Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 Iwaki FC: Stats & xG – Oct 7, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 Iwaki FC.

81'

S. Nakajima

Substitution, Iwaki FC: N. Kumata comes on for S. Nakajima.

80'

R. Nishitani

Attempt missed. R. Nishitani (Iwaki FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

77'

S. Kobayashi

Attempt missed. S. Kobayashi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), header. xG 0.26.

77'

K. Hayao

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: H. Ota comes on for K. Hayao.

73'

K. Fujii

Yellow card for K. Fujii (Iwaki FC).

71'

S. Kobayashi

Attempt saved. S. Kobayashi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

69'

S. Kobayashi

Goal! Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 Iwaki FC. S. Kobayashi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) scores.

66'

S. Ayukawa

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: R. Noguchi comes on for S. Ayukawa.

64'

I. Konno

Substitution, Iwaki FC: Y. Takahashi comes on for I. Konno.

64'

A. Yamanaka

Substitution, Iwaki FC: Y. Michiwaki comes on for A. Yamanaka.

64'

J. Seo-Ho

Substitution, Iwaki FC: K. Fujii comes on for J. Seo-Ho.

62'

A. Suzuki

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: S. Haller comes on for A. Suzuki.

62'

M. Naoki

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: S. Kobayashi comes on for M. Naoki.

59'

K. Hayao

Attempt saved. K. Hayao (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot. xG 0.24.

57'

R. Hisanaga

Attempt missed. R. Hisanaga (Iwaki FC), left-footed shot. xG 0.19.

54'

M. Araki

Substitution, Iwaki FC: R. Nishitani comes on for M. Araki.

51'

S. Ayukawa

Attempt saved. S. Ayukawa (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot. xG 0.15.

48'

M. Naoki

Attempt blocked. M. Naoki (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), left-footed shot. xG 0.26.

48'

A. Suzuki

Goal! Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 Iwaki FC. A. Suzuki (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) scores.

46'

Y. Nakajima

Substitution, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: T. Matsumoto comes on for Y. Nakajima.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Iwaki FC.

44'

A. Yamanaka

Yellow card for A. Yamanaka (Iwaki FC).

42'

Y. Nakajima

Yellow card for Y. Nakajima (Sanfrecce Hiroshima).

38'

S. Nakajima

Attempt saved. S. Nakajima (Iwaki FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.25.

38'

R. Nagaki

Attempt blocked. R. Nagaki (Iwaki FC), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.01.

37'

K. Hayao

Yellow card for K. Hayao (Sanfrecce Hiroshima).

34'

A. Suzuki

Attempt blocked. A. Suzuki (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), right-footed shot. xG 0.17.

33'

A. Yamanaka

Attempt blocked. A. Yamanaka (Iwaki FC), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

32'

T. Kato

Attempt saved. T. Kato (Iwaki FC), header. xG 0.21.

25'

A. Yamanaka

Attempt saved. A. Yamanaka (Iwaki FC), header. xG 0.08.

22'

A. Suzuki

Goal! Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Iwaki FC. A. Suzuki (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) scores.

18'

A. Naoto

Attempt missed. A. Naoto (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

9'

S. Ayukawa

Goal! Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 Iwaki FC. S. Ayukawa (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) scores.

4'

S. Nakajima

Attempt saved. S. Nakajima (Iwaki FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.16.

1'

Kick-off: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki FC.

Where the money is

144650 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks, 2 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 38650 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

