Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**NEC's European campaign just hit a pothole, but they've got a golden chance to bounce back at home against a Levski side that's been quietly decent.** 🔥 The Dutch outfit is winless in five (three draws, two losses), capped off by that humbling 0-5 thrashing in Turin. Levski, meanwhile, rolls in on the back of three wins in their last five—including a clean sheet at home versus Red Bull Salzburg—and they're clearly no pushovers.
Form suggests this is **NEC's game to lose**, but they'll need to tighten up after leaking goals all over the place lately. Levski's defensive stability could be the spoiler here.
Key storylines:
- **NEC's attack** (Thomas, Linssen, Chery) has to click at home; the midfield rebuild without Nuytinck and Bischoff is a test
- **Levski's backline** (Centelles, Dimitrov, Makoun) has been solid on the road and won't roll over
- **Geiger and Tadić** need to control tempo in midfield for Nijmegen or this gets messy
Expected lineups:
- **NEC Nijmegen**: Crettaz, Fonville, Storm, Brás, Tadić, Geiger, Lebreton, Nejašmić, Thomas, Linssen, Chery
- **Levski Sofia**: Vutsov, Centelles, Dimitrov, Makoun, Aldair, Serginho, Trdin, Reinaldo, Soula, Perea, Bala
Prediction:
**NEC 2–0 Levski** — home form + attacking depth edge out a resilient but limited visitor. 📊
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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