xG)0.68

11Total shots11

4Shots on target1

1Big chances1

3Corners3

Shots

3Shots off target4

4Blocked shots6

3Shots inside box9

8Shots outside box2

0Hit woodwork1

1Big chances scored1

-0.28Goals prevented-1.12

Attack

11Touches in box22

63Final third entries47

4Offsides3

15Free kicks10

3Fouled in final third0

Passing

424Passes386

357Accurate passes294

26/51 (51%)Long balls28/69 (41%)

2/14 (14%)Crosses4/11 (36%)

22Throw-ins24

Duels

50Duels49

40/81 (49%)Ground duels40/80 (50%)

20/38 (53%)Aerial duels18/38 (47%)

11/22 (50%)Dribbles7/16 (44%)

13Dispossessed6

Defending

15Tackles23

87Tackles won57

11Interceptions9

37Clearances23

51Recoveries52

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

4Goal kicks5

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers

Moreirense 33%

29%

Estrela Amadora 38%

1X2Estrela Amadora to win 38% · 2.75 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 71% · 1.33 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 59% · 1.69 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 29% · 2.40 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 52% · 1.15 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 74% · 1.28 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBoth teams to score 52% · 3.50 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 72% · 2.25 @ William Hill

CornersOver 8.5 corners 53% · 1.80 @ 1xBet

Who winsMoreirense to win (DNB) 54% · 2.10 @ Betsson

1X2Moreirense to win 33% · 3.28 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

3.00

Moreirense

3.23

Draw

2.40

CF Estrela Amadora

Double Chanceconsensus

1.53

Moreirense or Draw

1.30

Moreirense or CF Estrela Amadora

1.38

Draw or CF Estrela Amadora

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.80

Yes

1.92

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

5.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.20

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

8.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.35

Over 1.50

3.18

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.03

Over 2.50

1.77

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.75

Over 3.50

1.26

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

7.63

Over 4.50

1.08

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.05

Moreirense

1.70

CF Estrela Amadora

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.46

Over 7.50

2.48

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.75

Over 8.50

2.00

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.20

Over 9.50

1.61

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

3.00

Over 10.50

1.33

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

4.10

Over 11.50

1.17

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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