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Lucas González
Atlético Nacional
Millonarios
Atlético Nacional
4-2-3-1 · 5-3-2
Millonarios
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
125294 EUR · live
Home
46.0 · implied 2.2%
48.5%
+46.3 vs price
Draw
1.03 · implied 97.1%
30.8%
-66.3 vs price
Away
100.0 · implied 1.0%
20.7%
+19.7 vs price
Half time
6579 EUR · live
Away
50.0 · implied 2.0%
68.7%
+66.7 vs price
Home
890.0 · implied 0.1%
19.7%
+19.6 vs price
Draw
1.02 · implied 98.0%
11.5%
-86.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
272498 EUR · live
Under
1.04 · implied 96.2%
81.8%
-14.4 vs price
Over
26.0 · implied 3.8%
18.3%
+14.4 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
11812 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
95.4%
-3.6 vs price
Over
140.0 · implied 0.7%
4.6%
+3.9 vs price
14 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
15'
🔁
A. Sarmiento ◂ C. Arango
26'
F. Marin · Foul
39'
⚽
J. Angulo0–1
Half-time · 1–1
45'+3
⚽
A. Reyes · assist E. Cabrera1–1
46'
🔁
L. Castro ◂ J. Angulo
55'
J. Zapata · Foul
59'
S. Vega · Foul
60'
🔁
J. Rodríguez ◂ J. Zapata
67'
🔁
K. Parra ◂ M. Moreno
67'
🔁
D. M. Silva ◂ D. Ruiz
70'
L. Castro · Foul
82'
E. Cabrera · Foul
85'
A. Sarmiento · Violent conduct
85'
VAR
Card check · A. Sarmiento
88'
🔁
S. d. Castillo ◂ R. Ureña
Full-time · 1–1
Coaches
Lucas GonzálezAlberto Gamero 
Recent form
Atlético NacionalLALlaneros FC0-2
WAInternacional de Bogotá3-2
WHRionegro Águilas Doradas2-0
WHDeportivo Cali3-0
WAAlianza Valledupar FC5-1
MillonariosWHBoyacá Chicó FC3-0
WACúcuta Deportivo2-1
DHDeportivo Cali1-1
DADeportivo Pereira1-1
LAIndependiente Santa Fe2-3
About this match
**Atlético Nacional's home fortress meets Millonarios in a classic Colombian heavyweight clash** — and despite Nacional's bruised squad, they're the ones who look sharper right now. 📊
Nacional arrive on a **4-win streak** while Millonarios are muddling through draws and narrow escapes. The head-to-head is dead even over 28 games, but form tells the real story here.
Key storylines:
- **A. Morelos and J. Rosa** lead Nacional's lethal attack at home, where they've been ruthless lately
- **Millonarios' injury crisis** — five players out including key contributors — leaves them stretched thin in midfield and defense
- **F. Armani** between the sticks for Nacional will be tested by a Millonarios side that doesn't quit, even when dealing cards
Expected lineups:
- **Atlético Nacional**: F. Armani, W. Tesillo, M. Casco, A. Román, N. Parra, A. Sarmiento, M. Moreno, C. Arango, J. Rodríguez, J. Rosa, A. Morelos
- **Millonarios**: J. Burrai, S. Barreiro, S. Mosquera, A. Llinás, F. Chaverra, S. Valencia, R. Ureña, M. García, D. Ruiz
Prediction:
**Nacional 2–1 Millonarios**. Home advantage, form, and Millonarios' stretched squad tip this toward the green machine. 🟢
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Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
City
Medellin
Kickoff
25 Sep, 00:30 UTC
Competition
Categoría Primera A
Highlights & clips
Atlético Nacional
4-2-3-1 · 5-3-2
Millonarios
34
F. Armani
6.6
6
A. Román
6.3
3
N. Parra
6.9
15
A. Reyes
7.9
16
W. Tesillo
6.4
22
E. Cabrera
7.8
26
F. Marin
6.4
99
I. Poveda
6.3
23
J. Rodríguez
6.8
↑ 60'
30
K. Parra
6.6
↑ 67'
29
A. Sarmiento
6.7
↑ 15'
1
J. Burrai
6.3
2
C. Sarabia
6.4
4
S. Barreiro
7.0
6
S. Mosquera
20
D. Banguero
6.5
13
F. Chaverra
6.2
23
L. Castro
6.4
↑ 46'
28
S. Vega
6.4
30
S. d. Castillo
6.7
↑ 88'
14
D. M. Silva
6.4
↑ 67'
11
A. Estupiñán
6.7
Substitutes
25GL. Marquinez
27DY. Perlaza
20DM. Casco
31DX. Rios
4DC. Haydar
7MM. Moreno↓ 67'6.7
80MJ. Zapata↓ 60'6.4
17FC. Arango↓ 15'6.5
24FJ. Rosa
Coach: Lucas González
Substitutes
12GJ. Aguirre
22DS. Valencia
26DA. Llinás
17DJ. Arias
3DS. Martín
24MJ. Angulo↓ 46'7.2
18MR. Ureña↓ 88'6.9
10MD. Ruiz↓ 67'6.3
19MM. García
Coach: Alberto Gamero
Top stats
59%Possession41%
0.99Expected goals (xG)0.54
13Total shots4
3Shots on target3
3Corners2
Shots
9Shots off target1
1Blocked shots0
5Shots inside box4
8Shots outside box0
2Hit woodwork0
-0.04Goals prevented-0.19
Attack
15Touches in box7
41Final third entries62
1Offsides2
17Free kicks16
6Fouled in final third4
Passing
388Passes270
322Accurate passes191
18/39 (46%)Long balls22/63 (35%)
2/13 (15%)Crosses2/11 (18%)
23Throw-ins23
Duels
51Duels49
31/59 (53%)Ground duels28/59 (47%)
4/9 (44%)Aerial duels5/9 (56%)
7/11 (64%)Dribbles1/5 (20%)
8Dispossessed2
Defending
7Tackles12
43Tackles won42
5Interceptions6
18Clearances15
27Recoveries29
Discipline
16Fouls17
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
6Goal kicks12
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
Who winsAtl. Nacional to win (DNB) 72% · 1.37 @ Unibet
CornersOver 9.5 corners 54% · 1.88 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 66% · 1.51 @ 1xBet
1X2Atl. Nacional to win 54% · 2.10 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 4.00 @ William Hill
BTTSBoth teams to score 55% · 3.25 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 77% · 2.00 @ William Hill
1X2Draw 25% · 2.64 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 69% · 1.44 @ betfair
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 57% · 1.50 @ 1xBet
1X2Millonarios to win 21% · 4.42 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.71
Atlético Nacional
3.68
Draw
4.39
Millonarios
Double Chanceconsensus
1.20
Atlético Nacional or Draw
1.23
Atlético Nacional or Millonarios
2.05
Draw or Millonarios
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.65
Yes
2.10
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
11.70
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.20
Over 1.50
4.18
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.71
Over 2.50
2.06
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.73
Over 3.50
1.42
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.17
Over 4.50
1.15
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.32
Atlético Nacional
3.10
Millonarios
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.25
Over 7.50
3.28
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.51
Over 8.50
2.35
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.87
Over 9.50
1.83
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.37
Over 10.50
1.50
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.20
Over 11.50
1.26
Under 11.50
1X2 (1st Half)consensus
2.23
Atlético Nacional
2.25
Draw
4.55
Millonarios
1X2 (2nd Half)consensus
2.10
Atlético Nacional
2.60
Draw
4.33
Millonarios
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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