Grêmio 2-0 Atlético Mineiro: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Grêmio 2-0 Atlético Mineiro.

90+5'

G. Martins

Second yellow card for G. Martins (Grêmio), who is sent off.

90+4'

V. Hugo

Off the woodwork! V. Hugo (Atlético Mineiro), header from a set piece. xG 0.01.

90+3'

A. Franco

Attempt saved. A. Franco (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

90+2'

G. Martins

Yellow card for G. Martins (Grêmio) for foul.

90'

6 minutes of added time.

90'

T. Cuello

Attempt missed. T. Cuello (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

89'

R. Lodi

Attempt missed. R. Lodi (Atlético Mineiro), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

86'

I. Gomes

Attempt blocked. I. Gomes (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.

83'

A. Minda

Attempt missed. A. Minda (Atlético Mineiro), header from a set piece. xG 0.42.

83'

K. Castaño

Substitution, Atlético Mineiro: C. C. Soares comes on for K. Castaño.

77'

F. Amuzu

Substitution, Grêmio: P. Gabriel comes on for F. Amuzu.

76'

L. Duarte

Attempt missed. L. Duarte (Atlético Mineiro), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

76'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

75'

K. Castaño

Attempt missed. K. Castaño (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.02.

73'

V. Hugo

Attempt saved. V. Hugo (Atlético Mineiro), header from a corner. xG 0.01.

73'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

72'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

72'

K. Castaño

Attempt blocked. K. Castaño (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

72'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

71'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

71'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

70'

C. Vinícius

Substitution, Grêmio: M. Braithwaite comes on for C. Vinícius.

66'

Maycon

Substitution, Atlético Mineiro: Natanael comes on for Maycon.

61'

J. Pedro

Attempt missed. J. Pedro (Grêmio), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

60'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

60'

J. Enamorado

Substitution, Grêmio: Tetê comes on for J. Enamorado.

60'

F. Balbuena

Substitution, Grêmio: Dodi comes on for F. Balbuena.

58'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

56'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

56'

V. Hugo

Attempt blocked. V. Hugo (Atlético Mineiro), header from a corner. xG 0.20.

56'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

50'

Wallace

Attempt missed. Wallace (Grêmio), header from a corner. xG 0.08.

50'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

47'

E. Noriega

Goal! Grêmio 2-0 Atlético Mineiro. E. Noriega (Grêmio) scores, assisted by J. Pedro.

46'

V. Hugo

Substitution, Atlético Mineiro: A. Minda comes on for V. Hugo.

46'

Lyanco

Substitution, Atlético Mineiro: I. Gomes comes on for Lyanco.

46'

Marlon

Substitution, Grêmio: C. Paulista comes on for Marlon.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Grêmio 1-0 Atlético Mineiro.

45+4'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

45'

5 minutes of added time.

44'

Bernard

Attempt saved. Bernard (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.

43'

L. Duarte

Attempt missed. L. Duarte (Atlético Mineiro), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

43'

Lyanco

Attempt missed. Lyanco (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

42'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

42'

T. Cuello

Attempt missed. T. Cuello (Atlético Mineiro), header from a corner. xG 0.07.

42'

T. Cuello

Attempt blocked. T. Cuello (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

41'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

38'

Maycon

Attempt saved. Maycon (Atlético Mineiro), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

34'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

34'

Wallace

Attempt blocked. Wallace (Grêmio), header from a corner. xG 0.13.

34'

E. Noriega

Attempt blocked. E. Noriega (Grêmio), header from a corner. xG 0.02.

33'

Grêmio

Corner, Grêmio.

31'

T. Cuello

Yellow card for T. Cuello (Atlético Mineiro) for foul.

29'

Bernard

Attempt blocked. Bernard (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

28'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

18'

Bernard

Attempt blocked. Bernard (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot. xG 0.16.

15'

L. Duarte

Attempt missed. L. Duarte (Atlético Mineiro), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

15'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

11'

C. Vinícius

Goal! Grêmio 1-0 Atlético Mineiro. C. Vinícius (Grêmio) scores, assisted by Weverton.

