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Pierre Sage
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough
Crystal Palace
5-4-1 · 4-2-3-1
Middlesbrough
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
239664 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
75.1%
-23.9 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
18.2%
+18.1 vs price
Draw
700.0 · implied 0.1%
6.7%
+6.6 vs price
Half time
324 EUR
Draw
2.54 · implied 39.4%
51.6%
+12.2 vs price
Home
3.05 · implied 32.8%
48.2%
+15.4 vs price
Away
0.0%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
26753 EUR · live
Under
2.42 · implied 41.3%
65.5%
+24.2 vs price
Over
1.69 · implied 59.2%
34.5%
-24.7 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
1173 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
92.2%
-6.8 vs price
Over
60.0 · implied 1.7%
7.8%
+6.1 vs price
15 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
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Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
37'
⚽
J. Larsen · assist Ó. Mingueza1–0
Half-time · 1–0
46'
🔁
N. Borges ◂ S. Byram
53'
⚽
J. Larsen · assist B. Chilwell2–0
59'
🔁
A. Wharton ◂ Q. Timber
59'
🔁
D. Kamada ◂ D. Osorio
65'
A. Malanda · Foul
67'
🔁
W. Lankshear ◂ D. Strelec
67'
🔁
L. Castledine ◂ T. Conway
72'
⚽
D. Kamada · assist J. Larsen3–0
73'
🔁
J. Lerma ◂ A. Disasi
73'
🔁
D. McNeil ◂ Y. Pino
73'
🔁
Z. Gozo ◂ J. Larsen
77'
🔁
A. Phillips ◂ A. Malanda
83'
M. Peart-Harris · Foul
84'
🔁
R. Pukštas ◂ A. Morris
Full-time · 3–0
Coaches
Pierre SageKim Hellberg 
Recent form
Crystal PalaceWAFulham3-2
LHManchester City1-4
LAEverton0-2
LASC Freiburg0-3
WAFulham2-1
MiddlesbroughWAQueens Park Rangers1-0
DABurnley1-1
WHWest Bromwich Albion3-1
WADoncaster Rovers3-1
LABlackburn Rovers1-2
About this match
**Palace's season is chaos, Boro's quietly humming — and this Carabao Cup clash could go either way.** 🏆 One side's lurching between brilliant and brutal; the other's built proper momentum.
Palace have won two of their last five but look gassed after that Manchester City hammering. Middlesbrough, meanwhile, are on a three-win run and looking lean and hungry. The visitors smell opportunity here.
Key storylines:
- **Crystal Palace's injury crisis** — Mateta, Sarr, Riad, and Gozo all out. Depth is getting tested hard.
- **Middlesbrough's form edge** — Three wins in five, including a thumping of West Brom. Momentum matters in cup knockouts.
- **Palace's home record** — They've lost their last two at Selhurst; Boro won't be intimidated by the noise.
Expected lineups:
- **Crystal Palace**: Henderson, Sosa, Canvot, Richards, Tomiyasu, Mitchell, Kamada, Wharton, Pino, Nketiah, Esse
- **Middlesbrough**: Vítek, Borges, Malanda, Jones, Ayling, Kanté, Arfsten, Morris, Cartwright, Brittain, Lankshear
Prediction:
**Middlesbrough 2–1 Crystal Palace.** Boro's rolling, Palace's squad is stretched thin — slight lean to the visitors here.