96.9%

-2.1 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

2.0%

+1.9 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

1.1%

+1.0 vs price

Half time 5696 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

98.4%

-0.6 vs price

Away 70.0 · implied 1.4%

1.1%

-0.3 vs price

Draw 11.0 · implied 9.1%

0.5%

-8.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 28010 EUR · live

Over 1.18 · implied 84.7%

87.6%

+2.8 vs price

Under 6.6 · implied 15.2%

12.6%

-2.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 684 EUR

Under 1.25 · implied 80.0%

90.4%

+10.4 vs price

Over 5.0 · implied 20.0%

9.4%

-10.6 vs price

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Match events

9' ⚽ S. Ayukawa1–0

22' ⚽ A. Suzuki2–0

37' K. Hayao

42' Y. Nakajima

44' A. Yamanaka

Half-time · 2–0

46' 🔁 T. Matsumoto ◂ Y. Nakajima

48' ⚽ A. Suzuki3–0

54' 🔁 R. Nishitani ◂ M. Araki

62' 🔁 S. Kobayashi ◂ M. Naoki

62' 🔁 S. Haller ◂ A. Suzuki

64' 🔁 K. Fujii ◂ J. Seo-Ho

64' 🔁 Y. Michiwaki ◂ A. Yamanaka

64' 🔁 Y. Takahashi ◂ I. Konno

66' 🔁 R. Noguchi ◂ S. Ayukawa

69' ⚽ S. Kobayashi4–0

73' K. Fujii

77' 🔁 H. Ota ◂ K. Hayao

81' 🔁 N. Kumata ◂ S. Nakajima

Full-time · 4–0

Coaches

Bartosch Gaul

Yuzo Tamura

Recent form

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

WAAvispa Fukuoka1-0

WHCerezo Osaka6-1

LAFagiano Okayama2-3

WHNagoya Grampus3-0

DAGamba Osaka0-0

Iwaki FC

WHOita Trinita2-0

WAAC Nagano Parceiro3-1

LHBlaublitz Akita1-2

LASanfrecce Hiroshima0-4

WABlaublitz Akita2-0

About this match

**Sanfrecce Hiroshima rolls into the Emperor Cup Round 3 as the clear favorites**, but Iwaki FC won't be a pushover after a solid run of their own. 🏆

Hiroshima are humming — three wins in their last five with that ridiculous 6-1 demolition of Cerezo Osaka still fresh. Iwaki have matched that win tally but come off a loss to Blaublitz Akita, so momentum tilts hard toward the visitors' credentials here.

Key storylines:

- **Sanfrecce's attacking depth** with K. Hayao and Y. Nakajima pulling strings in midfield should carve open Iwaki's back line
- Iwaki's D. Yamaguchi and R. Nishitani need to stay compact and avoid getting pulled apart like Cerezo did
- **A. Naoto and M. Kato** spearheading Hiroshima's press gives them a ruthlessness Iwaki haven't faced at this intensity

Expected lineups:

- **Sanfrecce Hiroshima**: I. Ouchi, H. Shunki, H. Araki, S. Sasaki, K. Hayao, Y. Nakajima, M. Kato, A. Naoto
- **Iwaki FC**: H. Joo, R. Endo, S. Fukaminato, T. Kuwata, S. Kofie, D. Yamaguchi, R. Nishitani, T. Kato

Prediction:

**Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–1 Iwaki FC**

Hiroshima's class shows through in a cup tie that gets fairly comfortable by the hour mark. ⚽

Match facts

Kickoff

07 Oct, 09:30 UTC

Competition

Emperor Cup

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1 Iwaki FC

99 I. Ouchi 5 A. Naoto 4 H. Araki 7 H. Shunki 32 S. Koshimichi 48 H. Ota ↑ 77' 14 T. Matsumoto ↑ 46' 18 D. Suga 45 S. Kobayashi ↑ 62' 22 S. Haller ↑ 62' 46 R. Noguchi ↑ 66' 39 H. Joo 5 T. Kuwata 35 S. Fukaminato 22 Y. Takahashi ↑ 64' 38 N. Kumata ↑ 81' 3 K. Fujii ↑ 64' 40 R. Nagaki 9 Y. Michiwaki ↑ 64' 28 R. Hisanaga 34 R. Nishitani ↑ 54' 11 T. Kato

Substitutes

21GY. Tanaka 35MY. Nakajima↓ 46' 6MK. Hayao↓ 77' 15MS. Nakano 47MM. Hara 41FM. Naoki↓ 62' 10FA. Suzuki↓ 62' 23FS. Ayukawa↓ 66' 11FM. Kato

Coach: Bartosch Gaul

Substitutes

1GM. Sasaki 21GR. Matsumoto 16MM. Araki↓ 54' 2MI. Konno↓ 64' 19MJ. Seo-Ho↓ 64' 27MA. Yamanaka↓ 64' 7MS. Nakajima↓ 81' 14MD. Yamaguchi 45FT. Ishi

Coach: Yuzo Tamura

Top stats

49%Possession51%

2.91Expected goals (xG)1.03

6Shots on target3

3Corners1

Shots

2Shots off target1

0Hit woodwork0

Attack

1Offsides1

19Free kicks5

Passing

26Throw-ins21

Discipline

4Fouls18

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

8Goal kicks8

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 20 bookmakers

Sanfrecce 74%

16%

Iwaki 10%

Who winsSanfrecce to win (DNB) 89% · 1.12 @ Bet365

1X2Sanfrecce to win 74% · 1.55 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 63% · 3.40 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 83% · 1.75 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 50% · 3.40 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 16% · 3.24 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 58% · 1.67 @ Pinnacle

1X2Iwaki to win 10% · 7.65 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.25

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

5.32

Draw

9.50

Iwaki FC

Double Chanceconsensus

1.05

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw

1.11

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Iwaki FC

3.45

Draw or Iwaki FC

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.95

Yes

1.75

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.15

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

17.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

17.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.13

Over 1.50

5.44

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.46

Over 2.50

2.60

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.20

Over 3.50

1.64

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

3.71

Over 4.50

1.22

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.05

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

9.00

Iwaki FC

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.13

Over 7.50

4.37

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.32

Over 8.50

2.94

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.61

Over 9.50

2.18

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

1.99

Over 10.50

1.75

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.49

Over 11.50

1.45

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win or draw

✓

90% confidence

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to avoid defeat

✓

89% confidence

Over 1.5 goals

✓

83% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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