Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match events
45'
⚽
0–0
46'
🔁
D. Kerr ◂ O. Brynhildsen
50'
K. Thompson
60'
🔁
G. Flores ◂ T. Hadebe
61'
🔁
D. Yedlin ◂ L. Engel
61'
🔁
Evander ◂ L. Orellano
66'
Evander
70'
⚽
Evander
73'
⚽
K. Denkey (pen)1–0
74'
🔁
S. Santos ◂ K. Denkey
74'
🔁
L. Stefanovic ◂ T. Spicer
74'
🔁
A. Coello ◂ D. Flores
74'
🔁
T. Corbeanu ◂ N. Gomis
84'
🔁
O. Nwobodo ◂ C. Baird
85'
🔁
D. Etienne ◂ Z. Monlouis
87'
⚽
Y. Kubo · assist Evander2–0
89'
A. Powell
90'
⚽
2–0
90'
⚽
Coaches
Pat NoonanRobin Fraser 
Recent form
FC CincinnatiLPhiladelphia Union4-1FC Cincinnati
WFC Cincinnati1-0New York Red Bulls
Toronto FCLOrlando City SC4-2Toronto FC
DDC United2-2Toronto FC
Match facts
Stadium
TQL Stadium
City
Cincinnati
Referee
Ismir Pekmic
Kickoff
09 Mar, 00:30 UTC
Competition
MLS
FC Cincinnati
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3
Toronto FC
18
R. Celentano
7.0
2
A. Powell
7.0
12
M. Robinson
7.3
16
T. Hadebe
7.0
29
L. Engel
7.1
27
T. Anunga
7.7
20
P. Bucha
7.1
23
L. Orellano
7.3
7
Y. Kubo
7.5
11
C. Baird
6.5
9
K. Denkey
7.4
1
S. Johnson
7.8
6
K. Thompson
6.6
12
Z. Monlouis
6.7
5
K. Long
6.7
15
N. Gomis
6.5
8
M. Longstaff
6.9
20
D. Flores
6.5
21
J. Osorio
6.5
10
F. Bernardeschi
6.6
9
O. Brynhildsen
6.8
16
T. Spicer
6.8
56%Possession44%
1.64Expected goals (xG)0.25
12Total shots6
7Shots on target1
3Big chances0
5Corners4
10Fouls8
2Yellow cards1