Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**The Earthquakes and Rapids are both limping into this one**, but San Jose's home turf at PayPal Park could be the difference-maker in what shapes up as a slugfest between two injury-ravaged sides. 🏟️
Both teams are treading water with identical 1W–3D–1L records over their last five, leaning heavily on draws to stay afloat. San Jose have been passive at home (1-1 v Nashville, 1-1 v RSL), while Colorado managed one clean sheet at home but otherwise flatlined. The head-to-head tilts San Jose's way — **15 wins vs Colorado's 12 in 42 meetings** — but that's cold comfort when both benches are decimated.
Key storylines:
- **San Jose's midfield shuffle** around E. Löwen and B. Leroux will need to control tempo against a Colorado side missing I. Sadiq and other depth
- **P. Marie and P. Judd** in the front two for the Quakes have to make chances count with limited service from a stretched backline
- Colorado's defense, led by **R. Holding**, faces a stiff test adapting to a new shape without A. Fadal and R. Cannon providing solidity
Expected lineups:
- **San Jose Earthquakes**: A. Gunn, D. Romney, D. Munie, R. Roberts, J. Ricketts, B. Leroux, E. Löwen, R. Vieira, P. Marie, P. Judd, L. Jovanovic
- **Colorado Rapids**: N. Defreitas-Hansen, M. Navarro, R. Holding, L. Williams, K. Rosenberry, P. Aaronson, W. Frederick, M. Whittaker, D. Phillip, D. Yapi, S. A. Farchi
Prediction:
**San Jose 1-1 Colorado** — both teams have the attack to trouble each other but lack the fluidity to close it out. Home edge favors a draw rather than a dagger. ⚽
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
Report a data issue
Spotted something wrong on this match? Tell us what and we'll fix it.