7'

Atlético Mineiro

Offside, Atlético Mineiro.

1'

Kick-off: Grêmio vs Atlético Mineiro.

Where the money is

171059 EUR matched · captured 4 days, 11 hours ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 73940 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

87.4%

-11.6 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

6.6%

+6.5 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

6.1%

+6.0 vs price

Half time 318 EUR

Draw 2.1 · implied 47.6%

93.2%

+45.5 vs price

Away 4.1 · implied 24.4%

5.3%

-19.1 vs price

Home 3.4 · implied 29.4%

1.5%

-27.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 66155 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

80.4%

-18.6 vs price

Over 36.0 · implied 2.8%

19.9%

+17.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 30 EUR

Under 1.08 · implied 92.6%

100.0%

+7.4 vs price

14 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

11' ⚽ C. Vinícius · assist Weverton1–0

31' T. Cuello · Foul

Half-time · 1–0

46' 🔁 C. Paulista ◂ Marlon

46' 🔁 I. Gomes ◂ Lyanco

46' 🔁 A. Minda ◂ V. Hugo

47' ⚽ E. Noriega · assist J. Pedro2–0

60' 🔁 Dodi ◂ F. Balbuena

60' 🔁 Tetê ◂ J. Enamorado

66' 🔁 Natanael ◂ Maycon

70' 🔁 M. Braithwaite ◂ C. Vinícius

77' 🔁 P. Gabriel ◂ F. Amuzu

83' 🔁 C. C. Soares ◂ K. Castaño

Full-time · 2–0

90'⁺² G. Martins · Foul

90'⁺⁵ G. Martins · Foul

Coaches

Renato Portaluppi

Eduardo Dominguez

Recent form

Grêmio

WHAthletico2-0

WACoritiba1-0

LHCruzeiro2-4

DHInternacional1-1

DARemo1-1

Atlético Mineiro

LHCruzeiro0-1

LAFlamengo2-3

LAMontevideo City Torque0-2

WHCoritiba1-0

WHMontevideo City Torque3-0

About this match

**Copa do Brasil's heating up — Grêmio and Atlético Mineiro collide in a heavyweight clash with playoff dreams on the line.** 🔥

Grêmio's been a mixed bag lately (1W 3D 1L), while Atlético's momentum is sharper (3W in last 5). But the injury lists are *brutal* for both sides — Grêmio without several defensive anchors, Atlético missing their star keeper Everson. This is a survival test wearing a Copa mask.

Key storylines:

- **Weverton vs Grêmio's depleted backline** — the goalkeeper will carry a heavier load with so many defensive bodies out
- **Reinier and Dudu's creativity** — Atlético need their midfield duo to unlock Grêmio's stretched defense
- **Home field edge for Grêmio** — Atlético's away form has been shaky (losses to Flamengo and Montevideo City Torque), and that could matter here

Expected lineups:

- **Grêmio**: Weverton, Marlon, Wallace, G. Martins, J. Pedro, E. Noriega, F. Amuzu, M. Villasanti, F. Krovinović, Tetê, C. Vinícius
- **Atlético Mineiro**: G. Delfim, R. Lodi, V. F. C. Teixeira, Lyanco, Natanael, Maycon, A. Franco, Dudu, Bernard, A. Minda, Reinier

Prediction:

**1-1 draw** — both squads are undermanned and tentative. Could go either way to penalties. ⚽

Where to watch

DGODIRECTV Sports

Match facts

Referee

Davi de Oliveira Lacerda

5.11 yellows/match · 65 matches

Kickoff

01 Nov, 21:30 UTC

Competition

Copa do Brasil

Highlights & clips

Grêmio 3-4-2-1 · 4-1-4-1 Atlético Mineiro

1 Weverton 7.3 6 G. Martins 6.6 17 Dodi 6.5 ↑ 60' 82 Wallace 7.7 18 J. Pedro 7.8 8 E. Noriega 7.9 20 M. Villasanti 7.0 38 C. Paulista 6.6 ↑ 46' 11 Tetê 6.6 ↑ 60' 54 P. Gabriel 6.9 ↑ 77' 22 M. Braithwaite 6.2 ↑ 70' 1 G. Delfim 5.6 3 L. Duarte 7.4 17 I. Gomes 6.5 ↑ 46' 27 A. Minda 6.4 ↑ 46' 6 R. Lodi 7.1 29 C. C. Soares 6.3 ↑ 83' 28 T. Cuello 6.4 21 A. Franco 6.5 15 K. Castaño 7.8 11 Bernard 7.8 2 Natanael 6.7 ↑ 66'

Substitutes

12GG. Grando 2DF. Balbuena↓ 60'7.4 23DMarlon↓ 46'7.2 14DM. Rocha 3DW. Leonardo 4DW. Kannemann 9MF. Amuzu↓ 77'6.7 50MZortéa 10MF. Krovinović 95FC. Vinícius↓ 70'7.3 99FJ. Enamorado↓ 60'6.5 30FM. Nascimento

Coach: Renato Portaluppi

Substitutes

22GEverson 13DLyanco↓ 46'6.2 40DV. F. C. Teixeira 36DK. P. Resende 23DÁ. Preciado 8MMaycon↓ 66'7.3 14MV. Hugo↓ 46'6.2 30MV. Hugo↓ 46'6.2 25MT. Pérez 39MM. Cissé 10MG. Scarpa 92FDudu

Coach: Eduardo Dominguez

Top stats

24%Possession76%

0.53Expected goals (xG)1.34

6Total shots20

2Shots on target4

1Big chances1

4Corners14

Shots

2Shots off target10

2Blocked shots6

4Shots inside box10

2Shots outside box10

0Hit woodwork1

1Big chances scored0

0Big chances missed1

Attack

53Final third entries114

0Offsides1

7Free kicks15

1Fouled in final third6

Passing

230Passes728

157Accurate passes654

15/53 (28%)Long balls20/42 (48%)

4/12 (33%)Crosses10/42 (24%)

12Throw-ins20

Duels

47Duels53

29/63 (46%)Ground duels34/63 (54%)

15/30 (50%)Aerial duels15/30 (50%)

6/9 (67%)Dribbles10/20 (50%)

7Dispossessed7

Defending

17Tackles10

65Tackles won60

9Interceptions6

45Clearances20

41Recoveries51

Discipline

15Fouls7

2Yellow cards1

1Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

12Goal kicks2

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers

Grêmio 37%

30%

Atlético-MG 33%

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 59% · 1.11 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 79% · 1.22 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 9.5 corners 51% · 1.67 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 63% · 1.56 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 30% · 2.30 @ Bet365

BTTSBTTS: No 51% · 1.25 @ Bet365

1X2Atlético-MG to win 33% · 3.20 @ 1xBet

Who winsGrêmio to win (DNB) 56% · 1.78 @ Unibet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 60% · 1.74 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 67% · 2.45 @ William Hill

1X2Grêmio to win 37% · 2.90 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.50

Grêmio

3.00

Draw

2.80

Atlético Mineiro

Double Chanceconsensus

1.40

Grêmio or Draw

1.36

Grêmio or Atlético Mineiro

1.45

Draw or Atlético Mineiro

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.91

Yes

1.80

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.05

Over 0.50

8.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.40

Over 1.50

2.81

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.32

Over 2.50

1.60

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.39

Over 3.50

1.19

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

9.00

Over 4.50

1.03

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.75

Grêmio

2.00

Atlético Mineiro

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.15

Over 7.50

4.30

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.45

Over 8.50

2.62

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.64

Over 9.50

2.16

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.04

Over 10.50

1.73

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.60

Over 11.50

1.42

Under 11.50

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

3.25

Grêmio

2.00

Draw

3.60

Atlético Mineiro

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

2.88

Grêmio

2.25

Draw

3.10

Atlético Mineiro

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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