USA 1-0 Canada: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 7, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. USA 1-0 Canada.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

85'

L. D. Fougerolles

Attempt missed. L. D. Fougerolles (Canada), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.09.

79'

P. David

Attempt missed. P. David (Canada), header. xG 0.08.

75'

Canada

Corner, Canada.

74'

M. Tillman

Substitution, USA: N. Pierre comes on for M. Tillman.

74'

A. Trusty

Substitution, USA: A. Robinson comes on for A. Trusty.

74'

G. Campbell

Substitution, USA: A. Mehmeti comes on for G. Campbell.

72'

J. Shaffelburg

Substitution, Canada: P. David comes on for J. Shaffelburg.

71'

J. Hall

Attempt missed. J. Hall (USA), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

71'

S. Berhalter

Attempt blocked. S. Berhalter (USA), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

71'

M. Tillman

Yellow card for M. Tillman (USA) for foul.

66'

Canada

Corner, Canada.

66'

L. Millar

Substitution, Canada: J. Russell Rowe comes on for L. Millar.

65'

T. Oluwaseyi

Substitution, Canada: D. Jebbison comes on for T. Oluwaseyi.

63'

L. D. Fougerolles

Attempt saved. L. D. Fougerolles (Canada), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.07.

61'

M. Albert

Substitution, USA: C. Campbell comes on for M. Albert.

61'

B. Raines

Substitution, USA: T. Adams comes on for B. Raines.

58'

J. David

Yellow card for J. David (Canada) for foul.

57'

Canada

Corner, Canada.

56'

Canada

Corner, Canada.

54'

Canada

Corner, Canada.

49'

Canada

Corner, Canada.

48'

Canada

Corner, Canada.

47'

Canada

Offside, Canada.

47'

USA

Offside, USA.

46'

S. Eustaquio

Substitution, Canada: M. Choinière comes on for S. Eustaquio.

46'

G. Reyna

Substitution, USA: S. Berhalter comes on for G. Reyna.

46'

Y. Musah

Substitution, USA: S. Dest comes on for Y. Musah.

46'

J. Ellis

Substitution, USA: J. Hall comes on for J. Ellis.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. USA 1-0 Canada.

45+3'

A. Freeman

Attempt missed. A. Freeman (USA), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.11.

45+3'

USA

Corner, USA.

45+1'

USA

Corner, USA.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

45'

USA

Corner, USA.

44'

USA

Corner, USA.

40'

G. Reyna

Yellow card for G. Reyna (USA) for foul.

39'

Canada

Offside, Canada.

35'

S. Eustaquio

Attempt saved. S. Eustaquio (Canada), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

31'

T. Oluwaseyi

Yellow card for T. Oluwaseyi (Canada) for foul.

29'

A. Freeman

Attempt missed. A. Freeman (USA), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

29'

J. Ellis

Goal! USA 1-0 Canada. J. Ellis (USA) scores, assisted by A. Freeman.

16'

J. Shaffelburg

Attempt saved. J. Shaffelburg (Canada), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

13'

L. Millar

Attempt missed. L. Millar (Canada), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

12'

Canada

Corner, Canada.

10'

T. Oluwaseyi

Attempt missed. T. Oluwaseyi (Canada), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

1'

Kick-off: USA vs Canada.

Where the money is

338552 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 123943 EUR · live

Home 1.02 · implied 98.0%

84.6%

-13.4 vs price

Draw 21.0 · implied 4.8%

8.5%

+3.7 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

7.0%

+6.9 vs price

Half time 662 EUR · live

Away 4.9 · implied 20.4%

43.8%

+23.4 vs price

Draw 2.52 · implied 39.7%

37.5%

-2.2 vs price

Home 2.78 · implied 36.0%

18.4%

-17.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 83524 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

69.3%

-29.7 vs price

Over 110.0 · implied 0.9%

30.7%

+29.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 1971 EUR · live

Under 1.09 · implied 91.7%

94.5%

+2.7 vs price

Over 7.4 · implied 13.5%

5.5%

-8.0 vs price

15 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

29' ⚽ J. Ellis · assist A. Freeman1–0

31' T. Oluwaseyi · Foul

40' G. Reyna · Foul

Half-time · 1–0

46' 🔁 J. Hall ◂ J. Ellis

46' 🔁 S. Dest ◂ Y. Musah

46' 🔁 S. Berhalter ◂ G. Reyna

46' 🔁 M. Choinière ◂ S. Eustaquio

58' J. David · Foul

61' 🔁 T. Adams ◂ B. Raines

61' 🔁 C. Campbell ◂ M. Albert

65' 🔁 D. Jebbison ◂ T. Oluwaseyi

66' 🔁 J. Russell Rowe ◂ L. Millar

71' M. Tillman · Foul

72' 🔁 P. David ◂ J. Shaffelburg

74' 🔁 A. Mehmeti ◂ G. Campbell

74' 🔁 A. Robinson ◂ A. Trusty

74' 🔁 N. Pierre ◂ M. Tillman

Full-time · 1–0

Coaches

Mauricio Pochettino

Jesse Marsch

Recent form

USA

WHMexico3-0

WHChile4-2

WHPeru4-1

LHBelgium1-4

WHBosnia & Herzegovina2-0

Canada

WHPeru2-0

WHChile1-0

LHMorocco0-3

WASouth Africa1-0

LASwitzerland1-2

About this match

**The US rolls into Minnesota looking to keep the good times rolling**, while Canada arrives short-staffed and desperate to snap an ugly run. This friendly has edge written all over it 🔥