Where to watch
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Viaplay
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Sky Sports+
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Viaplay
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Sky Sports+
Startimes Sports Premium
Startimes Sports Premium
beIN Sports 3
Arena Sport 3 SRB
Startimes Sports Premium
Startimes Sports Premium
Viaplay
Arena Sport 3 SRB
Startimes Sports Premium
Viaplay
Nova Sport 2
Startimes Sports Premium
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Startimes Sports Premium
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Match facts
Stadium
Selhurst Park
City
London
Kickoff
08 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Competition
Carabao Cup
Highlights & clips
Crystal Palace
5-4-1 · 4-2-3-1
Middlesbrough
44
W. Benítez
7.2
30
Ó. Mingueza
7.7
17
T. Tomiyasu
7.3
8
J. Lerma
6.7
↑ 73'
21
H. Ahanor
8.2
33
B. Chilwell
7.8
18
D. Kamada
8.0
↑ 59'
20
A. Wharton
6.8
↑ 59'
19
W. Hughes
7.7
12
Z. Gozo
6.5
↑ 73'
11
D. McNeil
6.7
↑ 73'
31
S. Brynn
6.9
2
C. Brittain
6.7
12
L. Ayling
6.1
5
A. Jones
5.8
30
N. Borges
5.9
↑ 46'
21
R. Pukštas
6.3
↑ 84'
4
A. Phillips
6.7
↑ 77'
11
A. Cozier-Duberry
6.1
14
M. Peart-Harris
6.2
19
L. Castledine
6.1
↑ 67'
7
W. Lankshear
6.3
↑ 67'
Substitutes
31GR. Matthews
5DA. Disasi↓ 73'7.3
24MD. Osorio↓ 59'6.8
23MQ. Timber↓ 59'6.8
3MT. Mitchell
25MA. Khalaili
22FJ. Larsen↓ 73'9.6
10FY. Pino↓ 73'7.3
29FE. Guessand
Coach: Pierre Sage
Substitutes
1GR. Vítek
3DS. Byram↓ 46'6.2
29DA. Malanda↓ 77'5.9
10MA. Morris↓ 84'7.7
6MS. Berhalter
17MM. Arfsten
8MC. Barron
13FD. Strelec↓ 67'6.8
9FT. Conway↓ 67'6.4
Coach: Kim Hellberg
Top stats
41%Possession59%
0.95Expected goals (xG, estimated)1.07
8Total shots16
5Shots on target4
2Big chances1
1Corners6
Shots
1Shots off target6
2Blocked shots6
4Shots inside box9
4Shots outside box7
2Big chances scored0
0Big chances missed1
Attack
9Touches in box52
31Final third entries62
2Offsides3
11Free kicks10
0Fouled in final third3
Passing
415Passes600
343Accurate passes539
19/43 (44%)Long balls22/40 (55%)
3/5 (60%)Crosses4/17 (24%)
13Throw-ins12
Duels
61Duels39
49/81 (60%)Ground duels32/81 (40%)
10/15 (67%)Aerial duels5/15 (33%)
5/7 (71%)Dribbles14/32 (44%)
6Dispossessed16
Defending
34Tackles8
53Tackles won75
5Interceptions7
37Clearances4
48Recoveries55
Discipline
10Fouls11
0Yellow cards2
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
1Big saves1
11Goal kicks3
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
Who winsMiddlesbrough to win (DNB) 61% · 3.00 @ Bet365
1X2Crystal Palace to win 54% · 2.07 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 59% · 3.60 @ William Hill
BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.80 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 80% · 1.86 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.67 @ betfair
1X2Draw 24% · 2.85 @ Unibet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.50 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51% · 1.82 @ 1xBet
1X2Middlesbrough to win 22% · 4.19 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 62% · 1.54 @ Unibet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.75
Crystal Palace
3.90
Draw
4.33
Middlesbrough
Double Chanceconsensus
1.22
Crystal Palace or Draw
1.23
Crystal Palace or Middlesbrough
2.07
Draw or Middlesbrough
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.52
Yes
2.40
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
2.95
YES
1.35
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
5.50
YES
1.11
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.42
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
8.00
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.01
Over 0.50
14.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.17
Over 1.50
4.64
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.60
Over 2.50
2.30
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.45
Over 3.50
1.51
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.45
Over 4.50
1.19
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.40
Crystal Palace
2.75
Middlesbrough
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.33
Over 7.50
3.05
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.57
Over 8.50
2.29
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.95
Over 9.50
1.79
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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