Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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**Earthquakes look to break Houston's stranglehold** — these two drew their last matchup 0-0, and San Jose's desperate for a home win with Houston owning the H2H advantage big time. 🔥
San Jose's been streaky (1W-2D-2L lately), while Houston just bounced back with a 2-1 win over Real Salt Lake. The Dynamo's got defensive steel, but **injuries are piling up on both sides** — San Jose especially hurting with Johnson, Jones, Edwards Jr, Tsakiris, and Adimabua all out.
Key storylines:
- **B. Kikanović** leads the San Jose attack at home and needs to break through a Houston backline missing M. Saracchi
- **H. Herrera** has been Houston's focal point; expect the Dynamo to hit on the counter in their usual 4-2-3-1 shape
- San Jose's midfield pairing of **B. Leroux and P. Marie** will need to control possession to limit Houston's transition threat
Expected lineups:
- **San Jose Earthquakes**: A. Gunn, D. Munie, R. Roberts, J. Ricketts, P. Marie, B. Leroux, O. Bouda, B. Kikanović
- **Houston Dynamo**: J. Bond, L. Halter, A. Resch, F. Negri, L. Ennali, Artur, M. Bogusz, H. Herrera
Prediction:
**San Jose 1–1 Houston**. Home turf gives the Earthquakes a slight edge, but Houston's defensive discipline and H2H form suggest another stalemate.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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