USA have been **absolutely clinical at home** — 4 wins in their last 5 with double-digit goals scored. Canada, meanwhile, just got hammered 3-0 by Morocco and are missing five rotation players to injury. On paper, this screams one-sided.

Key storylines:

- **USA's home fortress** continues to impose its will — they've scored at least 3 in three straight at Allianz Field
- **Canada's injury crisis** strips depth across the backline and midfield, forcing makeshift combinations
- **H2H dead even in recent memory** — 13 meetings shows these teams know each other, but form says USA pulls away

Expected lineups:

- **USA**: M. Freese, A. Freeman, A. Robinson, C. Richards, S. Dest, M. Tillman, T. Adams, J. Hall, S. Berhalter, J. Ellis, D. Downs
- **Canada**: M. Crépeau, R. Laryea, L. D. Fougerolles, J. Waterman, N. Sigur, J. Shaffelburg, S. Eustaquio, N. Saliba, T. Buchanan, J. David, T. Oluwaseyi

Prediction:

**USA 3–0 Canada**

US control this from the whistle and punish a thin Canucks squad.

Where to watch

Disney+ Premium Argentina

Match facts

Stadium

Allianz Field

City

St. Paul

Referee

Steven Madrigal

Kickoff

07 Oct, 00:00 UTC

Competition

International Friendly Games

Highlights & clips

USA 4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2 Canada

28 B. Schwake 7.3 16 A. Freeman 7.2 20 N. Pierre 6.8 ↑ 74' 3 C. Richards 6.8 5 A. Robinson 6.5 ↑ 74' 2 S. Dest 6.5 ↑ 46' 4 T. Adams 6.5 ↑ 61' 14 S. Berhalter 6.3 ↑ 46' 26 A. Mehmeti 6.5 ↑ 74' 23 C. Campbell 6.7 ↑ 61' 19 J. Hall 6.4 ↑ 46' 1 D. St. Clair 6.5 23 N. Sigur 6.7 4 L. D. Fougerolles 7.1 3 R. Priso 6.4 22 R. Laryea 6.6 21 J. Russell Rowe 6.6 ↑ 66' 25 N. Saliba 6.1 6 M. Choinière 7.2 ↑ 46' 24 P. David 6.5 ↑ 72' 10 J. David 6.1 26 D. Jebbison 6.7 ↑ 65'

Top stats

51%Possession49%

1.03Expected goals (xG)0.33

5Total shots7

1Shots on target3

2Big chances1

4Corners8

Shots

3Shots off target4

1Blocked shots0

4Shots inside box3

1Shots outside box4

1Big chances scored0

1Big chances missed1

Attack

8Touches in box16

34Final third entries51

1Offsides2

21Free kicks22

3Fouled in final third8

Passing

400Passes367

309Accurate passes266

15/51 (29%)Long balls20/46 (43%)

1/5 (20%)Crosses3/23 (13%)

16Throw-ins26

Duels

46Duels54

37/75 (49%)Ground duels38/75 (51%)

5/17 (29%)Aerial duels12/17 (71%)

6/17 (35%)Dribbles2/7 (29%)

4Dispossessed6

Defending

11Tackles15

82Tackles won80

10Interceptions11

28Clearances8

39Recoveries48

Discipline

22Fouls21

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

10Goal kicks3

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

USA 53%

24%

Canada 22%

1X2USA to win 53% · 2.10 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 59% · 3.60 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 59% · 2.90 @ William Hill

CornersOver 9.5 corners 51% · 2.03 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 63% · 1.65 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 80% · 1.85 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 24% · 2.84 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 61% · 1.51 @ Pinnacle

Who winsUSA to win (DNB) 52% · 1.38 @ Betway

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 64% · 1.64 @ 1xBet

1X2Canada to win 22% · 4.50 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.75

USA

3.80

Draw

4.00

Canada

Double Chanceconsensus

1.20

USA or Draw

1.22

USA or Canada

2.06

Draw or Canada

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.53

Yes

2.30

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.10

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

9.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

15.25

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.15

Over 1.50

4.84

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.54

Over 2.50

2.38

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.44

Over 3.50

1.54

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.33

Over 4.50

1.19

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.33

USA

3.00

Canada

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.31

Over 7.50

2.87

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.61

Over 8.50

2.17

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.99

Over 9.50

1.73

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.46

Over 10.50

1.46

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.12

Over 11.50

1.23

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Over 1.5 goals

✗

80% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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